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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The op Euro has been flopping back and forth with a possible strong cold shot around Nov 21st.  Two runs ago it had Omaha in the upper 20s next Monday, then last night's run low 50s.

Once again, the Euro flipped much colder this run.  There is no consistency.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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49 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

It's a balmy 68 in Lincoln, while 8 hours to the east in Chicago it's 33 with light snow. Even between Omaha and Lincoln there's quite the contrast (68 vs 56). 

acttemp_1280x720.jpg.b6ab38f080a936cd5c1b5c6e1530cbff.jpg

The map is crazy. Currently I am sitting at 32 degrees overcast and light winds. The day has had a winter feel to it. 

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8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Duluth MN: +3.9 degrees

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DULUTH
                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2021
                                          LATITUDE:   46 49 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  92 11 W    

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND 
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  41  30  36  -1  29   0    T  0.5    0 12.7 21 290   M    M   8 18     30 290
 2  38  27  33  -3  32   0 0.00  0.0    T  9.2 17 300   M    M   8        27 310
 3  42  28  35  -1  30   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.6 14 270   M    M   6        20 260
 4  47  26  37   2  28   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.6 17 210   M    M   2 18     23 220
 5  54  34  44   9  21   0 0.00  0.0    0 14.2 23 210   M    M   3        33 190
 6  64  41  53  19  12   0 0.11  0.0    0 12.9 23 260   M    M   3 18     31 280
 7  56  39  48  14  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.3 14 190   M    M   2 1      17 190
 8  52  31  42   8  23   0 0.00  0.0    M  8.5 16 310   M    M   1 1      23 310
 9  54  28  41   8  24   0 0.00  0.0    M  7.9 18 290   M    M   0 8      25 280
10  47  26  37   5  28   0 0.41  0.0    0 12.6 26 100   M    M   6 18     36  90
11  42  33  38   6  27   0 1.05  0.6    0 14.2 24  90   M    M  10 1      35  90
12  36  30  33   1  32   0 0.02  0.4    T 11.2 24 340   M    M  10 1      35 350
13  32  27  30  -1  35   0 0.18  3.0    T  7.1 20 350   M    M  10 128    31  20
14  29  17  23  -7  42   0 0.02  0.4    3  9.1 17 340   M    M   8        26 350
================================================================================
SM  634  417       380   0  1.79  4.9    138.1          M       77              
================================================================================
AV 45.3 29.8                               9.9 FASTST   M    M   6    MAX(MPH)  
                                 MISC ---->    26 100                 36  90   
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:   DULUTH
                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2021
                                          LATITUDE:   46 49 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  92 11 W                   

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16    

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 37.5   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   1.79    1 = FOG OR MIST              
DPTR FM NORMAL:   3.9   DPTR FM NORMAL:    0.80    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY  
HIGHEST:    64 ON  6    GRTST 24HR  1.44 ON 10-11      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS      
LOWEST:     17 ON 14                               3 = THUNDER                  

 

Most of the lakes in Western MN are partially frozen over.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep it’s all relative. Well above normal temps and the water is still partially freezing over in the middle of November bc it’s still getting cold. Shocking indeed.

I don't know if you were trying to prove a point by quoting Duluth's stats or something. Yeah, it's been a warm Fall up until this past week. So? Tomorrow is supposed to be the one above average day here in this current 10-day stretch, should I obsessively post about that like you've been obsessively posting about warmth?

It's like you're tirelessly trying to prove to everyone that this has been a warm SON period. Yes, we know it has. Chill. Stop trying to be the anti-Tom.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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40 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep it’s all relative. Well above normal temps and the water is still partially freezing over in the middle of November bc it’s still getting cold. Shocking indeed.

It is shocking in comparison to the previous years. Even more shocking is water temps in the lower 50's a week and a half ago to ice is a pretty quick ramp up. If the forecast holds there will be fishable ice in Northern WI for gun deer opener, something that is far from an every year occurance.

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5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Might take the afternoon off and enjoy it!

