Jump to content

September Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Here's a graphic comparing temps from this coming cool shot to last year's...much different story...I think I remember having to turn the Heat on one of those days.

 

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2015/09/feature091115a-1024x635.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's going to be a very snow winter for the Central Plains this winter.  I can just feel it.  We are long overdue in Nebraska for a snowy winter.  We have a similar El Nino going into this winter that we had in 09/10.  The warm water in the Pacific is in the right spot to pump troughs into the Central Plains.  That coupled with the increased southern jet and upper latitude blocking could spell one heck of a winter.  Bring it on!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From LOT:

 

Geo's, maybe you can catch a water spout on the lake Friday or Saturday!

 

Interesting setup. It happen last September too. This month is king for waterspouts.

Will have to be tomorrow, because I fly to Washington on Saturday morning.

 

0.32" of rain today and a high of 69°. Finally some comfortable air typical of September.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No LER yet. Although it did rain this morning. Tacked on 0.30" of rain to the yearly total this morning.

 

High of 64° here today with a lot of clouds until mid afternoon. Cool and breezy late in the day. Seeing more leaves fall to the ground the past few days, and more yellow appearing in the foliage. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm definitely glad we escaped the lake effect rain, as it would make these low 60 highs feel rawer with overcast skies and rain showers.  As it stands, looks like a nice fall-like weekend followed by another warm period, though a far cry from the first week of September with no 90s in the forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A year ago today we had a high temp of 51.  For that week we had two days in the 50s and four in the 60s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s on four nights.  This morning's 45 was nippy for sitting outside to watch the birds, but it was a very pleasant day in the 60s.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The new JMA monthlies came out 2 days ago and here is what they show for Oct-Dec.  As expected, in the month of October we begin to see the NW NAMER ridge take place while the trough centered south of the Aleutians begins to take place.  Temps in October are slightly cooler from the East/Lakes into the southern Plains.  The west coast begins to see some moisture as the Pacific jet begins to energize.

 

In November, it has a warmer look for a majority of the nation with some serious ridging over the lower 48 except near the south as the STJ becomes more active which suggest above normal precip from the southern Midwest/Plains/Southeast.  I don't know if I buy that outcome just yet, bc you will notice the Aleutian Low is deeper and not necessarily centered in the GOA ( which would pump warmth into the U.S.)  Let's see what the models projections are next month.

 

Once we get into December, surprisingly it is not as warm as I thought it would be and a typical El NINO look with above normal Precip from Cali/4 corners/southern plains and then all the way up the East coast.  Notice the Monster Trough south of the Aleutians and extensive blocking over the top with above normal temps in NW NAMER.

 

These are certainly very interesting details the JMA is indicating and following the SST analogs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to comment farther on what I think will be common feature this Fall/Winter season.  It's pretty evident that a majority of the long range seasonal models are all agreeing on is a powerhouse Aleutian Low, centered farther west and not in the GOA.  The presence of the Aleutian Low will create a baraclinic zone in the Pacific and activate the southern branch of the jet stream as we head into mid/late November/early December.  I wonder how active the subtropical jet will be this season since oceanic temps are extremely warm W/SW of Baja.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomp.9.10.2015.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a chilly morning it was. I believe it got down to the lower 40s and I would not be surprised if spots in the area dipped into the upper 30s in SEMI. I will double check. Also, the leaves have started to change colors. Actually, some started a week ago or so. I'd say, that's a little too early.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a chilly morning it was. I believe it got down to the lower 40s and I would not be surprised if spots in the area dipped into the upper 30s in SEMI. I will double check. Also, the leaves have started to change colors. Actually, some started a week ago or so. I'd say, that's a little too early.

Upper Michigan low's were pretty cold...

 

28F Spincich Lake, MI

28F Kenton, MI

29F Baraga Plains, MI

29F Brimson, MN

31F Tomahawk, WI

 

 

Part of the reason why the leaves may be changing color faster this year may be due to the drier weather we had in August.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upper Michigan low's were pretty cold...

 

28F Spincich Lake, MI

28F Kenton, MI

29F Baraga Plains, MI

29F Brimson, MN

31F Tomahawk, WI

 

 

Part of the reason why the leaves may be changing color faster this year may be due to the drier weather we had in August.

