September Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

Omaha airport ended up with a 3 day total of 7.41". I had just a bit over 5.5" of rain at my place. Quite the event and remarkably this is the 3rd event of 5-10" rain totals in the Omaha metro in the last 2 years. 

[Tom]

12z GFS and now the 12z GGEM are showing a pretty cold open to October and could be a stormy one.  Let's see what the 12z Euro shows.  I'd like to see a wound up storm system to develop somewhere in the central CONUS.  If that should happen, you could really see some steep negative departures for the 1st week of October.

[gosaints]

As it stands now it looks like the 3rd or 4th is when the cool down occurs after a very warm first couple days of october

[Tom]

Almost like clock work, the Alaskan Ridge is going to Pop during the 1st week in October just as the new LRC begins to form.  I'm sure the CFSv2 is going to start seeing this pattern as the GFS/EURO Ensembles def heading towards that direction.

 

I posted some maps a while ago using the SST analogs and they showed a high probability of colder weather in October.  Looks like it is heading that way.  It's fascinating watching all this play out and how the pieces of the puzzle come together. Nature can give us clues weeks, even months in advance.

 

In any case, modeling also picking up on Arctic blocking in the longer range which means some serious chill may be on the way next month.  The warmth has been fun while it lasted, time to get into Autumn mode.

 

12z GEFS Day 8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

Day 12...notice the trough developing underneath the ridge in the NE PAC.  Doesn't that look familiar???  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png

 

Hopefully that Pacific jet begins to energize and start sending some storm systems into the west coast.  Let's see how the new LRC develops.

[Tom]

Saw this one coming in AK...Record snows hit Fairbanks, AK yesterday...

 

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/record-snow-hits-fairbanks-alaska-the-6-snow-comes-2-5-months-earlier-than-the-first-half-foot-accumulation-last-season

[Geos]

That's pretty wild to see that much snow in Fairbanks now. In the Brooks Range or in the mountains it would be more common for those types of accumulations, but in the valley that's impressive.

 

Last three days have basically been a carbon copy of each other. Few clouds, some early morning fog and mostly sunny the rest of the day. High of 70° today. Forecasted highs starting Tuesday are all in the 60s now.  

Starting to smell like fall now with some dead leaves sitting on the ground.

 

Overall temperature for the month sitting at 66.7°.

[Geos]

GFS says highs near 60 on Wednesday. Cold front later tomorrow looks to pack a punch.

 

[Geos]

About a third of the moon eclipsed now. Clearing was timed perfect this evening.

Several households nearby watching it.

[james1976]

This may be the last day of the year that we see 80 degrees. 60s forecasted for the next 7 days. Clouds and showers are moving in with the cold front.

[gosaints]

You never know.  80 might be tough thoughhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015092812/gfs_T850_us_44.png

[Tom]

Finally back from vacation, it was quite the grueling trip there and back with the Seadoo's...never again...

 

It was pretty fun though rippin' through the Canyon's and bay's in the calm waters.  It was 100F or higher 7 out of the 11 days I was there.  I can't wait for more typical Fall weather...burnt out is an under statement.

 

The 1st pic below was done on Canyon Lake, AZ...the other was on the boat ramp at Lake Pleasant, AZ.

 

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

Finally back from vacation, it was quite the grueling trip there and back with the Seadoo's...never again...

 

It was pretty fun though rippin' through the Canyon's and bay's in the calm waters.  It was 100F or higher 7 out of the 11 days I was there.  I can't wait for more typical Fall weather...burnt out is an under statement.

 

The 1st pic below was done on Canyon Lake, AZ...the other was on the boat ramp at Lake Pleasant, AZ.

Looks fun tom!! Now you can get back to the norm and get ready for postseason Cubs baseball!! Go Cubs go!!!

[Tom]

 

About a third of the moon eclipsed now. Clearing was timed perfect this evening.

Several households nearby watching it.

 

On the drive back home from AZ on Hwy 40, I saw the Eclipse from start to finish in NM under clear, dark skies...it was an eary site to see actually in the middle of nowhere.

[Tom]

Looks fun tom!! Now you can get back to the norm and get ready for postseason Cubs baseball!! Go Cubs go!!!

I still can't believe they clinched a Playoff birth....what's even more wild is the Hawks have their Home Opener on the 7th and raise their 2015 Championship banner the same day the Cubbies play.  Chitown will be rocking for sure!

[Yerf]

Really felt the cold front move through. 66 at 7:30am 59 at 11:30am

[james1976]

Frost/Freeze advisories/warnings posted for tonight for parts of WI/MN.

[Tom]

Arctic temps have popped above normal....

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

 

 

 

correlation to the warming happening at 30mb...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[Tom]

Fairbanks, AK continues to get smoked....2nd big Winter storm in less than a week!

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

AKZ222-301400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0020.000000T0000Z-150930T1400Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
214 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY.

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL 2 TO 6 INCHES. STORM TOTAL 7 TO 14
INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR EXTREME WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA.

 

 

Snow cover continues to blossom...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

[Geos]

Getting a bit chilly out there tonight. Been windy all day. What leaves that have fallen were blowing around.

[Tom]

That's a wrap!  September ended up being quite the warm month to say the least.  It opened extremely warm through Labor Day weekend and stayed consistently warm throughout the month.  The last couple days started the cooling trend but the month will end up being the 18th warmest.  Here's a quote from Bill Snyder from WGN:

 

 

 

Despite Wednesday chill, September-2015 likely to rank 18th warmest of past 145 yrs on record in Chicago, among warmest 12% since 1871

[gabel23]

Top 5 warmest for my CWA. 

 

http://www.weather.gov/gid/top10warm_September

[Geos]

September was 3.77° above normal here with 4.78" of rain. Only significant cool stretch was the 9-13th.

 

This was the 6th month in a row with more than 4" of rain!

 

Extremes: 90°/46°

[Hawkeye]

Anyone have the US temp anomaly graphic for September?

[Geos]

Anyone have the US temp anomaly graphic for September?

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Thanks.... quite a toasty month.