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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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So far this area has missed out on the excitement today.  Just bad luck as this is not a shadowing situation.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

The Great White Winter of 2021/2022

If it's like 1921-22 I'll be very happy.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If it were up to me everyone would be put in a hyperbaric sleep chambers and sleep from fall to spring. Never miss out on more daylight!

The first year we did that it would be a 1949-50 redux.  You just know it!

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Shower moving in down to 41. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The first year we did that it would be a 1949-50 redux.  You just know it!

My wife and I were talking about whether we would actually want to see a winter like 1949-50 or 1968-69 up here. Someone posted a few pics from January 1969 in our community Facebook, and we can't decide whether it would be fun or miserable. Snow depth up here peaked about 4-5' in January 1969. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point all of the long range models / ensembles favor a cold January this winter.  In fact show it being the most likely month to be colder than normal.  Could it be?  I still think December has a great chance as well.

Personally I prefer and cold December. Feels more magical. 

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Looks like Salem had a White Christmas in 1921. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife and I were talking about whether we would actually want to see a winter like 1949-50 or 1968-69 up here. Someone posted a few pics from January 1969 in our community Facebook, and we can't decide whether it would be fun or miserable. Snow depth up here peaked about 4-5' in January 1969. 

I'll bet 1949-50 wasn't as snowy as 1968-69 there, but probably colder.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Salem had a White Christmas in 1921. 

1921-22 and 1922-23 is a very overlooked fantastic pair of winters.  Between the two we got hit in every part of the winter.  For my general location I would rank that pair right up there with the all time greats.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife and I were talking about whether we would actually want to see a winter like 1949-50 or 1968-69 up here. Someone posted a few pics from January 1969 in our community Facebook, and we can't decide whether it would be fun or miserable. Snow depth up here peaked about 4-5' in January 1969. 

You know what my feelings on that one would be. Let’s have one of those at Christmastime.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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It's amazing how much more frequently we used to get hit with legitimate arctic air. We had torchy months too. January 1925 was a total torch following the huge December 1924 blast. December 1922 had a really impressive cold snap too, a good event at the end of 1927. Major anafront snow in December 1928. Some really good December events in the 20s... Not to mention the good January ones like 1922, 1924, 1927, 1928, 1929. 

Just amazing how much more common good events were, even Salem was doing that well I'm sure Seattle - North had some amazing events that didn't even penetrate this far south that decade. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll bet 1949-50 wasn't as snowy as 1968-69 there, but probably colder.

I think you are right, for some reason the Silver Falls station doesn't have data from January 1950, but they did have a 40" depth on February 1st, they had a 51" depth on that date in 1969. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

You know what my feelings on that one would be. Let’s have one of those at Christmastime.

Looking at KEUG for 1924, I think you'd freak if we repeated :) 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Seems like our climate used to be colder.

Down to 37 after this last shower.... ICE AGE NOW.

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  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking at KEUG for 1924, I think you'd freak if we repeated :) 

Looks like they had 1" of snow depth on Christmas 1921 too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like they had 1" of snow depth on Christmas 1921 too. 

Hard to beat 20/-1 and 8" depth though!

  • Snow 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's amazing how much more frequently we used to get hit with legitimate arctic air. We had torchy months too. January 1925 was a total torch following the huge December 1924 blast. December 1922 had a really impressive cold snap too, a good event at the end of 1927. Major anafront snow in December 1928. Some really good December events in the 20s... Not to mention the good January ones like 1922, 1924, 1927, 1928, 1929. 

Just amazing how much more common good events were, even Salem was doing that well I'm sure Seattle - North had some amazing events that didn't even penetrate this far south that decade. 

February 1923 was huge here.

1928-29 was just plain orgasmic here as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Yes. Will hinge on the evolution of the general circulation this winter, and whether there are any significant MJOs (which we’re realizing may be triggered indirectly via extratropical wave dynamics).

But either 2022/23 or 2023/24 is likely to be a moderate or strong El Niño. A healthy single year event, most likely. There’s a quasi-variable natural frequency of sorts when it comes to ENSO and the IPWP.

I personally hope it’s 2023/24 that transitions to El Niño. Would make for much better winter patterns and possibly cooler summers as well, both in 2022 and 2023. But next year wouldn’t surprise me at all.

If the ENSO goes neutral next winter and we see a shift to +QBO, then 1990/91 could be an analog for the 2022/23 winter.

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45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking at KEUG for 1924, I think you'd freak if we repeated :) 

Dec 1924 was a phenomenal region wide event.  In Landsburg it snowed a foot and then got frigid for days.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still only 43 degrees here currently. 

Amazing how cold that feels in the middle of the afternoon.  My hands are frozen after working out side for a while.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just blows my mind every time I look at December 1924.  In Landsburg it started out at 50 degrees with a firehose on the 15th and had plunged to 13 by the end of the 16th.  A foot of snow fell during the crash as well.  Twelve consecutive max temps of 36 or lower with most of them freezing or lower.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow gfs is all over the place for so close to the event. Good lord.

My thoughts exactly. The NAM, EURO, GEM, and ECMWF show no model agreement at all. That tells me this could 'sneak' up on us and nail us with a big wind storm. We shall see!

00z NAM in 3 hours 27 minutes

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