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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, are the models flip flopping run-to-run and the blocking is certainly adding another layer of confusion for them.  For instance, you can see the trend in the 0z GEFS over the past 7 runs.  The culprit...a stronger Archipelago HP and stronger western U.S. ridge.  The year of high lat blocking is playing a role...I'm also seeing more ensemble members shifting SE.  The year of the "SE trend"?  Hmmmm...could be something to watch in the models as the season of storm tracking has begun.  This is going to be my first legit system of the season that officially kicks off "storm tracking"...check that off the bucket list....I'll probably start a storm thread in the next day or two.

 

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0z EPS...I'm really diggin' the expansive coverage of snow over Canada...nature laying down the foundation...

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Looking down the road, towards the start of the Holiday season...is that foundation going to support a colder pattern???  LR GEFS....Warm Arctic = Cold CONUS....Bonus = Snowy times???  The signals are certainly pointing towards a wintry pattern, unlike we have seen in recent years.  I think the last time we had a cold Thanksgiving holiday week was back in '13 or '14.  I do remember one of those years putting up my Christmas Lights and it was pretty darn cold outside.

 

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How about the Euro Weeklies from Monday?  Trending even colder/snowier as we get closer to the aforementioned period above...

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30-day snow mean...

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Tom, the last several runs on the GFS have it quite warm here in KC. Lots of 60's and some 70's....I don't think we had one sub-freezing night in there on the 06z run this morning. Beautiful fall weather. Thanks for all your LR thoughts.

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Models don't seem to have much of a clue beyond the weekend/early-week warmth.  There is no consistency later next week and beyond.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, the last several runs on the GFS have it quite warm here in KC. Lots of 60's and some 70's....I don't think we had one sub-freezing night in there on the 06z run this morning. Beautiful fall weather. Thanks for all your LR thoughts.

Individual Op runs will not have a good handle on the pattern bc of the new blocking patterns that are poised to set up next week.  Follow the ensembles as guidance rather than any individual op run.  

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Detroit already has seen its first flakes of the season. Snowflakes were falling on Nov 2nd, 2021 and first freeze of 29F occurred on Nov 3rd, 2021. Also, the color here is spectacular.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Radar showing a few echoes to my west. Looks ominous, but good to see that blue color just west of my area. Temps are at 34F under mostly cloudy skies. It looks and feels like snow outside.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Radar showing a few echoes to my west. Looks ominous, but good to see that blue color just west of my area. Temps are at 34F under mostly cloudy skies. It looks and feels like snow outside.

I had that same feeling this morning…it’s like you could smell it in the air.  Won’t be long till we are shoveling!

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There was once again trace amounts of snow fall here. Yesterday during my walk there was some light snow falling and it looks like overnight there was some snow as there is some on the car. Yesterday here the high was 44 and the overnight low here was 33. At this time it is cloudy and 35.
 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

I had that same feeling this morning…it’s like you could smell it in the air.  Won’t be long till we are shoveling!

Exactly!

Also, glad you brought up the word "Shoveling" because I think I need a new shovel. Also, my snowblower needs maintenance.

 

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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On 11/3/2021 at 7:37 AM, FAR_Weather said:

Mehh we'll see lol. I got burned on way too many "Dakotas specials" last year to enjoy this right now.

Well would you look at that...

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 2.8"

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Well would you look at that...

Yep, and I was the opposite bookend to your getting burned. If it wasn't just north of me, it was a couple counties east like the Christmas Day event. 😆

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The Northern Lights were AMAZING last night even all the way down to just north of Omaha.

Took this pic just before 3am!

826D7D1E-339E-45A9-8907-62A51B37226B.jpeg

Nice pic! I got some too, but I had to go to bed early so I didn't get them at their best. I'll post later.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 2.8"

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Nice pic! I got some too, but I had to go to bed early so I didn't get them at their best. I'll post later.

I was wondering if you were out looking last night seeing all the other ones coming in from NoDak. You could see them with your naked eye correct? My pic is a 20 second exposure, otherwise they were only barely visible.

