Jump to content
The Weather Forums

November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

The latest CFSv2 model over the past week or so has shown an interesting North American pattern.  Similarly, as was the pattern back in Oct, it is suggesting a red paint bomb over N Canada.  Instead of it being centered over eastern parts of Canada, its farther north this month..although, one can say there is still hints of ridging in the east.  Could this be another indicator that suggests more blocking??  I believe so.  Hudson Bay HP's???  Yup, you can prob count on that happening.  Another Active southern stream?  Very likely based on other LR signals I'm seeing.  Keep the storm parade going...and the moisture feed flowing...that monstrous PAC jet ain't going away anytime soon.  Get ready @Mr Marine Layer  and those who lurk on here from So Cal...mid/late November has my attn for your region for some pretty potent storms.  #SWFlow

image.png

 

 

 

Some more LR thoughts as my interest has been perked on the idea of #winter after seeing snow falling up north and out west near @CentralNebWeather.  A big reversal in the 10mb strat temps is about to happen over Siberia/Russia over the upcoming week provided by the maps below.  Is this the evidence we need that would indicate a legit chance for winter to get going early in late Nov/early Dec?  The Strat Warm event that started back in mid Oct is showing signs that the cold air showed up in the lower mid latitudes right now. 

1.gif

temp10anim.gif

 

Current status....

 

1.png

 

Day 5....

 

2.png

 

By the week of the 14th, I'm predicting a sustained early onslaught of wintry conditions for the Upper MW/W GL's region.  How far this bleeds south and eastward is contingent upon the blocking up north.  @FAR_Weather and those up north are poised to get their first snows this week of Nov...get your winter gear ready!  This pattern should lock in for a bit and start to build up the glacier up north across Southern Canada where we need it most this time of year.  Don't want to see any "snow holes" develop that mitigate the strength of Arctic Air to bleed on south into the Lower 48.

In terms of the LRC, I think there is a harmonic pattern within the longer term pattern.  I've been studying this part of the developing LRC and I think it is showing up late this weekend into next week.  The Veteran's Day system will be a test. Let's see if this is a repeating pattern bc we've seen something similar when a monster storm wrapped up near Fargo Oct 9th/10th.  IF, there is another piece of energy that tracks out of the SW following the Veteran's Day system and cuts up towards the GL's, then I'll be more convinced there is a 30-33 day harmonic...or...a very short LRC cycle???  Things to ponder on over the coming month of wx observations.

 

image.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The latest CFSv2 model over the past week or so has shown an interesting North American pattern.  Similarly, as was the pattern back in Oct, it is suggesting a red paint bomb over N Canada.  Instead of it being centered over eastern parts of Canada, its farther north this month..although, one can say there is still hints of ridging in the east.  Could this be another indicator that suggests more blocking??  I believe so.  Hudson Bay HP's???  Yup, you can prob count on that happening.  Another Active southern stream?  Very likely based on other LR signals I'm seeing.  Keep the storm parade going...and the moisture feed flowing...that monstrous PAC jet ain't going away anytime soon.  Get ready @Mr Marine Layer  and those who lurk on here from So Cal...mid/late November has my attn for your region for some pretty potent storms.  #SWFlow

image.png

 

 

 

Some more LR thoughts as my interest has been perked on the idea of #winter after seeing snow falling up north and out west near @CentralNebWeather.  A big reversal in the 10mb strat temps is about to happen over Siberia/Russia over the upcoming week provided by the maps below.  Is this the evidence we need that would indicate a legit chance for winter to get going early in late Nov/early Dec?  The Strat Warm event that started back in mid Oct is showing signs that the cold air showed up in the lower mid latitudes right now. 

1.gif

temp10anim.gif

 

Current status....

 

1.png

 

Day 5....

 

2.png

 

By the week of the 14th, I'm predicting a sustained early onslaught of wintry conditions for the Upper MW/W GL's region.  How far this bleeds south and eastward is contingent upon the blocking up north.  @FAR_Weather and those up north are poised to get their first snows this week of Nov...get your winter gear ready!  This pattern should lock in for a bit and start to build up the glacier up north across Southern Canada where we need it most this time of year.  Don't want to see any "snow holes" develop that mitigate the strength of Arctic Air to bleed on south into the Lower 48.