That's pretty darn cold for this time of the year. My low was a nippy 37F. Not a record though. Old record was 31F.

 

I was thought that the leaves were changing colors fast this year because of a tough, brutal winter that's coming. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's pretty darn cold for this time of the year. My low was a nippy 37F. Not a record though. Old record was 31F.

 

I was thought that the leaves were changing colors fast this year because of a tough, brutal winter that's coming. ;)

Could actually be a combination of both!  Let' see how fast they shed this year.

 

Meanwhile, it has been a gorgeous Fall day today.  Ample sunshine, light breeze and of course, another Bear's loss against the Packers!  Haha...Packer fans can thank Cutler...again, for his turnovers.

 

Another summer like week ahead.  I should have great traveling weather on Thursday as I'm driving with my brother to AZ with our Seadoo XP's and leaving them there till nxt Spring.  Can't wait to rip them up on the lakes in between the Canyon's.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snow and Ice coverage a bit above normal in AK/Siberia...this map should be showing more Blue over the coming 2 weeks as the pattern in both regions will be favorable for more early season snows...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2015255.png

 

Arctic regions responding well with a continued trend in Arctic temps that are heading south...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

The state of AK may have a lot more snow on the ground by months end...not to bad for this time of year...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_alaska.gif

 

 

North America snow cover should be well ahead of last year's start and even the prior year if models continue the trends...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015091318/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest 10 day chunk from the CFSv2 for October...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd1.gif

 

Month thus far shows how much of the nation has been torchy...CFS has been done good so far for this month for the central/eastern CONUS...

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am sure ready for some serious fall weather here in Central Nebraska.  As of 3:30 PM, it is 98 degrees with a humidity of 16% with south winds of 26 mph gusting to 40 mph.  Talk about hot and dry.  I guess it will get the corn ready for harvest fairly quickly.  By Friday, we are only low 70's for highs and a low of 44 which will feel heavenly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boom!  I believe the JAMSTEC model has updated their September forecast and its coming around to a nasty Winter for the lower 48.  If you have been following this model, it primarily focused the coldest temps and wetter pattern up along the EC/SE.  However, this months run is now backing it up all the way from the Rockies to the East!

 

First, let's take notice to the SST's for the remainder of this Autumn.  It has cooled the NE PAC waters somewhat from last months runs which may be a sign of what is currently happening in the NE PAC right now as some cooler eddy's have been showing up.  Still, the waters remain quite warm, but not overly warm which may be a good thing as we head into Winter.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1sep2015.gif

 

The model is still indicating a colder central CONUS for the Autumn months and a warmer EC as the waters are still quite warm off the EC which will promote ridging early on in the season. 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2015.1sep2015.gif

 

A rather wet looking pattern right in the heart of the nation during the Fall is a great look for storminess as the new LRC sets up.  Notice how wet the 4 corners region is which may be an indication of the STJ becoming active fueling off the warm waters SW of Baja/Mexico.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2015.1sep2015.gif

 

As we move into Winter, the Modiki El Nino takes shape while the Aleutian Low deepens south of the Islands in the NE PAC pumping the ridge and unleashing the Fridge into the lower 48.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

I like the look of this temp & precip forecast map for the heart of the Winter...look at those warmer temps in AK/Yukon Territories.  Now you know why I am monitoring the snow pack up that way as we head into Autumn???  Pop that ridge as Winter matures, your going to feel those temps down in the lower 48 crash.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

Cali should get pounded with tons of precip this Winter if this forecast should verify.  Looks like a coast 2 coast, action packed Winter season.  Sure hope there are plenty of storm systems to track this coming season.  I'm pretty thrilled to see the JAMSTEC taking the right steps to a wild winter season.  Plenty of time to see how this unfolds.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Crashing SOI suggest a trough to push into the Eastern CONUS...GFS/EURO may be starting to hint at that to finish off the month.

 

What a gorgeous couple of days we've had around here.  Low humidity, mild temps, nice breeze during the day and nights, can't ask for better weather in September.

 

A more active weather pattern is shaping up over the next 10-15 days as we head deeper into the month.  The colder air up north will begin to make intrusions and the "second season" of Severe Weather should ignite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Crashing SOI suggest a trough to push into the Eastern CONUS...GFS/EURO may be starting to hint at that to finish off the month.

