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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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I did predict a warm/dryish November... Seems like that is a LOCK. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Inversion season is in full swing by then. Extended longwave ridging= Fog for most of us. Dirty, flatter ridging= Warm front drizzle and fog.

Yeah... its tough to get sun with ridging by this point in the year.   Deep troughing is usually more effective in that regard.

Although an inversion for the lowlands would probably be sunny out here with offshore flow.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

One of the best snow cars I ever had was the 1970 Dodge Polara station wagon I had in college. A big old “lead sled” of a rustbucket, but its 383 V8 hauled *ss. Great fun to get the stink eye from people in much newer, better looking cars as I zoomed past them up the mountain passes at full highway speed in it. It had a good set of snow tires on it, and its mass meant great momentum for breaking through drifts. It was almost unstoppable in that regard.

My apologies if I’ve related the story before, but I schemed long and hard to get my parents to give it to me. While a sophomore in high school, I said to my self: “Self, the old green car looks like crap but it runs great. Ask your parents if they will let you have it when you go off to college. They will probably agree because they do not believe it will still be running then.” So I did. After the gales of laughter (“He actually thinks that old heap will still be running in three years!”), they reassured me that if they still had the green car, and it still ran, then of course they would let have it when I went off to college.

When the day arrived, “We weren’t being serious when we said that.” But I pressed the issue, and got the car.

My Best (actually not so best) snow car was a '77 datsun 280Z.  We had a surprise snowfall and classes got cancelled, I made it about 1/2 mile before putting it in the ditch (bald tires of course).  I got pulled out and crept home in 1st or 2nd gear. 

 

My best car in the snow (of my crappy high school/college cars) was actually a tie.  I had an '86 Isuzu Trooper that was an absolute beast in the snow.  I worked late one night in Atlanta when a decent snow came in, and had a 45 minute commute home.  I drove about 10 miles before it started slipping.  I pulled over, figured out how to put it in 4wd and took off again.  The thing did great.  I passed some poor State Trooper trying to do a blood run in a 5.0 Mustang, and the only car that passed me was a Saab.  When I moved to Oregon I got a 1983 Volvo 240 Diesel.  Even with very worn all season tires, I made it from Albany to Corvallis in a decent snowstorm with no issue.  I was white knuckle the whole way because I new I had crappy tires and very little experience driving in the snow but the car was so bloody heavy it didn't matter.  I think I dropped the pressure in my tires to give me as much of a footprint as possible, and motored on down the road. 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its tough to get sun with ridging by this point in the year.   Deep troughing is usually more effective in that regard.

Although an inversion for the lowlands would probably be sunny out here with offshore flow.  

It feels like we're pretty due for a fogversion of some stature. It seems like our ridging episodes the past few cold seasons have been consistently warmer, sunnier, and better mixed than normal. Maybe I'm overlooking something but it seems like December 2017 was the last remotely impressive inversion during the season.

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15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It feels like we're pretty due for a fogversion of some stature. It seems like our ridging episodes the past few cold seasons have been consistently warmer, sunnier, and better mixed than normal. Maybe I'm overlooking something but it seems like December 2017 was the last remotely impressive inversion during the season.

Haven’t had a whole lot of amplified patterns for the most part.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Nice looking GFS run.  Very active and cool this weekend and next week and then a nice looking GOA block by the end.  The ECMWF shows one night getting a freeze early next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought today was supposed to be dry…It’s currently pouring here. 

Yeah... not so good up there.   ECMWF showed the dry wedge primarily for King and Pierce counties.   Just a few sprinkles shown down here.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-5984000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My Best (actually not so best) snow car was a '77 datsun 280Z.  We had a surprise snowfall and classes got cancelled, I made it about 1/2 mile before putting it in the ditch (bald tires of course).  I got pulled out and crept home in 1st or 2nd gear. 

 

My best car in the snow (of my crappy high school/college cars) was actually a tie.  I had an '86 Isuzu Trooper that was an absolute beast in the snow.  I worked late one night in Atlanta when a decent snow came in, and had a 45 minute commute home.  I drove about 10 miles before it started slipping.  I pulled over, figured out how to put it in 4wd and took off again.  The thing did great.  I passed some poor State Trooper trying to do a blood run in a 5.0 Mustang, and the only car that passed me was a Saab.  When I moved to Oregon I got a 1983 Volvo 240 Diesel.  Even with very worn all season tires, I made it from Albany to Corvallis in a decent snowstorm with no issue.  I was white knuckle the whole way because I new I had crappy tires and very little experience driving in the snow but the car was so bloody heavy it didn't matter.  I think I dropped the pressure in my tires to give me as much of a footprint as possible, and motored on down the road. 

I have no horror stories. I owned a 93' Subaru Impreza, and I used to own a 98' Outback. I have a Dodge Caliber currently. It is kind of mediocre in the snow, but it's better than most older cars.

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41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... not so good up there.   ECMWF showed the dry wedge primarily for King and Pierce counties.   Just a few sprinkles shown down here.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-5984000.png

Huh....up to .30" here.  Looks like KBLI is up to .20"

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Huh....up to .30" here.  Looks like KBLI is up to .20"

That is not for the entire day... just a snapshot of where the rain would be focused today.  

0.00 here today.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

guys.....i'm beginning to think the GFS is not a great weather model

Well here's my model, last three times I bought a computer all of us had goods within weeks. 

2008, 2013, 2019, 2021!

And La Palma 1949! 🌋

  • Snow 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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58 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought today was supposed to be dry…It’s currently pouring here. 

Sun is out here, I was hoping for at least overcast today.

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  • Sun 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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⛈️

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-continental-w_conus-truecolor-22_41Z-20211103_map_-30-1n-20-100.gif

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  • Windy 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-truecolor-22_46Z-20211103_map_-20-1n-10-100.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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55 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I have no horror stories. I owned a 93' Subaru Impreza, and I used to own a 98' Outback. I have a Dodge Caliber currently. It is kind of mediocre in the snow, but it's better than most older cars.

All of my vehicles after my ElCamino have been 4wd/Awd since minus my run around Jetta I had in the later 2000’s when gas prices were insane. However my 4wd truck and AWD Outback could not make it up our steep driveway in February 2019 after a few days of driving up and down it turning it into an amazingly slick compact snow/ice combo. That is when I invested in a plow attachment for my mower. The pictures do not do it Justice with just how steep the driveway is. I had to borrow the neighbors tractor that first big snow we had at our current location. 

7C120E75-98BC-4046-A48A-65C58525B609.jpeg

100B5292-DB4E-434E-B888-CFFAA21EA097.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Got to 63 today, a bit warmer than yesterday but not like how we started off Nov last year with 70's.

  • Sun 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

It is likely a false lily of the valley or Solomon's seal.

Thanks! Just wondering if the berries could be toxic to my dogs, I will look into those. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Still some pretty decent colors here in Tacoma but lots of the trees are getting to the half bare point. Probably will be a lot more bare after the breezy conditions expected tomorrow. Nice day though 55 and cloudy. 

9FB53BC8-8EC8-4694-9A9C-6A87B78446AB.jpeg

0DFF2BF7-E23A-4B62-97B8-E99C39666BD3.jpeg

I may of past you!  Walked from there to Owen Beach and back 

56* and drippy out 

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Just now, Jginmartini said:

I may of past you!  Walked from there to Owen Beach and back 

56* and drippy out 

Lol that’s funny I may have walked right by you and didn’t even know! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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