5A244E08-BA39-43AB-858E-3DD4079C8C19.jpeg

SO, per that list it's been even hotter out there. Congrats on that. Meanwhile, I stepped out from work this evening and not only is it totally dark now, but the chill was like a December evening. Roads were dicey this morning as black ice formed where any lingering snow melt caused a re-freeze. I even had to detour as the way to work was blocked off due to an accident.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It is chilly out there w temps at 33F. Nice brief warm-up coming for Wednesday, b4 the bottom drops off. Then, even colder air arrives early next next week (probably coldest air of the season). Lets see if we can get a storm at that point of time. Looks like there will be one, but perhaps way east from SMI??!! Still plenty of changes to occur.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is beautiful. Let the glacier build up there. Will help us in the long-run.

https://theweatherforums.com/uploads/monthly_2021_11/sn10_acc.conus.thumb.png.e4b4e116b7b310b7793a64abca776544.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Good morning from the "valley of the sun" where it has been living by its name since I got here.  I don't think I have seen one single cloud in the sky since I touched down at Sky Harbor at 9:12am local time on Sat morning.  It's unbelievable how consistently blue the sky can be out here.  Your typical La Nina pattern is certainly showing itself out here in the desert SW.  PHX topped out at a balmy 87F yesterday but clouds, yes, they do show up here from time to time...should hold temps down into the low 80's.  Even with the lower sun angle, the suns rays feel real nice at the pool the past few days.  Definitely soaking up that vitamin D...boy, I'm not sure how I'm going to deal with the cold when I get back sometime after Thanksgiving.  The Novemberrrr chill is on Z way my friends....Turkey Day Freezer is showing up on the overnight 0z EPS, in fact, the entire week is looking like winter is trying to settle in for most of the central/eastern CONUS.

 

2.gif

 

0z Euro suggesting a couple sub zero nights up north near @FAR_Weather next week...coldest Thanksgiving Day possibly in decades for someone up north???  If that system on the 21st lays down some snow things could get pretty interesting.

1.png

 

What is starting to look even more interesting, is both the EPS/GEFS are starting to show some good LR signals of the Thanksgiving storm system.  Before then, however, as @Madtownmentioned this morning, the 06z GFS is spinning up quite a doozy for the GL's.  The 0z EPS took a step in that direction...as did the 06z GEFS...

1.gif

 

 

3.gif

 

Storms and rumors of storms....tracking during the upcoming holiday season will be action packed.  Is there a post Thanksgiving storm to finish off the month lurking???  Boy, there is quite a fascinating pattern being dialed up in the models and the active part of the LRC is showing up!

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@TomEnjoy ur stay in Arizona. Its on my list. It is a really nice location to go and relax and enjoy the sunshine and dry climate.

Btw: As you mentioned above in your post about a possible storm, NOAA also thinks the same as well:

Quote: A largely zonal upper
flow pattern will buckle considerably as this energy digs into the
region with temperatures briefly moderating on Sunday in advance of
this developing system with highs climbing into the mid to upper
30s. Colder conditions then return by Monday as the system passes
over the area. Scattered rain/snow showers changing to all snow
showers will be a given with the passage of this deepening system
with at least a chance of accumulating snow depending on how the
storm system evolves/tracks early next week. End Quote
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Its a beautiful morning outside w temps at 30F under crystal clear skies. The trees are almost all bare. You might find a couple of them still holding on to a little color on them. I'd tell ya, one strong gust and they are gone w the wind.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The overnight low here at my house dropped down to 26 and that is the coldest it has been here this season so far. It is now clear here with a temperature of 33 Driving around the city of Grand Rapids yesterday and there are still a lot of leaves on some trees in the city and some rather good color as well. We are now at the midway point for November 2021 and so far the mean at Grand Rapids is 42.0 that is a departure of -0.8 there has officially been 0.86” of precipitation and 1.7” of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean there is 43.9 that is a departure of +0.3 they have reported 1.49” pf precipitation and 1.1” of snow fall. At Holland the current mean is 43.0 that is a departure of -0.3 there has been a total of 1.74” of precipitation they do not keep a record of snow fall at Holland for some reason. To the east at Lansing the mean there is 42.6 that is a departure of +0.3 They only have reported 0.27” of precipitation and just 0.1” of snow fall. It looks like here in west Michigan most of the precipitation and snow fall so far has been from lake effect. On the east side of the state Detroit has had 0.57” of precipitation and 0.7” of snow fall. At Flint just 0.20” of precipitation and only 0.1” of snow fall at Saginaw 0.30” precipitation and 0.4” of snow fall.

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

 

0z Euro suggesting a couple sub zero nights up north near @FAR_Weather next week...coldest Thanksgiving Day possibly in decades for someone up north???  If that system on the 21st lays down some snow things could get pretty interesting.

 

Only have to go back to 2014 with widespread -10s for the area.  Prior to that I think 1988 or 1989 holds the next coldest memory for cold on Thanksgiving.   

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13 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I don't know if you were trying to prove a point by quoting Duluth's stats or something. Yeah, it's been a warm Fall up until this past week. So? Tomorrow is supposed to be the one above average day here in this current 10-day stretch, should I obsessively post about that like you've been obsessively posting about warmth?

