September Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Here are some maps of the 06z CFSv2 run that just came in...

[Tom]

CFSv2 seeing the same NW NAMER ridge blossom as the other models...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015090106/cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_3.png

 

Then it really blows up later in the month...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015090106/cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_4.png

[james1976]

Those maps look opposite of a typical El Nino . Nice to see these changes as we head closer to the new LRC.

[Tom]

Those maps look opposite of a typical El Nino . Nice to see these changes as we head closer to the new LRC.

The maps you see in a typical El Nino all over TWC and Media are to "hype" up a "warmer" Winter Outlook.  They tend to forget what the body of warm water in the N PAC has done the previous 2 Winters.  That ridge is going to build in NW NAMER no matter how much people want to deny it this coming Fall/Winter/Spring.

 

Some of the statistical analog models are showing an enormous amount of probability of a very chilly October/November for the lower 48...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Slide08(23).jpg

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Slide09(54).jpg

 

Let me know if you can't see the maps....BTW, these maps are lining up well with the CFS model going forward.

[Geos]

What an uncomfortable way to start off September! Little bit of a SE wind this afternoon. No AC at work today - going to make for a long afternoon!

 

Counting down the days until the first average frost - ragweed high today.

[ingyball]

The maps you see in a typical El Nino all over TWC and Media are to "hype" up a "warmer" Winter Outlook.  They tend to forget what the body of warm water in the N PAC has done the previous 2 Winters.  That ridge is going to build in NW NAMER no matter how much people want to deny it this coming Fall/Winter/Spring.

 

Some of the statistical analog models are showing an enormous amount of probability of a very chilly October/November for the lower 48...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Slide08(23).jpg

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Slide09(54).jpg

 

Let me know if you can't see the maps....BTW, these maps are lining up well with the CFS model going forward.

This is why a lot of people don't think 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 may not be good analogs for this winter, a better analog might be 1957, which had a more similar El Nino to what a lot of people think 2015 could be, which is a warmer Nino 3.4 than a Nino 1&2. I'm not sure if 1957 had a warm pool in the N Pac, but if it stays this year I don't think it's going to be a typical El Nino winter in the Great lakes region.

P.S I might have totally blown the El Nino info, I'm still learning more and more about it and the different ocean features, there's a guy on a different forum who is really skilled with ENSO discussion.

[Tom]

This is why a lot of people don't think 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 may not be good analogs for this winter, a better analog might be 1957, which had a more similar El Nino to what a lot of people think 2015 could be, which is a warmer Nino 3.4 than a Nino 1&2. I'm not sure if 1957 had a warm pool in the N Pac, but if it stays this year I don't think it's going to be a typical El Nino winter in the Great lakes region.

P.S I might have totally blown the El Nino info, I'm still learning more and more about it and the different ocean features, there's a guy on a different forum who is really skilled with ENSO discussion.

Typically, Modiki (warmer Nino 3.4) El Nino's produce a colder/stormier Eastern CONUS.  As for 1957, the NE PAC waters did have somewhat warmer waters, but nothing close to how warm they are being predicted to be this season.  I'd expect ridging to persist across NW NAMER throughout the season.

[Tom]

Talk about a nation of Fire in the West/North & South...

 

ORD hit a high of 89F yesterday...if it wasn't so smokey, I bet the temps would be a couple degrees higher.

[james1976]

GFS has turned pretty warm in the mid-long range.

[Tom]

GFS has turned pretty warm in the mid-long range.

12z Euro starting to turn the corner and getting cooler late next week into the following weekend.  It's more seasonal mid next week, then turns below normal with plenty chances of precip.

[Tom]

Latest CPC's thoughts...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Geos]

89° today. Probably the last shot at 90° this year failed due to the clouds and haze. I don't remember ever seeing this much smoke and haze in the air day after day like it has been.

Rest of the week looks to stay between 80-85° with east winds dominating. 

[james1976]

Local met posted this. Kinda interesting.

September 1, 2015

Summer (June/July/Aug) rain total for Waterloo was 14.38″. It was the wettest summer since 2010 and ranks 21st overall.

http://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weather/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/5.jpg

[Tom]

GFS/Euro Ensembles/CFSv2/CFS all showing a real big cool down come mid month (ish)...wouldn't be surprised to see our first Frost Advisories of the season in the Plains/Midwest region down the road.  Certainly beginning to see signs that Summer will begin to wane and Autumn take control.

[james1976]

GFS/Euro Ensembles/CFSv2/CFS all showing a real big cool down come mid month (ish)...wouldn't be surprised to see our first Frost Advisories of the season in the Plains/Midwest region down the road.  Certainly beginning to see signs that Summer will begin to wane and Autumn take control.

That's a big agreement with all those models. I'm starting to smell the hot chocolate

[james1976]

I love how the 850 Zero line is starting to drop into the lower 48 with more and more model runs.

[Geos]

Local met posted this. Kinda interesting.

 

September 1, 2015

Summer (June/July/Aug) rain total for Waterloo was 14.38″. It was the wettest summer since 2010 and ranks 21st overall.

 

Wow, that 1993 total really stands out!

 

It's so warm this evening that it feels like it is daytime - just gross.

Radar is showing a few isolated cells near the lake. 

[Tom]

Hello Autumn...

 

[Geos]

No surprise seeing all that warmth over the Pacific...

