PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[RentonHill]

26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z NAM much like the 18z GFS bombs the low well offshore down to at least 960mb.

Then it sucks back in right down the straight of Juan de Fuca….wtf is going??

[FroYoBro]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rainy and soggy game but the Ducks get it done!! Oregon still owns the PNW in football!!! The Oregon-UW game needs a trophy. A big mountain.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Their place is just a few doors down from the Oyster company! And we have hung out in our friends driveway the last few 4th of July’s for the parade! Small world! 

That brings back memories!  Your earlier pic of the view looked like the view that I remember.  Ir was the late 90s when I went.  Glad to hear they are still doing it.  

Without giving names of course, my friend still lives there but has some serious mental health issues.  Not dangerous to other people, but he does not have a grasp on reality.  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That brings back memories!  Your earlier pic of the view looked like the view that I remember.  Ir was the late 90s when I went.  Glad to hear they are still doing it.  

Without giving names of course, my friend still lives there but has some serious mental health issues.  Not dangerous to other people, but he does not have a grasp on reality.  

It seems like an easy going environment up there with lots of low key but fun parties in the summer up and down the beach, however our fiends have mentioned that their are a few “interesting characters” that live there. 

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Rainy and soggy game but the Ducks get it done!! Oregon still owns the PNW in football!!! The Oregon-UW game needs a trophy. A big mountain.

WSU has won against them 4 out of the last 6 meetings.  Soon be be 5/7.

[MossMan]

A cold wind blowing currently!

40 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

WSU has won against them 4 out of the last 6 meetings.  Soon be be 5/7.

MY COUGS!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Chilly 38 degree chunky rain here at home.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I went to the Oregon vs WSU instant classic in 2019 at Autzen, absolutely frigid evening during that cold fall. We went with our Aussie friends who were visiting, they couldn't really handle how cold it was. lol. Great game I think Oregon won 37-35. Ducks kicked the field goal as time expired to win it and we celebrated!

[Cloud]

28 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Rainy and soggy game but the Ducks get it done!! Oregon still owns the PNW in football!!! The Oregon-UW game needs a trophy. A big mountain.

60-48-5 UW overall and now we need a trophy because the Ducks have been doing well these past decade and half. It would take the Ducks winning like they did from 2004-2015 to tie the series next decade. But hey, I won't be oppose of it if it brings more of a motivating factor to the series going forward. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I went to the Oregon vs WSU instant classic in 2019 at Autzen, absolutely frigid evening during that cold fall. We went with our Aussie friends who were visiting, they couldn't really handle how cold it was. lol. Great game I think Oregon won 37-35. Ducks kicked the field goal as time expired to win it and we celebrated!

Looks like it was 56/32 in EUG that day. Got chilly after sunset, I do remember that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cloud said:

60-48-5 UW overall and now we need a trophy because the Ducks have been doing well these past decade and half. It would take the Ducks winning like they did from 2004-2015 to tie the series next decade. But hey, I won't be oppose of it if it brings more of a motivating factor to the series going forward. 

Beating UW will always be the sweetest win for me as a Ducks fan. I would love to see the Huskies competitive, but it isn't going to happen with Lake. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS N o p  e

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

60-48-5 UW overall and now we need a trophy because the Ducks have been doing well these past decade and half. It would take the Ducks winning like they did from 2004-2015 to tie the series next decade. But hey, I won't be oppose of it if it brings more of a motivating factor to the series going forward. 

Oregon has been a major program since 1994. UW doesn’t seem to even care about football anymore. Also this whole stretch feels like payback for all those years where UW refused to play in Eugene, a big reason for UW’s series lead. And yeah, a trophy is appropriate since in the last quarter century things have flipped significantly once the scholly limit got fairly reduced.

[RentonHill]

00z GEFS (top) vs 18z (bottom) GEFS - Low Locations 48 hours out - It appears we are moving in the wrong direction...in terms of guidance and model confidence?

[RentonHill]

Same as above but zoomed in to NW region 00z (top) vs 18z (bottom)

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Same as above but zoomed in to NW region 00z (top) vs 18z (bottom)

It's over. Wrap it up. Next. 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It's over. Wrap it up. Next. 

I'm just way too invested in this thing. Its like hate reading the last 2/3 of a book that had a good opener because you just need to know what the heck happens at the end. What sort of final solution do we end up with that gave the models so much trouble? And there's literally nothing else to track right now and i'm sure as shite not going to do actual work so might as well spampost in here all day

[Phil]

Tim gets a lot of rain on the 00z.

[RentonHill]

GEM doesnt want any part of this thing either

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM doesnt want any part of this thing either

The ECMWF has been a dud with it too.  Amazingly we may get past another prime windstorm pattern with only moderately strong winds.  SEA gusted to 41 today so it's not like we've gotten nothing.

I think the problem with this pattern is there won't be enough warm air available to really allow a bombing low to happen.  These things require a sharp contrast and this setup is too cold overall.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Totally missed today’s tornado, BTW. It wasn’t close to where I am.