 

What a gorgeous couple of days we've had around here.  Low humidity, mild temps, nice breeze during the day and nights, can't ask for better weather in September.

 

A more active weather pattern is shaping up over the next 10-15 days as we head deeper into the month.  The colder air up north will begin to make intrusions and the "second season" of Severe Weather should ignite.

The weather has been phenomenal, but, to tell you he truth, I am ready for some real Autumn weather. 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While some media outlets focused on the Arctic Sea Ice reaching its 4th lowest minimum since 1979...Nature decides to take a turn and now is setting Record Growth as Ice accelerates.  It's not a surprise as Arctic Temps continue to crash...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/annual-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-1/52421596

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

CPQnqAPWEAAjVj-.png

 

 

Interestingly enough, this is the fastest seasonal decline in arctic temps since the 2009-2010 El Nino...similarities???

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been a hot couple of days here in the valley of the sun...back to back 100F days can dry you out in a hurry!  However, a pretty potent tropical system is poised to hit the region Mon/Tue and unload some tropical moisture here in AZ.  Flood Watches have been hoisted in the region with 2-3" of rain being forecast.  I'm sure you all will be hearing about these flooding rains in the next couple of days.  Is this a sign of the new pattern starting to take shape???

 

Super warm waters continue to boil off the Baja coast where this system is coming from...

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Ocean-Anomalies-September-1.jpg

 

 

 

I'm already seeing signs of the new LRC starting to form up near the northern latitudes...over the next 1-2 weeks, the lower 48 will begin to see a brand new pattern as October approaches. 

 

What is interesting to see in the NE PAC, the warmest of waters are just off shore the NW NAMER coastline which is a good position if you want a trough centered more into the central CONUS as we head towards winter.  If your a fan of Winter weather and live in the central CONUS, I'd say that is a perfect location of where you want the warmest waters to be located.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's still to early in the season for any Stratospheric Warming Events to really impact the lower 48.  However, I find it rather interesting to see that a minor SSW event is occurring over N Canada in recent days...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

Could low solar/low geomagnetic be impacting the upper atmosphere this early in the season???  We shall see how this evolves later on in the season.  In any case, during a normal SSW event, you would see a cooler period Week 2-4 and that would put us into the first couple weeks of October.  Let's see if this impacts our weather down the road.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eurasia and North America continue to build up an early season snow cover in recent days/weeks and the pattern looks to continue.  The CFS sniffed this pattern out over 2 months ago and it has been my go-to model as we head into the Fall/Winter months.  It seems this model does a good job during a transitioning season from Summer into Autumn.  

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

Nonetheless, the CFS model is showing a continued trend to a Fast Start to Winter in November and it's been dialing in a colder/snowier pattern for the lower 48 just before Thanksgiving week.  I find it intriguing that the model is centering the main trough in North America over the NW Territories/Yukon, southeast into the Central CONUS.

 

November 23rd...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/20/basis00/namk/weas/15112300_2000.gif

 

December 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/20/basis00/namk/weas/15120112_2000.gif

 

Mid December...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/20/basis00/namk/weas/15121400_2000.gif

 

Let's see if the trends persist as we head deeper into October.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CFS is keeping the 1st half of October rather warm before the pattern begins to shift cooler.  We saw this same pattern in October 2002 during the 2002-03'  Winter season.  I don't mind seeing the cold air and snow continue to build and intensify up north in the Autumn, because chances are there will be blocking this season that will unload the cold into the Lower 48 as we get deeper into Oct/Nov.

 

I guess you could say...extended Summer???  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CFS is keeping the 1st half of October rather warm before the pattern begins to shift cooler.  We saw this same pattern in October 2002 during the 2002-03'  Winter season.  I don't mind seeing the cold air and snow continue to build and intensify up north in the Autumn, because chances are there will be blocking this season that will unload the cold into the Lower 48 as we get deeper into Oct/Nov.

 

I guess you could say...extended Summer???  

Yeah but the 1st half of October is also part of the new LRC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah but the 1st half of October is also part of the new LRC.

Sure is, but its not like there won't be any warm phases in the 2015-16 LRC cycle this year. I think its almost a given there will be bouts of warmer conditions this season.  There are many other variables that can offset warming, cooling, etc...its part of the surprises Nature brings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 372

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

    5. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

×
×
  • Create New...