In terms of the LRC, I think there is a harmonic pattern within the longer term pattern.  I've been studying this part of the developing LRC and I think it is showing up late this weekend into next week.  The Veteran's Day system will be a test. Let's see if this is a repeating pattern bc we've seen something similar when a monster storm wrapped up near Fargo Oct 9th/10th.  IF, there is another piece of energy that tracks out of the SW following the Veteran's Day system and cuts up towards the GL's, then I'll be more convinced there is a 30-33 day harmonic...or...a very short LRC cycle???  Things to ponder on over the coming month of wx observations.

 

image.png

It's great that you bring up how similar pattern is with the big storm next Monday and the  Oct 9th/10th storm.  I believe this is most likely a harmonic, Gary often says the most important part of the pattern occurs between Oct 25th and Nov 10th because that's when harmonic storms are most likely to occur. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now, this I haven't seen in my forecast since last Spring 2021: 😃

  • Tuesday
     

    Tuesday: A chance of snow showers after 5pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 45. West wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Partly Sunny
    then Chance
    Snow Showers

    High: 45 °F

  • Tuesday
    Night

    Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 5 to 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Chance Snow
    Showers then
    Mostly Clear

    Low: 30 °F

  • Like 2

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just enough snow to cover the grass.  Trended north and a little weaker at the last minute according to NWS Hastings.  You always hope those aren't trends for the winter.  I would say some places NW or me probably got a couple of inches.  I may end up with 1/2" or a little more as precipitation continues.  It took longer to get down to the low 30's than they predicted, so I think that also cut back on the 1-3" predictions.  

  • Like 4
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is looking to be a dry, chilly week. That is fine because we need to dry up a bit. Highs will primarily be in the 40s all week and lows in the upper 20s to near 30F.  Slight moderation by the weekend, when temps could reach the low 50s (which is back to normal).

  • Like 1

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Cedar Rapids airport reported 25º for a low this morning, lower than any other site in eastern Iowa.  The station down the road from me bottomed at 28.9º.

I'm liking the warmth models are suggesting in the 7-10 day period.  There is still plenty of yard/garden work to do.

  • Like 3
  • Sun 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll see if KC gets their first freeze this week, likely depends on if we can clear out any one of the nights through the week. Going to be close. 

We finished up October with well above average moisture and above average temps. Long range GFS has a cool week through Thursday this week and then well above average temps starting later this weekend into what appears most of next week. We'll see how warm we get. (2) big storms in there towards mid month per the 06z GFS. Pattern looks to remain very active, but warm overall. Hopefully as we head towards turkey day and early Dec. we start locking some cold air in throughout the country. 

First snow event for Nebraska, NICE! Hopefully some of you have some pictures of it to show. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome to November. Here is a look at how October ended up in West Michigan.

 October 2021 is now in the record books. It was a warm and wet month to day the least. At Grand Rapids with a mean of 57.0 it was the 7th warmest on record the high for the month was 80 on the 11th there were a total of 12 days with highs of 70 or better. The low for the month was 31 on the 24 and 27th. At Muskegon with a mean of 58.2 it was the 3rd warmest October the high for the month there was 79 on the 11th there were a total of 12 days of 70 or better. The low was 30 on the 27th there was a total of 3.50" of rain. At Holland and Lansing it was also the 3rd warmest October of record. The mean at Holland was 58.2 the high for the month was 82 on the 1st there were a total of 14 days of 70 or better. The low for the month was 32 on the 24th and 27th and there was 5.01" of rain fall. At Lansing the mean for the month was 57.9 the high for the month was 81 on the 11th there was a total of 16 days with highs of 70 or better. The low was 31 on the 24th and there was a total of 5.15" of rain fall.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The overnight low here at my house was 31 and there is frost here and there is ice in the bird bath water. I am sure it has happened before but most of the leaves are still on the trees here and while there is now some color there are still a lot of green leaves on the trees. A shower yesterday dropped 0.04" of rain here. At this time it is clear and 32 here. Oh BTY official low at GRR looks to have been a warmer 36.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Here is a small town west of me as of 8:25 AM.  Nice wet snow.

Eustis.jpg

Looks beautiful.  I think I will have to wait until the very end of the month before the ground turns white, but I think it will be worth the wait this Winter.  Here's to many more snowy mornings.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks beautiful.  I think I will have to wait until the very end of the month before the ground turns white, but I think it will be worth the wait this Winter.  Here's to many more snowy mornings.

