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September Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The 90° reading today will probably be the last. I don't think it's ever reached 90° after the 15th here.

 

Plenty of clouds inbound tonight as the front approaches.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Euro showing quite the Autumn storm Day 10...GFS has been going back and forth.   Would be nice to see a wound up system cut up through the Plains mid month.  A lot of blocking showing up around that time period also.  Both GFS/EURO tank the AO/NAO during this period.

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Will be nice having some rain soon and clouds around today. Dewpoints backed off a smidge over night. 

Seeing more hints of colors in the trees and the crops are noticeably drier now. Autumn is almost here.

 

SWS from MKX regarding heavy rain and storms.

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
432 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-071700-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
432 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM MAY GENERATE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL RATES DUE TO THE
COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE A DEFICIT OF LATE ON RAINFALL
THE GROUND CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF WATER. SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$
COLLAR

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Was hoping for an evening of tracking thunderstorms close to home, but that's not the case. 

Am noticing some severe weather in SE Nebraska. Not sure if we have any members between Omaha and the KS state line.

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
947 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

NEC097-127-133-147-080315-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-150908T0315Z/
RICHARDSON NE-JOHNSON NE-NEMAHA NE-PAWNEE NE-
947 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RICHARDSON...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHWESTERN
NEMAHA AND NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 946 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF FALLS CITY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUBURN...HUMBOLDT...JOHNSON...TABLE ROCK...VERDON...STELLA...ELK
CREEK...7 MILES SOUTH OF AUBURN AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
HIGHWAY 136 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 217 AND 238.
HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Had some brief rains overnight but nothing terribly heavy.  A line of storms has developed and heading east...hope we get some good rains today/tonight.  Wisco has been getting rocked with heavy rains from this system.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20150908.1456.gif

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Was hoping for an evening of tracking thunderstorms close to home, but that's not the case. 

Am noticing some severe weather in SE Nebraska. Not sure if we have any members between Omaha and the KS state line.

 

I was out chasing yesterday afternoon and evening in southern Nebraska. Was on a huge HP beast that formed in south central Nebraska around 230p and lasted for about 3 hours. It went tornado warned and had reports of baseball sized hail and 80 mph winds. There were a few reports of small rope tornadoes but overall to me the rotation was usually pretty broad but rapid. I didn't see any of the tornadoes myself. At one point the storm was throwing out hailstones well in front of the storm itself. I was taking pics and video when I suddenly started getting hit by marble sized hail. Bailed out of there quickly before the big ones started falling!

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12z Euro showing quite the Autumn storm Day 10...GFS has been going back and forth.   Would be nice to see a wound up system cut up through the Plains mid month.  A lot of blocking showing up around that time period also.  Both GFS/EURO tank the AO/NAO during this period.

Are you able to tell if there is a decent chance of severe weather from this storm?! Are you able to see CAPE values, shear etc or even precip plots showing storms on the EURO?!

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Are you able to tell if there is a decent chance of severe weather from this storm?! Are you able to see CAPE values, shear etc or even precip plots showing storms on the EURO?!

00z Euro sorta lost this system last run, but that could change.  I'll see what type of data I have available and will post as we get closer.  

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Last night's big rain event was a bust for much of Iowa.  The disturbance sweeping by to the north and storms well southwest left my area in a bad spot.  The models performed horribly.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not a bust this far east.

 

Was raining very hard in Racine. Thunder and lightning also. Looked like it is about 7:30 in the evening!

 

Drive in this morning was with driving rain and thunder with ponding on some roads, occasional lightning. Easily topping an inch of water today.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Dewpoints starting to drop here. Really wet outside tonight; obviously, after 0.91" of rain.


Only topped at 75° today. with heavy overcast staying all day.


Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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ORD picked up 0.97" of rain today...the most in about 2 months.  It came down in buckets with some vigorous gusts at times.  Glad we got a decent soaker around here.  

 

Lake effect rains on tap for Friday????  Time to dust off the long sleeves and a light jackets this weekend.  Great bon fire weather for sure.

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That's some pretty cool air coming in for Friday morning! About right on schedule though.

 

 

I'll be in the high Cascades all next week, so I know I'll be having to break out the jackets and long sleeves!  :D

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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http://www.weather.gov/images/oax/PrecipMaps/multi_day_PCPN_20150908(1).png

 

Dear lord, bring this exact system during the winter please. Amen.

 

For real, we got nailed here in Lincoln. My rain gauge of 6" was near the brim after two days. Crazy. I cannot wait for another El Nino this year. I know Gabel23 and I hype up 2009-2010 winter every year, this looks to be our best shot to cash in on those Chicago totals you guys have been receiving in recent years!

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Wow, that's some serious rain! That's about the most I've ever seen in 48 hours here.

What's the scene around Lincoln, NebraskaWX?! I'm guessing a lot of flooded roads and basements.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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http://www.weather.gov/images/oax/PrecipMaps/multi_day_PCPN_20150908(1).png

 

Dear lord, bring this exact system during the winter please. Amen.