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10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The Northern Lights were AMAZING last night even all the way down to just north of Omaha.

Took this pic just before 3am!

826D7D1E-339E-45A9-8907-62A51B37226B.jpeg

The planetary K-Index reached a surprisingly 7 for SEMI last nite, but no cigar. I think it has to be an 8 or better. Anyhow,  close call. An 7 can be sometimes close enough, if ya lucky. One thing is for sure, I would have definitely wanted to  see the northern lights imby.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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NOAA:

The frontal boundary will only slip into the northern Ohio Valley,
and looks to then be lifting back north on Tuesday, as a wave of low
pressure comes out of the Central Plains. Lack of moisture and exact
placement of the mid level fgen/warm front offers up just low chance
pops, as northern stream energy interaction comes into play during
the mid week period as well. As such, the 12z Euro has trended
stronger with the cold front activity Tuesday night as the system
merges with the northern stream trough working through Central
Canada.

BTW: I have noticed that as of lately, weather systems have been trended stronger.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I was wondering if you were out looking last night seeing all the other ones coming in from NoDak. You could see them with your naked eye correct? My pic is a 20 second exposure, otherwise they were only barely visible.

I could kinda see them with the naked eye toward the end of my night out. I went home at about 11pm.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 2.8"

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Temps are really tumbling imby tanite. It is not even 10:00pm and my thermometer is down to 32F already. Coldest nite of the season on tap. Lows bottoming out between 20-25F.

 

Note: its now a little b4 midnight and temps are at 28F. Plenty of nighttime hours left to drop even more.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Temps are really tumbling imby tanite. It is not even 10:00pm and my thermometer is down to 32F already. Coldest nite of the season on tap. Lows bottoming out between 20-25F.

 

Note: its now a little b4 midnight and temps are at 28F. Plenty of nighttime hours left to drop even more.

Enjoy the freeze.

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF...It was nearly 3 weeks ago to the date when I started this thread back on Oct 23rd and made some LR calls.  Let's see how that is turning out...I was anticipating 2 storm systems for next week.  I'll be honest, for a while the models had nothing during the  11/7-11/9 period, but suddenly, the Euro and other models are starting to sniff out a CO Low ejecting out into the Plains and racing NE into the W GL's.  Last night's Euro is the most aggressive, albeit a modest storm, it does produce some good precip for parts of the MW/GL's region.

 

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In back to back fashion, we have our Long awaited Vet's Day storm system....models have been all over the place handling this energy and blocking.  The 0z Euro is back NW and drops some good snow up north... @FAR_Weather and Northwoods peeps back in the game???

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Then, following this storm, we will more than likely see the coldest air of the season as we continue the "step down" towards Winter as we roll ahead this month...the fastest transitional month of the year.  Depending on how this storm forms, many across the heartland could see daytime highs in the 30's!  Brrrr!  Man, some of you in NE/KS will see temps in the 70's this weekend and then highs barely reaching 40F next weekend.  This up's & down's of living in the Plains....volatility remains!

 

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Woah, both the Euro & JMA weeklies are suggesting #winteriscoming right in time for the Thanksgiving holiday week....I'll dig deeper  into this later today.  Heading to the gym and I have a busy day ahead....make it a great day everyone!

Let it snow...🌨️☃️

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The overnight low here was 32 it was mostly cloudy so that did keep the temperatures up. So far this fall season the coldest it has gotten here at my house is 29 but it has gotten down to 25 at the airport. We are now 5 days into November and there are still a lot of leaves on the trees. While the grass is still nice and green it looks to have slowed down in its growth so maybe one more cutting this fall? At this time it is mostly cloudy and 34 here.

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Its going to be a great weekend to get outside in my area.

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WOW! You are correct, beautiful weekend!!! We're not ready for snow quite yet. Let's enjoy fall first. 

I think the Chiefs season is the next 3 weeks...Packers/Raiders/Cowboys

This will tell us if this team has a chance for the playoffs this year. 

