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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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This from an article called....Eight ways quantum computing is going to change the world.

Predicting the weather with quantum computers:

Despite the vast amounts of computer power available from today's cutting-edge supercomputers, weather forecasts -- particularly longer-range ones -- can still be disappointingly inaccurate. This is because there are countless ways that a weather event might manifest itself, and classical devices are incapable of ingesting all of the data required for a precise prediction. 

On the other hand, just as quantum computers could simulate all of the particle interactions going on within a molecule at the same time to predict its behaviour, so could they model how innumerable environmental factors all come together to create a major storm, a hurricane or a heatwave. 

And because quantum computers would be able to analyse virtually all of the relevant data at once, they are likely to generate predictions that are much more accurate than current weather forecasts. This isn't only good for planning your next outdoor event: it could also help governments better prepare for natural disasters, as well as support climate-change research. 

Research in this field is quieter, but partnerships are emerging to take a closer look at the potential of quantum computers. Last year, for instance, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) launched a partnership with IT company Atos that included access to Atos's quantum computing simulator, in a bid to explore how quantum computing may impact weather and climate prediction in the future. 

Link.....https://www.zdnet.com/article/quantum-computers-eight-ways-quantum-computing-is-going-to-change-the-world/

 

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60/46 on the day. Cloudy and dry. Starting Nov on a warm and dry note which can bode well for interesting weather down this way hopefully.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

60/46 on the day. Cloudy and dry. Starting Nov on a warm and dry note which can bode well for interesting weather down this way hopefully.

We've got an outside shot at 70 tomorrow. Would love to see it before our seemingly endless supply of rain and storms kicks in on Thursday. 

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4 hours ago, MossMan said:

2020 I had 62.75” and so far this year I am at 43.35”. 
I did not keep track in 2018 & 19, the first two years I was here. 

Looks like you end up getting about 20" more annually than I get here (40" 2020 and 25" so far in 2021). In high school I studied the correlation between distance from the sound and annual precipitation and found it increased about an inch per mile as you moved towards the mountains. You're only 10 miles inland from where I am, but of course elevation and convergence disrupt the formula a bit. And you're less in the rain shadow as compared to me.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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48 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Since we were talking a bunch of blast from the past earlier in the day.... Don't think anyone mentioned 2003. What a start to November that year right? Look at that string of consecutive record lows. 

 

records.png

2003-2004 was interesting. Everything was dynamic and high impact.

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Where I was living on Finn Hill we had 11 consecutive freezing max temps in Nov 1985 (actually one of them on Dec 1).  There were 14 consecutive highs 35 or below, the coldest day had a 26/9 spread, several inches of snow on the ground for many days, with a max depth of 10 inches.  Absolutely amazing stuff for November.  Almost certainly my favorite run of winter weather I've seen here with a fantastic mix of sustained cold, snow, sunshine, and days with snow falling.

I also happen to know my present location performed even better than the King / Snohomish line area that month.

Finn Hill is a cool place. I miss it. It was amazing seeing the snow stack up in February two years ago. I remember the last snowstorm that month the snow held on a lot longer then areas just a couple hundred feet lower. That heavy wet snow did a number on the trees and the electrical wires. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1 hour ago, snow drift said:

2003-2004 was interesting. Everything was dynamic and high impact.

November is an amazing and dynamic month in general. We really fall off the cliff here from the beginning of the month to the end. 

There are some incredible record lows as well. 1955 is seemingly untouchable. 

records.png

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A few other November 1985 memories:

Driving around Tacoma in the snow in my 1976 Plymouth Fury, listening to the weather forecasters (Harry Wappler?) tell me it was going to stop snowing soon, the snow continuing all day and into the night. 
 

Parking the Plymouth on a slight incline and watching it slide down the hill on its bald tires. 
 

Asking a buddy for a ride to Seattle for a job interview after the second round of snow because of the bald tires and a serious power steering fluid leak. Freeway was rutted and snow covered the entire way. Didn’t get the job. 