Probably snowing as hard now as we have had.  Not accumulating on the streets.  Only 32 degrees so it sure has that winter feel.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next weekend looks perfect to start to winterize the yard after a cold week with scattered lake effect rain/snow showers.    Unless something changes, current forecast is Mid 50's, split flow and ridging.  Should be a nice fall weekend before bigger storms come back into the picture mid month.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The long term forecast would seem to shut Tx/Okla out largely.  However we’re not used to “real” winter until January.  
meanwhile I fed my magnolia tree and am prepping for winter.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man it looks like they won't be making snow until the end of November or the start of December. And this cold snap is just enough to get the water temp cold to burn when you jump in with a full wetsuit. Bad scenario for me, snowboarding pushed back and we get the cold blast early enough to make the water really cold. What a bunch of BS.

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/27/2021 at 10:27 AM, tStacsh said:

I just meant a heavy snow event up there.  Models are so far off right now in the long range, who knows what to think?  GFS has a huge SE ridge and big cutter near the end of the run.  Euro is completely different 7-10 days out.  GFS has several days in the 60's NOV 6-10.  I HIGHLY DOUBT that will happen, but it would fit the trend of Fall so far.  Cold shots followed by a period of nice warmth.  But that happens in a very active pattern.  

Hate being right.  Unless something changes all models now support a decent warm up during this time frame in the center of the nation.  Would hate for that pattern to take shape over the next couple months.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's great that you bring up how similar pattern is with the big storm next Monday and the  Oct 9th/10th storm.  I believe this is most likely a harmonic, Gary often says the most important part of the pattern occurs between Oct 25th and Nov 10th because that's when harmonic storms are most likely to occur. 

You guys are lucky to see his wx segments on TV bc I’m sure he provides more details wrt the LRC pattern. Did he mention anything about this potential harmonic?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Tom said:

You guys are lucky to see his wx segments on TV bc I’m sure he provides more details wrt the LRC pattern. Did he mention anything about this potential harmonic?

Not about that particular storm but he has in the past.  Every year he emphasizes how important the 2 week period between Oct 25 and Nov 10th is.  What I have realized is that time period seems to correlate to harmonics that appear later in the pattern.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35F and some seriously heavy and very robust frost greeted me on this first morning of November. Had not even a hint of frost until today. Guess I'll be using the covered parking the rest of the week..

  • Like 3

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Not about that particular storm but he has in the past.  Every year he emphasizes how important the 2 week period between Oct 25 and Nov 10th is.  What I have realized is that time period seems to correlate to harmonics that appear later in the pattern.

Yeah, like when there's a big powerhouse Nov storm, that later cycles thru in Jan

  • Like 2

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This weeks chilly, then that’s a lotta red…

One big storm around mid month but it’s rain unless you’re in the western Dakotas and there’s no cold air behind it as temps are still above normal after the system passes

floop-gfs-2021110100.sfct_anom.conus.gif

 

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Hate being right.  Unless something changes all models now support a decent warm up during this time frame in the center of the nation.  Would hate for that pattern to take shape over the next couple months.  

You two should just be founding members of the "GFS LR BS Club" and call it a day!

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MIKEKC said:

First snowflakes of the season here in KC. Wet snow mixed in with the rain, 36 degrees. YUCK! I'm okay with this in early Nov. BUT, DEC....it better be all SNOW!!

 

GO WINTER!

I just saw that on TV, I was hoping one of you guys were seeing them.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Tom said:

Remember that LR GFS temp map you posted a while back (Oct 17th) that showed a blow torch to end Oct and open Nov?  It's pretty obvious that it isn't turning out quite that well...I know your just posting these maps to show the warmth but why not show some balance when its not??  Personally, I'm not perfect and make bad calls but in all fairness, I've gotten a lot better highlighting both sides of the spectrum.  I have posted on the record warmth in Oct, esp around the GL's region, but going against those who seek colder weather and snow isn't necessarily fair. I dunno if your doing it on purpose or not but I don't think I've seen you post or comment when the weather turns cold.

 

I'm pretty sure I got ridiculed by some (quietly) on here when I was calling for a major trough 2-3 weeks back that would develop across the eastern CONUS to close out Oct.  That was during a time when the models had zero clue and it ended up verifying.  Turned out to be a D**n good LR call. 

Speaking on the topic of LR maps, the one you're showing above.  Are you posting that to prove or predict it'll be warm???  Again??  My call, after the Veteran's Day system (give or take a day or two), I'm watching for your area to get a blast of real chilly air as the pattern will have a winter bite in the air 🌨️.  I made a LR call about a week ago to look for a storm during this period and its prob going to verify as well.