It's like you're tirelessly trying to prove to everyone that this has been a warm SON period. Yes, we know it has. Chill. Stop trying to be the anti-Tom.

I'll wait until it's winter down here to post about current observations. Of course if we only posted winter stuff, this forum would be dead, but after all this is a winter weather forum, so I apologize for making you upset. Just make sure you apply the same rules to everyone else.😉 

Tom did say he wanted "balance". Funny, how when we had our first hard freeze this fall, I posted about that. Or when we had our first flakes I posted about that too.

Any other rules I'm breaking moderator?

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

SO, per that list it's been even hotter out there. Congrats on that. Meanwhile, I stepped out from work this evening and not only is it totally dark now, but the chill was like a December evening. Roads were dicey this morning as black ice formed where any lingering snow melt caused a re-freeze. I even had to detour as the way to work was blocked off due to an accident.

Never had black ice before? 

You're right though, being within a degree or two of a record high is irrelevant. My bad. Record lows will only be posted going forward. Definitely not near record lows either.

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

Only have to go back to 2014 with widespread -10s for the area.  Prior to that I think 1988 or 1989 holds the next coldest memory for cold on Thanksgiving.   

D**n, I forgot how cold it got back then...crazy to think it can get that cold up your way in late Nov.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Good morning from the "valley of the sun" where it has been living by its name since I got here.  I don't think I have seen one single cloud in the sky since I touched down at Sky Harbor at 9:12am local time on Sat morning.  It's unbelievable how consistently blue the sky can be out here.  Your typical La Nina pattern is certainly showing itself out here in the desert SW.  PHX topped out at a balmy 87F yesterday but clouds, yes, they do show up here from time to time...should hold temps down into the low 80's.  Even with the lower sun angle, the suns rays feel real nice at the pool the past few days.  Definitely soaking up that vitamin D...boy, I'm not sure how I'm going to deal with the cold when I get back sometime after Thanksgiving.  The Novemberrrr chill is on Z way my friends....Turkey Day Freezer is showing up on the overnight 0z EPS, in fact, the entire week is looking like winter is trying to settle in for most of the central/eastern CONUS.

 

2.gif

 

0z Euro suggesting a couple sub zero nights up north near @FAR_Weather next week...coldest Thanksgiving Day possibly in decades for someone up north???  If that system on the 21st lays down some snow things could get pretty interesting.

1.png

 

What is starting to look even more interesting, is both the EPS/GEFS are starting to show some good LR signals of the Thanksgiving storm system.  Before then, however, as @Madtownmentioned this morning, the 06z GFS is spinning up quite a doozy for the GL's.  The 0z EPS took a step in that direction...as did the 06z GEFS...

1.gif

 

 

3.gif

 

Storms and rumors of storms....tracking during the upcoming holiday season will be action packed.  Is there a post Thanksgiving storm to finish off the month lurking???  Boy, there is quite a fascinating pattern being dialed up in the models and the active part of the LRC is showing up!

12z GFS is getting alot closer, but not quite there yet.

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49 minutes ago, Tom said:

D**n, I forgot how cold it got back then...crazy to think it can get that cold up your way in late Nov.

I had to look up the exact date because it sticks in my mind.  Nov 8 2003 was firearm deer opener for minnesota, much of northern minnesota had -10s for lows that morning.  Trees crack as loud as a gun when it gets that cold, warmed to the 40s within 48 hours though.   

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Nov 5th, 1996 I had 5F in the evening (7 pm) at my place in NMI, just a few miles from the big water. Don't remember if it got even colder by morning or not. It can get cold early in the Northlands.

As for down here in the banana-belt, we had 26F and ice covered puddles this (coldest yet) morning of the season.

GRR staying tuned on the potential..

Quote
At this time the upcoming weekend weather looks fairly quiet in
zonal flow pattern with temps near to slightly above normal.
Pattern then turns more active again for early next week when
next trough and surge of cold air arrives from the northwest. This
may be preceded by a developing/deepening sfc cyclone on Monday
with a synoptic rain to snow/wind scenario before the higher
confidence lake effect pattern settles in, but the details are
still sketchy at this point.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Beautiful weather in KC...again! (70's for highs) Its been a very nice fall. 

 

Lets enjoy fall before we get the white gold. We're always too impatient. 

 

Let's have a big Dec/Jan/Feb....come on snow, for everyone.

Did the Chiefs find their way again?? IF we handle Dallas this Sunday, we just might be back!!!

 

 

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