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

A few other November 1985 memories:

Driving around Tacoma in the snow in my 1976 Plymouth Fury, listening to the weather forecasters (Harry Wappler?) tell me it was going to stop snowing soon, the snow continuing all day and into the night. 
 

Parking the Plymouth on a slight incline and watching it slide down the hill on its bald tires. 
 

Asking a buddy for a ride to Seattle for a job interview after the second round of snow because of the bald tires and a serious power steering fluid leak. Freeway was rutted and snow covered the entire way. Didn’t get the job. 

My favorite memory is the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.  Forecast was for a few snow flurries at most.  Had 3 straight classes that morning at WWU in Bellingham.

It was clear when I woke up.  After the first class there were a few clouds.  After the second class it was cloudy.  After the 3rd it looked like snow was imminent.

Went to Pizza Hut with a friend.  It started snowing.  Got a free personal pizza because they didn't serve it in time.  My friend had locked his keys in his Supra so we had to get a coat hanger to get in.

He drove me back to the dorm and went home. Snowing hard by then.  And it continued to snow hard all afternoon and evening.  It was beautiful to watch.

Classes were canceled on Wednesday.  We had about a foot of new snow.  Everything was so quiet.  Nothing like the aftermath of a big snow.  We walked down to the nearest auto supply store to buy chains so we could drive to Anacortes for the holiday weekend.  Many students couldn't make it home and the dining areas on campus were scheduled to be closed so the University had to scramble to find food for them.

One of my favorite snows ever.

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48F and foggy. Dark outside of course given the date.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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32 and foggy!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Facebook memory from 11/3/2011. Only 0.1" I logged, it started late that afternoon.

There was a total of 6 measurable snow days that month (8 including traces) but wasn't the snowiest November by far. Biggest snow was 2.5" on the 17th. Possibly a little shadowing here like in 2020.

322618_297024306983902_1242488713_o.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Models are so boring right now. Wake me up around Thanksgiving. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Facebook memory from 11/3/2011. Only 0.1" I logged, it started late that afternoon.

There was a total of 6 measurable snow days that month (8 including traces) but wasn't the snowiest November by far. Biggest snow was 2.5" on the 17th. Possibly a little shadowing here like in 2020.

322618_297024306983902_1242488713_o.jpg

My snowiest (And first) November up here too. Had a 6.5" event 18-19th. 

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My snowiest (And first) November up here too. Had a 6.5" event 18-19th. 

November can't seem to total anywhere between 6" and 20" (that was in 2010 lol)

There's an average of like 2 or 3 days it snows towards the end of November. But can snow for two weeks straight like in 1985.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

A few other November 1985 memories:

Driving around Tacoma in the snow in my 1976 Plymouth Fury, listening to the weather forecasters (Harry Wappler?) tell me it was going to stop snowing soon, the snow continuing all day and into the night. 
 

Parking the Plymouth on a slight incline and watching it slide down the hill on its bald tires. 
 

Asking a buddy for a ride to Seattle for a job interview after the second round of snow because of the bald tires and a serious power steering fluid leak. Freeway was rutted and snow covered the entire way. Didn’t get the job. 

By the way…. The company I interviewed with called me a couple months later and offered a different job. I’ve been there for 35 years. And was working there in 1990 for the surprise convergence zone foot of snow. So, all good!

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7 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks like you end up getting about 20" more annually than I get here (40" 2020 and 25" so far in 2021). In high school I studied the correlation between distance from the sound and annual precipitation and found it increased about an inch per mile as you moved towards the mountains. You're only 10 miles inland from where I am, but of course elevation and convergence disrupt the formula a bit. And you're less in the rain shadow as compared to me.

Yeah so many times I leave my house in the pouring rain to take my daughter to school in Mt Vernon and as soon as I drop down into the valley on I-5 the rain stops. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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.03” so far on the day, 1.48” for the month. 
Currently mostly cloudy and 55. 
Had a dusting 4yrs ago, and 1” of snow two days later! 

