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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


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First below 0F (-3.4F) wind chill. 15F with a 20kt sustained wind. 

Not going to last long but it's flat out cold here now.

PXL_20211125_132818596.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I’m grateful for everything and everyone who has made an impact in my life.  I’m grateful for this community and all that it brings.  Hope you all have a blessed and delicious Thanksgiving feast!

Speaking of which, I prepped this 23 pounder on Tuesday…


 

 

Your vid isn't showing for me, but enjoy that big bird and hope you have a memorable Thanksgiving with your fam. Same greeting goes out to all here on our platform! 43F and rainy here attm.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Your vid isn't showing for me, but enjoy that big bird and hope you have a memorable Thanksgiving with your fam. Same greeting goes out to all here on our platform! 43F and rainy here attm.

@TomYes....the vid was not working for me either, so I was not able to see that delicious Turkey you were cooking....no worries, I am sure it looked delicious.......Enjoy!!

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Just now, Niko said:

@TomYes....the vid was not working for me either, so I was not able to see that delicious Turkey you were cooking....no worries, I am sure it looked delicious.......Enjoy!!

Ahh crap, it’s bc I recorded it using the iPhone camera instead of using a different app.  I’ll share the final product later today!  Have a splendid day!  

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

Ahh crap, it’s bc I recorded it using the iPhone camera instead of using a different app.  I’ll share the final product later today!  Have a splendid day!  

Thanks amigo...you as well!

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Happy Thanksgiving. Just 0.01" of rain fall here so far today. The overnight low was 44 and the current temperature with cloudy skies is 45.  Last year Thanksgiving's H/L was 45/40.

0.3" as of 10am and counting. November won't be remembered here as a wet month like Oct, but we've avoided the dryness others have been plagued with. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours as well!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Our temp has been lower a few times, but it's easily the coldest "feel" of the season so far this morning.  We are in the mid 20s with a strong wind.  We won't go above freezing today so I had to get my heated bird bath out on the patio.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@Clinton

Need 48h maps like that. Just sayin

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

No doubt but there is nothing here for the next 10 days so forgive me for looking ahead. 

3 hours ago, Niko said:

@Clintonyour area gets clobbered w this one. Lets hope it stays its course! Rooting for ya bud!

Dittos to what he said!!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like we'll finish with 2 days of measurable precip this month (10th, 13th). Today will be the last below normal day of the month as well which means 23/30 days will have been at or above normal. Currently +3.7 for the month.

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 57. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of sprinkles after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 37. Light west southwest wind.
Saturday
A chance of sprinkles before 9am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 56. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. North northwest wind 5 to 13 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 60.
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16 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

You're invited to my post Thanksgiving feast this Saturday at my other home in Santa Cruz, CA. Masks are required for all residents and guests when there are visitors. The police will be knocking on the door periodically to check that everybody is wearing their masks. Violations could result in imprisonment. 

10-day GFS models

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5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Yup GFS goes crazy starting Dec 6th. Lets hope its on to something!

Meanwhile, 12z Euro flashed something that caught my eye for the 4th, so who knows. Storms, storms, and rumors of storms, lol

 

20211125 12z Euro h222 Surface.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

You're invited to my post Thanksgiving feast this Saturday at my other home in Santa Cruz, CA. Masks are required for all residents and guests when there are visitors. The police will be knocking on the door periodically to check that everybody is wearing their masks. Violations could result in imprisonment. 

10-day GFS models

Get your political crap out of here!!

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55 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Meanwhile, 12z Euro flashed something that caught my eye for the 4th, so who knows. Storms, storms, and rumors of storms, lol

 

20211125 12z Euro h222 Surface.PNG

Amigo..this has huge potential. My local forecaster earlier this evening called it out fast to the viewers and mentioned the potential for big snow next week and he even mentioned (5-8inches w this one is a possibility) Stay tuned for this. Very active week coming up.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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53 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo..this has huge potential. My local forecaster earlier this evening called it out fast to the viewers and mentioned the potential for big snow next week and he even mentioned (5-8inches w this one is a possibility) Stay tuned for this. Very active week coming up.

It's nice to be able to be "tuned in" after last winter.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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59 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Was last winter warm and dry?

No, it was just "weird". For my town, almost everything missed by mere miles, mostly N, but W, and E, and even S. I've endured 2 or 3 like that in my lifetime. Winter dice do come up snake eyes now and again.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Rainfall totaled a respectable 0.45" here today.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Further north..

image.png.37cd30008dac6069bb358790f774f8b3.png

Man! they've also had some serious winds in NMI with these CF's. This was yesterday, but Frankfort gusted to 68 MPH with the prior system.

image.png.4c0546c158e1ea032d0595ce32115830.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

No, it was just "weird". For my town, almost everything missed by mere miles, mostly N, but W, and E, and even S. I've endured 2 or 3 like that in my lifetime. Winter dice do come up snake eyes now and again.

