Jump to content

November 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Just two yeas ago on this day DSM recorded it's 3rd earliest below zero occurrence with a -1F. Only the epic cold blast behind the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 has an earlier occurrence.

It caught me off guard as I was checking the climo. Fresh 3" of snow and clear skies....

image.thumb.png.67f181c7abbee52efbebf26fc6f615c7.pngimage.thumb.png.63bfcc0a3aefac90a08dc61374bdc078.png

  • Like 4

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a surprise to see LOT with the "Heavy Snow" wording in my grid this morning...a sign of things to come down the road.  Man, we have seen some dynamic systems this autumn and I'm looking forward to seeing my first flakes later today!

Screen Shot 2021-11-12 at 3.15.07 AM.png

  • Like 3
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Love the Metars coming out here-- almost certain Blizzard conditions in Sioux Lookout, the -SN carried by the observer  doesn't met METAR specs (1/2 mile Vis or less in Snow should be moderate snow (SN) - but it's not here, hence the wind causing the limits in vis. That BLSN was reported in both is likely not due to automated sensors.  Vertical Vis in Sioux Lookout is a dead give a way.  FTR-Vertical Visibility - The distance an observer can see vertically into an undefined ceiling, or the height corresponding to the top of a ceiling light projector beam, or the height at which a ceiling balloon disappears during the presence of an indefinite ceiling. image.thumb.png.2a8ad42fdcbd8fc270796648e7c4fdc4.png

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rise n Shine....we are going to finish off this work week looking and feeling like Winter has arrived for many of us across the MW/GL's.  It'll be interesting to see how strong these instability snow showers develop this afternoon as the cold ULL trough rotates through right when we get peak intensity during the daytime hours.  Congrats to @james1976 for nature delivering a nice B Day gift for ya! 

 

On another note, last night's 0z Euro suggesting the seasons coldest air of the season to begin sliding down south out of Canada into the Upper MW by Day 9/10...the expansive snow cover that is to develop will certainly aid in keep natures freezer in tact.  I'm encouraged to see those snow holes being filled, unlike in years of the past.

@FAR_Weather...daytime highs in the 10's????  Novembrrrr chill is on the way and right on my target period of post Nov 20th.  Mind you, the models had zero cold during this period but have started to flip colder.  This is also a clue to me of this year's LRC cycle length.  I'll dive into more of this during the weekend but I think I got a good idea of the cycle length.  I want to see a few more days of model runs to hone in on it.

1.png

2.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^-- yep near -40F below the avg's in the Prairie Provinces at the time Tom talks about. Above Avg temps for NOV for many locations are going to be wiped away in the next 10 days to even or even below. sfct_anom.conus.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z EPS showing a reversal in temps over North America by Day 10....caused by what appears to be a split in the Polar Vortices....on Black Wednesday, taking a gander at the Northern Hemispheres 500mg pattern, we have developed the North American Vortex.

1.gif

 

1.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS showing a reversal in temps over North America by Day 10....caused by what appears to be a split in the Polar Vortices....on Black Wednesday, taking a gander at the Northern Hemispheres 500mg pattern, we have developed the North American Vortex.

1.gif

 

1.png

 

With a bare ground? Yeah, no thanks. Disgusting.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here at my house I recorded a total of 0.24" of rain yesterday and overnight. With some clearing it dropped down to 37 here and 36 at GRR before the clouds moved back in. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 39 here. Yesterdays wind did a number on the leaves on the trees in my area and while the Oak still have a lot of leaves on them the other trees are either bare or still have a few clinging to them.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^-- yep near -40F below the avg's in the Prairie Provinces at the time Tom talks about. Above Avg temps for NOV for many locations are going to be wiped away in the next 10 days to even or even below. sfct_anom.conus.png

That's funny bc when I go through the 0Z maps for at least my location, it shows the average of the temps for the next 10 days comes out to .8 degrees above average. Now that's less than the 4.2 degrees above average we've been the first 11 days of the month, but it's not wiping it out or putting us below average. In fact we're still going to average above average for the next 10 days if you take the brutally cold Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not sure how much snow fell but at 8 AM I have 2" on the ground. If the temperatures had been about 5° Colder yesterday and last night we would have had a real big time snowstorm as there were times of heavy snow and even several rumbles of thunder. I will post the total water content of yesterdays rain and snow as soon as the snow at the top of my funnel melts so far there is a total of 0.65" in the gauge tube. At this time there is a light mist falling and the current temperature here is 33.

  • Like 4
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good morning from Navarre, Florida, I have a friend getting married today so I got to come back to the Florida panhandle.  The weather here is fantastic 73/54.  I hate that I'm missing some wintery weather back home, I here there are some scattered snow showers in the forecast with a high of 40.  Thanksgiving and the following days look exciting in the long range, hopefully the models start to figure some things out over the weekend.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It took a while but the snow that collected at the top of my rain gauge has now melted (inside of the house) and the numbers are 1. Snow on the ground at observation time 2" now get this total rain and melted snow fall for yesterday and overnight 0.96" So you can just guess how much snow would have fallen if it was 1. It was all snow. 2. it was about 5 degrees colder Bottom line the areas north and north west of Grand Rapids missed a major snow storm by several degrees

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I am not sure how much snow fell but at 8 AM I have 2" on the ground. If the temperatures had been about 5° Colder yesterday and last night we would have had a real big time snowstorm as there were times of heavy snow and even several rumbles of thunder. I will post the total water content of yesterdays rain and snow as soon as the snow at the top of my funnel melts so far there is a total of 0.65" in the gauge tube. At this time there is a light mist falling and the current temperature here is 33.