BTW, you can call me out anytime, I don't mind taking constructive criticism.  That's how I grow.  I'll be honest, I like hearing your side of the story the more I read your comments.  I welcome the balance on this forum.  Happy Monday!

 

 

 

I’m giving the balance to this forum that you said you like.😁

I don’t understand why you and Grizz are so hung up on the 8-14 day CPC outlook for this week being wrong. They certainly weren’t wrong for August, September and most of October when we were supposed to be flipping seasons into an early fall with early snowfall and freezing temps were they? But that was the prediction here, which is fine. This is a winter weather forum after all😉

I thought I’ve made it pretty clear before that I’m not a cold weather fan, but rather a snowstorm/blizzard/severe weather fan, so no I’m not going to post maps that just shows it’s cold(zzzzzzzzzzzz), but I will post about impending big snowstorms which as you know, we haven’t had any.

Meanwhile, the political hacks at the CPC updated their outlook for November yesterday.

1B09444D-CBCA-4D1F-9D02-05343EAEC0E3.jpeg

BCE91A92-19B1-440A-B894-787BDA4CD475.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

 

You two should just be founding members of the "GFS LR BS Club" and call it a day!

Don't look at the Euro or other models because they support it,  as well as NOAA as we flip to near to above average in November.  Sorry it doesn't support the three people wishcasting epic November and Decembers.  Same old every year, outside of 7 years ago.  That won't happen again in a long time, but we sure have been having consistent non starters to winter.  Having some flakes in early November is completely normal.  People on here act like it's the next coming of an ice age.    Oh no we might get some flakes this week then flip to near 55-60 degrees.  EPIC.  Hey the 12Z GFS has a storm and "cold" (brrr 20's in November) at the end of it's run.  Certainly will happen because it fits a narrative, right? 

I just hope we get a near big-dog this year.  It's been a long time.   

My prediction.  Completely near normal winter.  Gonna be some cold, some warm cutters and there will be snow, rain, sleet and ice.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Wow looks like it out preformed the models.

Yep, especially west.  It didn't get quite as far east as models had predicted.  I think they officially had me for about 1.5", but of course much of that was melting on contact.  Only a few places with snow left in my area, but the temp has only hit about 35 degrees.  Raw day for sure.  Hard freezes coming up in the next few nights.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Don't look at the Euro or other models because they support it,  as well as NOAA as we flip to near to above average in November.  Sorry it doesn't support the three people wishcasting epic November and Decembers.  Same old every year, outside of 7 years ago.  That won't happen again in a long time, but we sure have been having consistent non starters to winter.  Having some flakes in early November is completely normal.  People on here act like it's the next coming of an ice age.    Oh no we might get some flakes this week then flip to near 55-60 degrees.  EPIC.  Hey the 12Z GFS has a storm and "cold" (brrr 20's in November) at the end of it's run.  Certainly will happen because it fits a narrative, right? 

I just hope we get a near big-dog this year.  It's been a long time.   

My prediction.  Completely near normal winter.  Gonna be some cold, some warm cutters and there will be snow, rain, sleet and ice.  

If you're holding your breath for the day either global shows endless cold 2+ wks out (especially on Nov 1st) just quit or you'll expire. Ain't gonna happen! Cold waves that do happen in Nov are usually10 days max, then the rubber band snaps back and we torch well into Dec. Even Dec's can be late launchers and we've had a ton of total dumpster fire Dec's lately but we've also had epic Dec's as recently as 2016 and 2017. I don't want to waste cold on Nov anyways, it's always marginal for snow production, and falls on warm ground giving the snow zero staying power. Besides, Nina's aren't normally about cold, more like 07-08 when marginal temps worked out just right. Now, having said that, 2nd year Nina's do have a history of "coin tossing" their way into some historic cold periods. That, timed just right with a Big Dog system is what I'm hoping for. 

THIS is what I want:

Quote

A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST...COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP IN AND CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. WINDS WILL RAMP UP SUDDENLY IN THE
20Z-00Z TIME FRAME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COMMENCE...WITH
KAZO...KBTL AND KGRR POTENTIALLY SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
VSBY/S MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH TIME FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WILL RESULT.

 

 

Now this is impressive...

Barometer: 28.94" (980.7 mb)

That is for here as of 5:53am!!