It was definitely a weird Winter for Marshall. I remember my area getting snow, while yours was spare. Kinda like a "Dry Slot" in between. I don't think I have ever seen that before bud.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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It's a chilly 25 this morning but the winds have switched to the south and the warm up is beginning. The GFS and Euro are showing a major change in the pattern starting on the 4th.  The GFS has a parade of major snow storms and a strong artic outbreak including a 1060mb artic high.  Winter could arrive with a vengeance so enjoy the warm up, finish up your outdoor chores things look to get fun soon!  #58daycycle

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Welcome to Black Friday. Growing up in Alpena and Bay City I do not remember calling it "Black Friday" it was in fact just the day after Thanksgiving. Yes it was the start of the Christmas shopping season and stores had the after Thanksgiving sales but they did not call it "Black Friday" and it was the day of the lighting of the city Christmas tree.
Anyway yesterdays light rain changed to light snow here around 5 PM but there was not much snow here and just a trace in on the ground this AM. The overnight low here was 27 with a some wind overnight. At this time it is cloudy and 27.

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56 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's a chilly 25 this morning but the winds have switched to the south and the warm up is beginning. The GFS and Euro are showing a major change in the pattern starting on the 4th.  The GFS has a parade of major snow storms and a strong artic outbreak including a 1060mb artic high.  Winter could arrive with a vengeance so enjoy the warm up, finish up your outdoor chores things look to get fun soon!  #58daycycle

Buckle up bud! 😉

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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A light dusting of snow on rooftops here this am. Very noticeable with a dark brown building theme. Must've caught one stray SHSN off Lk Mich. Slow fall of temps all night with 7 hrs of winds gusting 25-30 mph. You know it's not the warm season when winds gust during the normally calm hours. WC's in the upper teens gonna feel nasty cold.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Clinton, I did some digging into the LR pattern and from what I'm seeing (I was waiting for the CPC maps to update) is the W NAMER/PAC NW unusual warmth to begin flipping big time as we turn towards Week 1 of DEC.  Using the strat map below, it appears there will be a "brief" transient period to open DEC allowing for a surge of warmth from a storm system that has been on my radar using the BSR from earlier in Nov.  I recall this storm that formed over the Aleutians back in mid Nov (the start of a wave train) had a lot of blocking to the north of it and I was expecting to see more HP to form across Canada.  The GFS op runs are going ballistic with the cold and affirms the idea which the BSR is suggesting that massive COLD Canadian HP's will ultimately "seed the cold" into the pattern post 4th.  I do see, however, a signal for a SER in this pattern along with the lack of a -NAO/-AO block.   This will keep the pattern very active but with transient cold/warm periods through mid DEC.  Our members up north won't have to worry about their snow pack melting in between systems but those of us farther south will.  Nevertheless, the fun will begin for most of the Sub once we get into the opening days of DEC.

Notice at the end of the animation below, the blues which will indicate a trough to begin sliding down in typical La Nina fashion through W NAMER into the central Plains/Upper MW.  This will bring us out towards the beginning of Week 2 in DEC when I feel the colder pattern will start to "press" farther S/SE.

1.gif

 

On top of that, the Euro OP is showing a Strat Warming event across NW NAMER to open DEC...just another LR signal that NW/W NAMER will fill up with brutal cold and has "eyes" for the west/central CONUS.

 

5.png

 

It does appear that we are finally going to see some #realwinter wx for our western Sub returning but not in the immediate future.

 

Meantime, the active eastern Sub will continue in the near term & mid range, of which, our next storm we will likely be tracking for the following weekend to open up DEC.  0z EPS members are signaling a growing possibility of an OHV track...one of the LRC's "hot spot" storm tracks.  I haven't focused on which part of the LRC cycle this is but I will try to dive more deeply into this over the weekend.  I have family here and one of my good friends is also visiting so my time will be sparse.  Plus, I'll be out and enjoying the sunshine and soaking up Vitamin D poolside!  Talk about a "boring" pattern, ay??  Not gonna complain...

Screen Shot 2021-11-26 at 6.36.59 AM.png

 

0x EPS showing some big hits the following weekend....Lower Lakes/OHV cutter in the works???

 

1.png

 

2.png

 

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7 minutes ago, Niko said:

All eyes to next weekend. Snow could return w/a vengeance again in SMI and this time for many on this forum.

Huh?? I see nothing but warm cutters on the GFS. But I'd pay good $$ to be in MQT when/if this scenario played-out:

image.png.f892162d0fbce626b8cfd001364092ba.png

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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13 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I did some digging into the LR pattern and from what I'm seeing (I was waiting for the CPC maps to update) is the W NAMER/PAC NW unusual warmth to begin flipping big time as we turn towards Week 1 of DEC.  Using the strat map below, it appears there will be a "brief" transient period to open DEC allowing for a surge of warmth from a storm system that has been on my radar using the BSR from earlier in Nov.  I recall this storm that formed over the Aleutians back in mid Nov (the start of a wave train) had a lot of blocking to the north of it and I was expecting to see more HP to form across Canada.  The GFS op runs are going ballistic with the cold and affirms the idea which the BSR is suggesting that massive COLD Canadian HP's will ultimately "seed the cold" into the pattern post 4th.  I do see, however, a signal for a SER in this pattern along with the lack of a -NAO/-AO block.   This will keep the pattern very active but with transient cold/warm periods through mid DEC.  Our members up north won't have to worry about their snow pack melting in between systems but those of us farther south will.  Nevertheless, the fun will begin for most of the Sub once we get into the opening days of DEC.