 

For real, we got nailed here in Lincoln. My rain gauge of 6" was near the brim after two days. Crazy. I cannot wait for another El Nino this year. I know Gabel23 and I hype up 2009-2010 winter every year, this looks to be our best shot to cash in on those Chicago totals you guys have been receiving in recent years!

09-10 winter was great here too!

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Wow, that's some serious rain! That's about the most I've ever seen in 48 hours here.

What's the scene around Lincoln, NebraskaWX?! I'm guessing a lot of flooded roads and basements.

Not too bad, surprisingly. Streets were bad for a few hours but everything is cleared out, nothing like the storm we had in May (which dropped 10" on the South side of town). Pretty crazy that two years in a row September has dropped incredible totals in this region. Obviously was a very narrow stripe, as Omaha got less than an inch and some spots down here got over 8".

 

 

09-10 winter was great here too!

 

Possibly the best winter for me, and I lived in Chicago and Wisconsin for years. If we can get another one of those, just watch how this forum will light up with Nebraska people losing their minds. Absolutely loved that year!

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The pattern evolving this weekend reminds of the weather we experienced back on Halloween with a strong cold front traversing the Lakes and digging into the Southeastern states which then had a SLP run up the East Coast.  In fact, I did some numbers and it looks like it falls right in line with the LRC's cycle 1.

 

Lakeside counties may be close to 30F+ colder than this past weekend!

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png

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If ORD pulls off 3 days in a row in the 60's, I wonder what the record is for having this happen so early in the Autumn season???  Some forecast models now have low 60's on Saturday for ORD.  Might be possible if the clouds/showers stick around all day.

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lol last year ORD had 3 days in a row in the 50s at the exact same time. This cool shot isn't anywhere near record breaking.

That's not what I meant but anyway....I do remember a string of 50's last year but wasn't sure when it had happened.  

 

BTW, just found an article from last year when it hit 56F on 9/11 which broke the old record of 61F in 1940.  I'd say low 60's are darn chilly for early September even though the record low max's are in the mid 50's for this period.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-chicago-weather-20140911-story.html

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That's not what I meant but anyway....I do remember a string of 50's last year but wasn't sure when it had happened.  

 

BTW, just found an article from last year when it hit 56F on 9/11 which broke the old record of 61F in 1940.  I'd say low 60's are darn chilly for early September even though the record low max's are in the mid 50's for this period.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-chicago-weather-20140911-story.html

 

It's no more impressive than the warmth we had for the first week, creating a +10F departure over a full week period.  I think your love for snow and cold and this recent warm spell are clouding your judgment on what's a remarkable cool spell.  This upcoming one looks very run of the mill.  Thankfully, there is some precedent for warm falls (which this one is looking to be) turning into cold and snowy winters.

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That's not what I meant but anyway....I do remember a string of 50's last year but wasn't sure when it had happened.  

 

BTW, just found an article from last year when it hit 56F on 9/11 which broke the old record of 61F in 1940.  I'd say low 60's are darn chilly for early September even though the record low max's are in the mid 50's for this period.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-chicago-weather-20140911-story.html

 

It happened on the 11th, 12th and 13th. Lows in the upper 30s inland I remember.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I am looking forward to this first cool shot of the season. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for my area is looking darn good later this week. I must say, this has been a warm September so far, but not complaining, I will take advantage of it now before the really cool airmasses arrive.

 

BTW, FWIW, they say that a warm Autumn, follows a snowy, cold winter. Another say that I like is,"When March enters, Winter is over and when  August enters, Winter shows signs."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's no more impressive than the warmth we had for the first week, creating a +10F departure over a full week period.  I think your love for snow and cold and this recent warm spell are clouding your judgment on what's a remarkable cool spell.  This upcoming one looks very run of the mill.  Thankfully, there is some precedent for warm falls (which this one is looking to be) turning into cold and snowy winters.

I don't believe you have been following this forum over the Summer months as I have been elated to see the warm weather.  Especially the streak of 34 days that ORD reached 80F or higher.  The snow and cold can come Nov-Mar, IMO.

 

The coming cool spell isn't historic, but it certainly will "feel" alot colder for most people.  Last Sunday I was in Warren Dunes, MI on the beaches soaking up the sun and swimming in Lake Michigan.  However, I did wonder though, that in a matter of a few months, this lake would be producing lake effect snow squalls right in the vicinity where I was...LOL.  You can't blame me for loving Winter weather.

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GFS/EURO starting to build that snow pack in the mountainous regions of NW NAMER over the next 10 days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015091006/gfs_asnow_ak_41.png

 

Here is the current snow cover...

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

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JMA Weeklies are in today and illustrate the cooler and wetter pattern into Week 1 through the central CONUS.  Week 2, Canada fills up with a pretty large pocket of colder air as Autumn heads into full gear up in the northern latitudes.  Meanwhile, rather seasonal conditions are being forecast in the lower 48.