 

I'll be in the Cascade Mts. during that time frame, so I'll be in above normal temperature conditions until I return the 20th.

 

Forecast not so hot now with onshore winds starting today.

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies are out and showing the ridge over the Midwest/Lakes region Week 1...Week 2 the trough digs into the central CONUS...Week 3 & 4 we see a pretty dominant ridge develop over the NE PAC and a downstream trough poking into the northern Plains.

 

 

[Tom]

Back Door Cold Front heading down the Lake...wouldn't mind seeing some storms pop up later today...

[Tom]

CFS continues to show a chilly October overall in the central CONUS with numerous cold fronts.  What really is drawing my attention is the evolution of what I could see happening again for the 3rd year in a row...another Fast Start to Winter in November.  As the jet really begins to intensify mid/late November, the "Blob", does what it's supposed to do and buckles the jet that delivers real cold air for the time of year in November.  It is not unreasonable to believe that the "wavy jet stream" pattern will continue to be a common theme this Fall/Winter season.  The CFS hasn't skipped a beat and wants to park an Aleutian Low and pump the ridge in NW NAMER.  Marry that jet with the southern branch, which should be more active than last year due to a mature El Nino and you can have a wild season.  

 

See below an illustration of what the pattern may look like in November.  Keep in mind also, that with an active western Pacific Typhoon season, some of these systems may re-curve to the north and even more so influence the northern hemispheric weather pattern.

 

November 21st.,.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/03/basis00/namk/tpps/15112112_0300.gif

 

November 26th...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/03/basis00/namk/tpps/15112600_0300.gif

 

Black Friday...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/03/basis00/namk/weas/15112700_0300.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/03/basis00/namk/tmax/15112700_0300.gif

 

 

 

Who wouldn't want to see a snowy Thanksgiving week this year????

[Tom]

CFSv2 getting colder in the central CONUS for the remainder of this month...pretty substantial cool down still being advertised mid month...

[james1976]

I like how all these maps are looking!

[Geos]

Back Door Cold Front heading down the Lake...wouldn't mind seeing some storms pop up later today...

 

Here is comes! Already 74° in Racine.

 

[Tom]

Both GFS/EURO showing a re-curving Super Typhoon Day 8-10 which would translate to a deep trough in the lower 48 towards mid/late month.  I think the CFSv2 is picking up on this as well as the GFS/EURO ensembles.

[Geos]

Wind shift is going to feel like a pneumonia front when it comes through. 71°/66° currently. Fog and mid 60s at the lakeshore up here.

[ingyball]

Intense storm hitting the OSU Campus right now.

[Tom]

A few cells popped up along the lake breeze...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20150904.0030.gif

 

 

 

Back to back 90F days recorded at ORD...prob won't hit 90F or higher tomorrow which will ruin the chances of it begin an official heat wave around here.  Nonetheless, I think ORD tacked on 9 days at or above 90F this Summer thus far.

[Geos]

88° today here. Too many clouds I think to hit 90°. Sitting at 68° right now - still fairly humid out, but feels a lot better than yesterday evening.

[james1976]

This is how DMX ended their morning AFD:

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH   SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES   OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT  FOR THE YEAR.  

[Tom]

Over the last 2 months, there has been a notable amount of Blocking near Greenland & Alaska.  Both the AO/NAO have been negative during this period and looks to continue the trend through the month of September based on the GFS/EURO Ensembles.  Hope this trend can continue into the Fall/Winter months so nature can slow down the speed of systems as they traverse the lower 48.  The last 2 seasons we saw a sky high NAO and systems ripped on through and didn't have time to slow/intensify.  Something to watch down the road.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

CPC seeing the trough more central based now...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

[Tom]

18z GFS...Cross Polar Flow mid month???  LOL, that would be quite the statement from Mother Nature.

[Geos]

Cool today, relatively speaking. High of 75°. Had some patchy fog in the morning then some sun, then scud clouds came blowing in around 4pm. Patchy fog out there right now as a matter of fact.

[Tom]

Even though we are in cycle 8 of this year's LRC...the cold phase is still cycling through...going to be a shock to the system late next week into the following...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Tom]

18z GFS targeting IA as the epicenter of some soaking rains Mon/Tue!  Wouldn't this be a nice storm track in the Winter???  Hahaha, can't get ahead of myself...stay calm Tom...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015090518/gfs_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

FWIW, the GFS won the battle with the coming pattern in the mid/long range.  It was the first to sniff out the cooler pattern.  In fact, I think it was the GFS/CFSv2 on this one.  Boy, GFS continues to want to unload some early season chill mid month.  Allergy suffer's will finally be able to get a much needed break!

[Geos]

Hopefully it will stay dry tomorrow. Cook out and want to finish a project up.

High of 86° today, humid as all hell! lol

 

Monday it can rain all it wants - was planning on being lazy that day anyways.

 

Big cool down coming late week. High in the 50s for some of us?

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro showing the same thing and targeting the Lakes region with the coolest of air next weekend. Thank goodness we are enjoying some great weather on this Labor Day weekend.  Prob wont have too many more good beach days this year.

[Geos]

Managed to reach 90° today. Second time only this year.

Looks like a really wet couple days coming up if models are right.

 

 

So long summer, it was pleasant for most of the time. Thunderstorm activity was a little on the low side, but the storms we had were pretty good. Everything stayed really green except for the last week July into the first few days of August.