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13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Its going to be a great weekend to get outside in my area.

Tab2FileL.png

Indeed sir! Enjoy doing some outside cleaning and preparations for Winter because the weather goes downhill by next weekend. Early next week should be great as well, if ya have time. Then, by end of the week, looks like a storm might be brewing. My highs look a lot colder and there are snowflakes in my forecast at that point of time. Blocking in the works?!

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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26 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The overnight low here was 32 it was mostly cloudy so that did keep the temperatures up. So far this fall season the coldest it has gotten here at my house is 29 but it has gotten down to 25 at the airport. We are now 5 days into November and there are still a lot of leaves on the trees. While the grass is still nice and green it looks to have slowed down in its growth so maybe one more cutting this fall? At this time it is mostly cloudy and 34 here.

Heavy frost imby this morning. Everything covered. Now comes "Indian Summer." Highs next week could approach 60F. Will not last too long though.

BTW: I remember back in 2015, this time in November, when SMI was sizzling into the 70s (upper 70s  to be exact). What a crazy pattern that was.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

Heavy frost imby this morning. Everything covered. Now comes "Indian Summer." Highs next week could approach 60F. Will not last too long though.

This may shape up to be one of the Best Autumns in my book…extended Summer, not to Hot Sept with some cool shots, esp in the beginning of the month…then a warm/wet Oct and now Nov is throwing us the Big transition into Winter.  Could it be well-timed for the Thanksgiving holiday?  That would be the icing on the cake.

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

This may shape up to be one of the Best Autumns in my book…extended Summer, not to Hot Sept with some cool shots, esp in the beginning of the month…then a warm/wet Oct and now Nov is throwing us the Big transition into Winter.  Could it be well-timed for the Thanksgiving holiday?  That would be the icing on the cake.

Indeed. Finally, an Autumn which we can actually enjoy. Its been awhile. Tbh, my favorite time-slot for real snows to begin is on "Black Friday." Let it snow, let it snow thereafter.  Nothing like tracking a major Winterstorm during the Holidays, along side w a hot chocolate.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

This may shape up to be one of the Best Autumns in my book…extended Summer, not to Hot Sept with some cool shots, esp in the beginning of the month…then a warm/wet Oct and now Nov is throwing us the Big transition into Winter.  Could it be well-timed for the Thanksgiving holiday?  That would be the icing on the cake.

I just have a feeling we're going to have a big dog roll through Thanksgiving weekend.  I don't have the cycle length nailed down yet, but a feeling that the Oct 11th part of the pattern may come through then.

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

I'm ready for a nice warm mid-October week.  Oops it's November.   Last year during this time we had record highs.  Looks like a repeat.  Not quite as warm though.  

Last year was an anomaly, ORD had 5 or 6 days of low/mid 70’s to open up the month.  Not even close to a repeat.  Ok, maybe for 5-6 days of sunshine ☀️

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22 minutes ago, Tom said:

Last year was an anomaly, ORD had 5 or 6 days of low/mid 70’s to open up the month.  Not even close to a repeat.  Ok, maybe for 5-6 days of sunshine ☀️

I said not quite as warm

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS goes big next weekend, also has another piece of energy that rotates around and gives Iowa and the lower lakes some snow.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

WestMJim does really good here!

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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7 hours ago, Niko said:

WestMJim does really good here!

Sure does! But tStasch's house across town will be sunny and 70F..guaranteed!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Next weekend is looking mighty stormy in SMI. Big trough shaping place and much colder air moving in. Could be really wet and possibly some snow mixing in. Too early for details on what is going to happen, but here is a tip for ya: any outdoor chores you have, I recommend you take care of this weekend and not the following. Tom will most likely go into more details about this in his upcoming discussions.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Ensembles are still all over the place with how much cold air will get wrapped into this storm.  Hope it goes in a snowy direction.

They are.

This storm has eyes for the MN Metro area and even parts of Iowa. Yby has a potential amigo. All you need is a SE trend.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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