Jump to content

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

Recommended Posts

Might be hard to hold a candle this month methinks judging by that 06Z run.

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 with light rain. 

  • Like 2
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

35* with the clouds moving in creating that beautiful sunrise this morning ! 
Does K103.3 have Christmas music playing? 
 

GOOD MORNiNG NOVEMBER!!!!  

Time to get some Ryan Farish going!

 

  • Like 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Almost in the blue! 

You are gonna get hammered! Prepare the plow!!!

  • Excited 3
  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like we got down to 43F with some light rain. Currently 45F with moderate rain.

  • Like 3
  • Rain 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The MJO is entering a cycle of constructive interference w/ the low pass/niña background state. Indo-Pacific convection/WC tightening and AAM removal at this point in the seasonal cycle is indicative of rossby wave amplification across the NPAC-WHEM sector, given in-situ transports.

I suspect an amplified pattern will establish mid-month, probably week-3? It probably won’t favor the west/PNW initially, but the structure of the blocking could/should become increasingly favorable with time, and the first window of high potential now comes into view, starting mid-December. At least I think so? Nothing is a given but I’m interested in that timeframe.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also been mid-40's here. Not ready for the 35 ish degree rain yet. 

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

How do you guys feel about La Nina being here right now? I feel like she always shows up late

 

Didn't it start like in the last few weeks of Winter last season?

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

2005, just like Jim has been saying the whole time

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

  • Excited 2
  • lol 2
  • scream 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

53 here this morning... and it looks like it will rain this afternoon.    ECMWF was much more consistent on that idea and better than the GFS

Agree...maybe a sign its getting its footing again after being a waffler with the previous few weeks. The King returns from his vacation in time for winter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thats crazy different! What sort of impacts will the cooler waters around us generally expect to have? 

I don't think the water temps off our coast have much of an impact either way during the cold season when everything is usually being driven by the upper levels.   I think it does have more of an impact in the warm season though when the low level flow is much more critical in terms of tangible weather.

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like November 2005 was the coolest November in the past 20 years at SLE, will be interesting to see how this one goes. 

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ENSO 3.4 region clocks in at -1.1C this week. I bet NDJ ONI ends up clocking in around -1.3C or so, similar to last year. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Only the good analogs count at this point in the year.    The rest are ignored.  😀

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

  • Like 1
  • Troll 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

Probably not... I see Redding only had 0.38" of rain in October that year. So it wasn't exactly the same. I still think it's humorous that the #'s for SLE were pretty much exactly the same. 

  • Like 1
  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think the water temps off our coast have much of an impact either way during the cold season when everything is usually being driven by the upper levels.   I think it does have more of an impact in the warm season though when the low level flow is much more critical in terms of tangible weather.

I know it means more severe weather in the spring/summer for the Midwest.

Hoping for us we get the good pattern early with lots of arctic air, with trough after trough

  • Like 1

195572.png?1673757432

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

17 inches of snow in one night here in early December 2005... then it melted and then we had 3 weeks of east wind.    Then it started raining just before Christmas and did not stop until February.   😀

  • Like 1
  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Temps in 2005-06 actually ran below average in the region in November, December, February, and March. January completely ruined it. What else is new.

Snowdrift loves January 2006. ;)

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This 12Z run is gorgeous my goodness.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_31.png

  • Like 4

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to see KMAX just about 100% filled in before Winter. 

KMAX_loop (1).gif

  • Rain 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

You should get used to it by now that when Jim posts, he’s mostly referencing his back yard. Not even his neighbor’s yard 3 blocks away.  Pfft Salem, where’s that? Lol!

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
  • lol 2
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I know it means more severe weather in the spring/summer for the Midwest.

Hoping for us we get the good pattern early with lots of arctic air, with trough after trough

La Nina means more severe weather in the middle of the country... that is not being driven by the water off the PNW coast.

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first 3 weeks of December 2005 were very cold. Then we paid for it dearly in January. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

17 inches of snow in one night here in early December 2005... then it melted and then we had 3 weeks of east wind.    Then it started raining just before Christmas and did not stop until February.   😀

I think we followed a 30+ day below average streak from mid November to mid December with a 40+ day above average streak. Then had the backdoor event in mid February.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You should get used to it by now that when Jim posts, he’s mostly referencing his back yard. Not even his neighbor’s yard 3 blocks away.  Pfft Salem, where’s that? Lol!

😁

 

  • lol 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z wants to give us our first flakes of the year early Sunday morning. Probably a sticking snow level around 2000-2500' down here. 

  • Like 3
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I think we followed a 30+ day below average streak from mid November to mid December with a 40+ day above average streak. Then had the backdoor event in mid February.

We can't forget the beastly March trough. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...