 

 

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SST's near the Gulf of Alaska have cooled in recent days as storminess in the region has increased due to the seasonal changes.  We see this occur every year as the seasons change.  I'll continue to monitor how much effect it has on the warm pool in the NE PAC waters.  If the waters that hug the NW NAMER coast are cooler than the waters just to the west, it may translate to a colder pattern this Winter season farther west into the central CONUS (similar to 2013-2014 but not as intense).

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x442_09091949_color_newdisp_anomaly_160w_95w_15n_65n_ophi0.png

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Three tornado warnings and numerous thunderstorm warnings but no watches. I would say the nws must have been on a coffee break this afternoon.......

That would be the SPC that issues watches ;) But yeah, there were a lot of warnings and storm reports from Nebraska yesterday and all I saw was a mesoscale discussion saying that a watch won't be needed due to the isolated nature of the storms. Good 'ol weather. You never know what she'll do...

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About a month and half ago, I posted maps of the CFS's "thinking" of when snow may begin to build in Siberia.  If I recall correctly, the model began seeing a snow pack begin to build in late September.  Well, the end of the month is fast approaching and the GFS is showing signs that the CFS may be sniffing out the longer range pattern correctly.  In fact, the CFS may have been to slow on this idea.

 

See below the snowfall forecast over the next 10 days in Eurasia.  An expansive swath of accumulating snows.  Now, snows come and go at this time of year due the lack of sustainable temps below freezing and also higher sun angle.  Let's assume the CFS is correct, using the Snow Advance Index Theory (SAI), it would suggest that the potential for increased probability of high latitude blocking would raise concerns for a colder winter season ahead for the lower 48.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015091006/gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

 

Let's focus on our side of the Globe and pay attention to what is happening on our continent.  Over the coming several weeks, the JMA/CFS/CFSv2 are suggesting Autumn to start heading into high gear, especially near NW NAMER/CANADA.  Much colder and snowier conditions should begin to prevail and the CFS model is seeing this.  FWIW, there is more coverage of snow now, than in previous weeks.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/10/basis00/namk/weas/15100100_1000.gif

 

Fast forward towards November 1st and we can see an explosion of snow cover that has developed in NW NAMER.  Could the cooler waters near the NW NAMER coast provide us with some clues as to where the "Blob" may eventually build?  Will it end up being farther away from the coast or migrate back east and hug the coast?  These are all very important questions as we head deeper into Autumn.  Once we begin to head into the Winter season, the ridge will eventually pop in NW NAMER and this developing snow cover will be a crutial ingredient if you want colder weather this season.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/10/basis00/namk/weas/15110100_1000.gif

 

December 1st....

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/10/basis00/namk/weas/15120100_1000.gif

 

This coming winter could end up begin one heckova Winter in parts of the lower 48.  Still to early to determine the prime locations for the best snows and coldest temps.  However, I do believe the CFS is latching onto some important clues as we more forward.

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I'm not going to remember this summer for its warmth really. Well maybe that it made such a late appearance. Just a cool summer with lots of little bits of rain and the occasional storm. Will say I saw more hail this year than in the last 10.

 

There was some awesome asperatus clouds this morning over the area. I was able to take a picture of some of them. They kept on appearing further north, but I didn't have the time to stop.

 

post-7389-0-60975200-1441904216.jpg

 

post-7389-0-03776500-1441904227.jpg

 

post-7389-0-80120500-1441904239.jpg

 

post-7389-0-68232400-1441904252.jpg

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Lake Effect rain showers looking interesting Friday night in Saturday morning around here.  Some embedded thunder may be possible if an intense plume develops off the lake.

 

From LOT:

 

 

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WITH THIS COLDER AIRMASS...ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE FETCH OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP DRIVE THIS
ACTIVITY. WE ALSO CANT RULE OUT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS -20 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE
AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES.
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From LOT:

 

 

ON FRIDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST IL AND NW IN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE
EFFECT SETUP. HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS FROM THE DEEP COLD UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY WILL BE OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE LOW-MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS OVER LAND AREAS AND
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE LAKE. THIS AND DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT
CONVERGENCE BAND WILL SET UP IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS
BASED OFF LATEST LAKE SFC TEMPS. LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AT OR JUST
ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS APPROACHING 30KFT AGL WILL
RESULT IN A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS.

GUIDANCE VARIES SOME ON PLACEMENT AND INLAND EXTENT OF LAKE
EFFECT...BUT FOCUS APPEARS TO BE EASTERN COOK...WILL AND KANKAKEE
COUNTIES INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SAME PARAMETERS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS OVER THE LAKE...SO HAVE SOME CONCERN DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF A WATERSPOUT MAKING LANDFALL. HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGH LIKELY POPS IN HEART OF LAKE BAND...SURROUNDED BY
CHANCE POPS...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP TO CATEGORICAL PENDING
TRENDS. THEN ON SATURDAY...EQUILBRIUM LEVELS/INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL START TO COME DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE WILL
DIMINISH. ALSO STILL HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY INTERRUPT LAKE
EFFECT BAND...SO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FOCUS OF POPS SHIFTED EAST A BIT.

 

Geo's, maybe you can catch a water spout on the lake Friday or Saturday!

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