 

  • Like 4

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First teens of the season in Iowa-- and it's a doozie from AWOS. Temp goes below the dewpoint and defies physics in Sheldon!! image.png.03aaf587f124df1ba625d3702e9d3737.png

  • Like 3
  • scream 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Signs that many of us will be able to enjoy some true "Indian Summer" weather conditions late this weekend into early next week since a lot of us will have already experienced our 1st freezes of the season.  How long will this last???  It appears that a streak of 5+ days of nothing but sunshine and highs in the upper 50's to near 60F seem like a good bet around here.  Perfect wx to do some leaf clean up, last mow's of the season, winterizing, etc...bc what I see coming after this warmer period will be a preview of winter.  Buckle up...it's gonna get bumpy around Vet's Day!

Meantime, it's a chilly morning with temps dropping into the low 30's locally.  I saw some good frost yesterday but I'm sure today it'll be even more widespread.  LOT will discontinue issuing frost/freeze advisories for the season (check that off the list).  Next up, I'll be looking forward to the 1st snow advisories/watch's of the season....speaking of which, those up North/NW should be gearing up for a big system around Vet's Day.

The latest 0z EPS/GEFS are now beginning to lock on a massive system for Vet's Day...severe wx, snowstorm (Blitz?)...this one will have dynamics.  Everything about this 0z EPS snow mean animation speaks for itself...#winteriscoming #NorthAmericanGlacier

 

1.gif

 

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Tom said:

Woah, the Euro Weeklies from yesterday...my, oh my....I'll post about this later today...☃️🌨️ Happy Holidays!

I was just looking at them also.  Did you see the MJO ensembles going into phase 7 at the end of the month?

0d40d5_747cac010b9e4e7199ffa54f12478e68~mv2.webp

  • Like 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was just looking at them also.  Did you see the MJO going into phase 7 at the end of the month?

0d40d5_747cac010b9e4e7199ffa54f12478e68~mv2.webp

While not amplified, it does do some interesting things...I like that it doesn't roll into the warm phases and stays in the "null phase"...

1.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

If you're holding your breath for the day either global shows endless cold 2+ wks out (especially on Nov 1st) just quit or you'll expire. Ain't gonna happen! Cold waves that do happen in Nov are usually10 days max, then the rubber band snaps back and we torch well into Dec. Even Dec's can be late launchers and we've had a ton of total dumpster fire Dec's lately but we've also had epic Dec's as recently as 2016 and 2017. I don't want to waste cold on Nov anyways, it's always marginal for snow production, and falls on warm ground giving the snow zero staying power. Besides, Nina's aren't normally about cold, more like 07-08 when marginal temps worked out just right. Now, having said that, 2nd year Nina's do have a history of "coin tossing" their way into some historic cold periods. That, timed just right with a Big Dog system is what I'm hoping for. 

THIS is what I want:

 

I would pay good money for a good snowstorm (All snow, temp 28 or under 8+ inches)  or long duration bitter cold LES event this year.    

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, 6z GFS has 2 very interesting systems between the 11th and 15th. That 2nd one has a strange track cutting straight north thru the middle of the sub. This time frame looks intriguing. End of the run has another L developing in SE CO.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Popcorn 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking forward to the nice warm-up this weekend (temps in the 50s and dare I say approaching 60F in spots), after a few mornings that will have encountered temps in the mid to upper 20s. A "Hard Freeze" is on the way for many, so, "Indian Summer" is on the way as well. Perfection weather for any last minute clean-up outside the house and to finally prepare for Winter.

Currently, my temps are hovering in the 30s under mostly sunny skies. Strong CF approaching today (mainly dry), but could trigger a few sprinkles or even some flurries. A mainly dry week ahead w tons of sunshine each and every day.

  • Like 2

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, james1976 said:

FWIW, 6z GFS has 2 very interesting systems between the 11th and 15th. That 2nd one has a strange track cutting straight north thru the middle of the sub. This time frame looks intriguing. End of the run has another L developing in SE CO.

I always get interested when I see a low in SE Colorado.  

  • Like 1
  • Excited 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The overnight low here at my house was 38, the official overnight low at GRR was 37. There was 0.02" in the rain gauge. At this time it is partly cloudy and 38 here. While the Maple tree across the street is dropping its leaves most of the trees in my area still have most if not all of their leaves still on them. There are Ash trees that have dropped most of their leaves but that is it. I have trees in my yard that are still green yet

  • Like 1
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...