Notice at the end of the animation below, the blues which will indicate a trough to begin sliding down in typical La Nina fashion through W NAMER into the central Plains/Upper MW.  This will bring us out towards the beginning of Week 2 in DEC when I feel the colder pattern will start to "press" farther S/SE.

1.gif

 

On top of that, the Euro OP is showing a Strat Warming event across NW NAMER to open DEC...just another LR signal that NW/W NAMER will fill up with brutal cold and has "eyes" for the west/central CONUS.

 

5.png

 

It does appear that we are finally going to see some #realwinter wx for our western Sub returning but not in the immediate future.

 

Meantime, the active eastern Sub will continue in the near term & mid range, of which, our next storm we will likely be tracking for the following weekend to open up DEC.  0z EPS members are signaling a growing possibility of an OHV track...one of the LRC's "hot spot" storm tracks.  I haven't focused on which part of the LRC cycle this is but I will try to dive more deeply into this over the weekend.  I have family here and one of my good friends is also visiting so my time will be sparse.  Plus, I'll be out and enjoying the sunshine and soaking up Vitamin D poolside!  Talk about a "boring" pattern, ay??  Not gonna complain...

Screen Shot 2021-11-26 at 6.36.59 AM.png

 

0x EPS showing some big hits the following weekend....Lower Lakes/OHV cutter in the works???

 

1.png

 

2.png

 

Thanks and enjoy your holiday!

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12 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I did some digging into the LR pattern and from what I'm seeing (I was waiting for the CPC maps to update) is the W NAMER/PAC NW unusual warmth to begin flipping big time as we turn towards Week 1 of DEC.  Using the strat map below, it appears there will be a "brief" transient period to open DEC allowing for a surge of warmth from a storm system that has been on my radar using the BSR from earlier in Nov.  I recall this storm that formed over the Aleutians back in mid Nov (the start of a wave train) had a lot of blocking to the north of it and I was expecting to see more HP to form across Canada.  The GFS op runs are going ballistic with the cold and affirms the idea which the BSR is suggesting that massive COLD Canadian HP's will ultimately "seed the cold" into the pattern post 4th.  I do see, however, a signal for a SER in this pattern along with the lack of a -NAO/-AO block.   This will keep the pattern very active but with transient cold/warm periods through mid DEC.  Our members up north won't have to worry about their snow pack melting in between systems but those of us farther south will.  Nevertheless, the fun will begin for most of the Sub once we get into the opening days of DEC.

Notice at the end of the animation below, the blues which will indicate a trough to begin sliding down in typical La Nina fashion through W NAMER into the central Plains/Upper MW.  This will bring us out towards the beginning of Week 2 in DEC when I feel the colder pattern will start to "press" farther S/SE.

1.gif

 

On top of that, the Euro OP is showing a Strat Warming event across NW NAMER to open DEC...just another LR signal that NW/W NAMER will fill up with brutal cold and has "eyes" for the west/central CONUS.

 

5.png

 

It does appear that we are finally going to see some #realwinter wx for our western Sub returning but not in the immediate future.

 

Meantime, the active eastern Sub will continue in the near term & mid range, of which, our next storm we will likely be tracking for the following weekend to open up DEC.  0z EPS members are signaling a growing possibility of an OHV track...one of the LRC's "hot spot" storm tracks.  I haven't focused on which part of the LRC cycle this is but I will try to dive more deeply into this over the weekend.  I have family here and one of my good friends is also visiting so my time will be sparse.  Plus, I'll be out and enjoying the sunshine and soaking up Vitamin D poolside!  Talk about a "boring" pattern, ay??  Not gonna complain...

Screen Shot 2021-11-26 at 6.36.59 AM.png

 

0x EPS showing some big hits the following weekend....Lower Lakes/OHV cutter in the works???

 

1.png

 

2.png

 

That is one sunny outlook. Makes you wanna forget about Winter for a min 😃

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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4 minutes ago, Niko said:

That is one sunny outlook. Makes you wanna forget about Winter for a min 😃

I'm like in a whole different world out here in the desert SW...its really hard to believe that winter is even possible but with the festive lights being put up around town it reminds you of the holiday season.  I was at the resort casino Talking Stick in Scottsdale last night and it was buzzing with many tourists and locals.  Full disclosure, I already purchased my plane ticket to head back home...I'm sure the wx will be an abrupt change to get used to when I get back.

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48 minutes ago, Niko said:

Check out Toms post above amigo! Brace yrself! 😉

To be fair, he basically posted while I was composing my post, lol. Still, it's like 9.5 8.5 days out yet, and not exactly a consensus attm. Would love the Euro to score a LR "nothing but net" swoosh from mid-court, but it'll take some work to erase recent LR busts, heck even MR busts like last Christmas when It insisted on going nuclear over SMI/WOH. Cheers to hoping it's onto something amigo!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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