1957FE2C-EBF6-42B0-990B-C60F7CA8ACF8.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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35 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Sky on fire

20211103_074542.jpg

Reminds me of the sky in one of the Doom games. 🔥🤪

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Well, some of these trees have almost entirely stripped themselves (Washington/3rd). 2nd shot was a week ago.

Noticing more homes around here lately showing up on the market. This one though is way expensive for the square footage. 

IMG_3126.JPG

IMG_2932.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, Cloud said:

November is an amazing and dynamic month in general. We really fall off the cliff here from the beginning of the month to the end. 

There are some incredible record lows as well. 1955 is seemingly untouchable. 

records.png

I was just studying the SEA climate statistics and it looks like that 6F low on the 15th from 1955, along with the 0F/1F lows from Jan 31/Feb 1, 1950 are the three most anomalous temperature departures from normal ever for SEA.

11/15/55 is 35º below the average low, 01/31/50 is 37º below the average low, and 02/01/50 is 36º below the average low.

For comparison the next most anomalous temperature is the 108º from this past summer which was 34º above the average high.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Easterlies have descended to 40mb.

 

BC46F306-BECF-4446-8C5E-CE91A0AC78D7.png

No idea what that means.   Is that a -QBO?    What are we cheering for if want cold and snow and not zonal flow?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.03” so far on the day, 1.48” for the month. 
Currently mostly cloudy and 55. 
Had a dusting 4yrs ago, and 1” of snow two days later! 

1957FE2C-EBF6-42B0-990B-C60F7CA8ACF8.jpeg

I think we had more snow down here than you did that day surprisingly. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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When the sun was at a specific angle, color gave me flashbacks to last year's smoke around the Santiam area. 😷

IMG_3101.JPG

IMG_3107.JPG

IMG_3123.JPG

IMG_3117.JPG

IMG_3137.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, T-Town said:

A few other November 1985 memories:

Driving around Tacoma in the snow in my 1976 Plymouth Fury, listening to the weather forecasters (Harry Wappler?) tell me it was going to stop snowing soon, the snow continuing all day and into the night. 
 

Parking the Plymouth on a slight incline and watching it slide down the hill on its bald tires. 
 

Asking a buddy for a ride to Seattle for a job interview after the second round of snow because of the bald tires and a serious power steering fluid leak. Freeway was rutted and snow covered the entire way. Didn’t get the job. 

A Plymouth Fury with bald tires=not a snow car!

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12 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Tomorrow is moving day.

It's either Friday or Saturday for me. Interesting a few of us are relocating around the same time. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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16 minutes ago, snow drift said:

A Plymouth Fury with bald tires=not a snow car!

No. Before that I had a 1967 Oldsmobile Vista Cruiser station wagon. Also with bald tires. That was a luxury automobile in its day, but it’s day had passed by the time I owned it. It did surprisingly well in the snow. It also leaked so that when it got cold there would be ice on the floor in the back seat. Good times. 

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21 minutes ago, T-Town said:

No. Before that I had a 1967 Oldsmobile Vista Cruiser station wagon. Also with bald tires. That was a luxury automobile in its day, but it’s day had passed by the time I owned it. It did surprisingly well in the snow. It also leaked so that when it got cold there would be ice on the floor in the back seat. Good times. 

I call those cars "ditch magnets". The Fury may have been an upgrade.

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11 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I call those cars "ditch magnets". The Fury may have been an upgrade.

They were both heaps, the Fury was even more unreliable. Towards the end it would leak a quart of power steering fluid between Tacoma and Seattle so I would have to park with no power steering and then refill it for the drive home. I ended up abandoning it. But it was kind of a right of passage to have a piece of crap car as a young person. Also glad to have moved past that stage. 

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The NWS up here rarely ever does cool detailed graphics like this. Nice info from Flagstaff.

252142619_256889483135030_1992210056419834718_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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