It took a while but here at my house the total of rain and snow for yesterday and overnight was 0.96"

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Skies are overcast in mby w temps in the 30s. First "Snow" of the season is on the way for SMI. It also remains BN tempwise, except for one day next week, when readings approach the mid to upper 50s, then, temps drop once again. Big drop expected the week after, along w storminess.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good morning from Navarre, Florida, I have a friend getting married today so I got to come back to the Florida panhandle.  The weather here is fantastic 73/54.  I hate that I'm missing some wintery weather back home, I here there are some scattered snow showers in the forecast with a high of 40.  Thanksgiving and the following days look exciting in the long range, hopefully the models start to figure some things out over the weekend.

Have fun amigo and go for a swim since you are there. 😉

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Good morning from Navarre, Florida, I have a friend getting married today so I got to come back to the Florida panhandle.  The weather here is fantastic 73/54.  I hate that I'm missing some wintery weather back home, I here there are some scattered snow showers in the forecast with a high of 40.  Thanksgiving and the following days look exciting in the long range, hopefully the models start to figure some things out over the weekend.

Have fun in the sunshine state!  I, to, traveled this morning and flew to The Valley of the Sun!  71F and sunny with 80’s all weekend into next week.  Nothing but blue skies and perfect temps and calm conditions here through Thanksgiving.  Enjoy the trip!

We were cruising at 40,000 ft at 570 mph.  Got here in record time on a westerly trip to AZ in just 3 hours!  These new Dreamliner's are amazing planes to fly. Wow, I was impressed.  This is the first time that American Airlines used this aircraft to my knowledge on flights to AZ.  I think it’s to maximize passenger capacity bc of the lack of pilots?   🤷‍♂️ Snow bird season has begun…and holidays!

5969C29B-E6EE-4BFB-A9F9-F40D39221197.jpeg

57CED297-1E55-4B68-A05D-B02C391CFCF2.jpeg

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Latest GFS has things looking pretty average around here for the foreseeable future ... if it's correct.  I guess that's better than the blowtorch that was October (and November 2020).  Hopefully we can eek out a measurable snow by the end of the month.  

Same with the Euro. November is going to be another flop too.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know, I know, we're a whopping 3 days past the anniversary of the storm and tragic ending. But, do yourself a favor and catch this new docu-film. This is better than anything I remember seeing on the event, and prolly as good or better than a (good) History channel episode.

 

  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Latest GFS has things looking pretty average around here for the foreseeable future ... if it's correct.  I guess that's better than the blowtorch that was October (and November 2020).  Hopefully we can eek out a measurable snow by the end of the month.  

Whether this ends up being accurate or not, I've learned over the years here that it's never a good sign when Major Tom goes west. Especially for me since I'm in the same general storm track-way as Chi-town. The rare exception is when a clipper comes in from the NW and just misses his backyard but gets SMI. Kinda like tomorrow's event, and that biggie back in Dec of 2017 that gave this region 8-12"

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Bumped up to a high of 70 now in my grids! Short lived warmth before it falls back into the mid 40s on Wednesday 

749C335A-D0AE-4131-8B14-BEB8F93FB69B.png

Need a little 1911 action. The 11-11-11 storm 110 yrs ago was a wild one. Generating record warm high temps on the front end, and record low high temps on the backside. Nothing like a little 60+ degree flip in 24 hrs in the S. Plains region. In SMI, it is notorious for an event that (ridiculously) added two more "11's" when a twister destroyed a small community west of my home town at exactly 11:11pm. Storm system was crazy with blizzard, F4 twister and many smaller ones, and some backside LES snows as well as eye-popping temperature plummets in the nations mid-section.

Here's the 8 am surface maps for the 11th and 12th.

1702149893_1911-11-118amwxmap.thumb.gif.a1338384c5149a69f7a166cc5e5b5e1b.gif2135838329_1911-11-128amwxmap.thumb.gif.ff5ba2ea1c4b29760d0f7bef7d648488.gif

And then, just two years after, the Great White Hurricane of 1913 featured three separate storms combining over a 5 day period in the GL's wreaking havoc of immense proportions. Here's a map of how the first merger took place. The monster tho, came about later in Jan of '78 fashion on the eastern lakes. Wx like this would be awesome to experience.

2041049296_19131106Surfmapre-image.jpg.aba0b59048ed424d31a7691d696db1f8.jpg

  • Like 5

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just started clicking on my wx model links due to the clipper. LR maps are a crap-shoot in mid-winter, let alone this early when climo is kinda, well, hostile. But apparently the GFS recently flashed a system just before Thanksgiving that reminds me of how models were portraying the 11-26-18 storm 3 years ago. That system was a let-down as the models were spitting out like 9-14" for Marshall, but the WAA over-performed (an early season curse) and a lot of qpf fell before we finally went over to snow. 

Would love to see this gain some traction:

 

2021-11-12 h270 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_45.png

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I just started clicking on my wx model links due to the clipper. LR maps are a crap-shoot in mid-winter, let alone this early when climo is kinda, well, hostile. But apparently the GFS recently flashed a system just before Thanksgiving that reminds me of how models were portraying the 11-26-18 storm 3 years ago. That system was a let-down as the models were spitting out like 9-14" for Marshall, but the WAA over-performed (an early season curse) and a lot of qpf fell before we finally went over to snow. 

Would love to see this gain some traction:

 

2021-11-12 h270 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_45.png

Spots near Oskaloosa IA had 23 inches that storm nov 2018, I believe 

  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great share Jaster on the Fitz!!!  Great piece.  I've seen other documentaries on it and that was one of the best.

Most of the others I have seen don't agree with the "official" report. Most seem to think it was thrust into the bottom (shoal) by a large wave and split apart. Whatever the cause, it happened extremely fast. Sinking imo would at least allow a mayday call.

 

  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...