[GHweatherChris]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Doesn't look like a tornado.

[RentonHill]

puking rn

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Totally missed today’s tornado, BTW. It wasn’t close to where I am.

Made quite a mess

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

puking rn

 

Time to go skiing

[Anti Marine Layer]

Huh?

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/SEW/AFDSEW

000
FXUS66 KSEW 150934
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
234 AM PDT TUE May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler marine air pushed into Western Washington
overnight. Marine layer cloudiness will be persistent on the coast
for the next several days. For the interior of Western Washington
along the I-5 corridor, areas of morning clouds today will be more
extensive Wednesday and Thursday as the marine layer deepens.
There will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms at times in the
Cascades through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...At 2am stratus was pushing into Puget Sound and had
also spread down the Strait of Juan de Fuca and reached Whidbey
Island. Areas of morning low clouds and patchy fog will give way
to a mostly sunny day for much of Western Washington, but with
cooler temps. Wed and Thursday will see deeper marine layer clouds
burning off later, and temps will be closer to average for the rest
of the weak. Some instability over the Cascades could lead to
isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evenings.


.LONG TERM...Little change is expected in the extended portion of
the forecast--marine layer clouds should be confined to the late
night and morning hours. A chance of showers should be limited to
the Cascades--but there is a chance Friday and Saturday that showers
could drift off the mountains and move over the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...Upper level ridge axis shifting eastward over the
northern Rockies this morning with light south-southeast flow aloft
over Western Washington. Air mass is dry and stable except for some
low level marine moisture moving inland from the coast with
increasing low level onshore flow. IFR ceilings in stratus can
expected from parts of the Puget Sound area westward to the coast
this morning. The stratus will retreat back to the coast 18Z-20Z for
VFR conditions over the interior of western Washington with IFR or
low MVFR continuing near the immediate coast. A more substantial
marine push will bring low clouds further inland tonight for IFR or
low MVFR throughout the region west of the Cascades.

KSEA...Satellite imagery shows stratus getting into the south sound
as of 09Z so confidence is rather high that some IFR in low clouds
can expected from 12Z through 16Z or 17Z this morning. The low
clouds should scatter out for VFR from late morning through the
evening. A stronger marine push tonight will bring the stratus in
earlier tonight...by 08Z or so. Surface winds S-SW 5 to 10 knots.

27

&&

.MARINE...Strong onshore flow is expected through tonight as
surface high pressure builds offshore and lower pressure shifts
from the inland waters to east of the Cascades. The onshore flow
will peak this evening then will remain strong, but be slightly
lower Wednesday through Saturday.

Strongest winds will be over the eastern two thirds of the Strait
of Juan de Fuca during the afternoon and overnight hours. Small
craft advisory level winds in that area early this morning will
ease later this morning then will strengthen to gale force early
this evening. The gales will continue into the early morning hours
on Wednesday before slowly easing. Small craft advisory level
winds are possible near the strait in Admiralty Inlet and in the
southern portion of the Northern Inland Waters this evening.
Albrecht

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Huh?

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/SEW/AFDSEW

000
FXUS66 KSEW 150934
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
234 AM PDT TUE May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler marine air pushed into Western Washington
overnight. Marine layer cloudiness will be persistent on the coast
for the next several days. For the interior of Western Washington
along the I-5 corridor, areas of morning clouds today will be more
extensive Wednesday and Thursday as the marine layer deepens.
There will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms at times in the
Cascades through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...At 2am stratus was pushing into Puget Sound and had
also spread down the Strait of Juan de Fuca and reached Whidbey
Island. Areas of morning low clouds and patchy fog will give way
to a mostly sunny day for much of Western Washington, but with
cooler temps. Wed and Thursday will see deeper marine layer clouds
burning off later, and temps will be closer to average for the rest
of the weak. Some instability over the Cascades could lead to
isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evenings.


.LONG TERM...Little change is expected in the extended portion of
the forecast--marine layer clouds should be confined to the late
night and morning hours. A chance of showers should be limited to
the Cascades--but there is a chance Friday and Saturday that showers
could drift off the mountains and move over the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...Upper level ridge axis shifting eastward over the
northern Rockies this morning with light south-southeast flow aloft
over Western Washington. Air mass is dry and stable except for some
low level marine moisture moving inland from the coast with
increasing low level onshore flow. IFR ceilings in stratus can
expected from parts of the Puget Sound area westward to the coast
this morning. The stratus will retreat back to the coast 18Z-20Z for
VFR conditions over the interior of western Washington with IFR or
low MVFR continuing near the immediate coast. A more substantial
marine push will bring low clouds further inland tonight for IFR or
low MVFR throughout the region west of the Cascades.

KSEA...Satellite imagery shows stratus getting into the south sound
as of 09Z so confidence is rather high that some IFR in low clouds
can expected from 12Z through 16Z or 17Z this morning. The low
clouds should scatter out for VFR from late morning through the
evening. A stronger marine push tonight will bring the stratus in
earlier tonight...by 08Z or so. Surface winds S-SW 5 to 10 knots.

27

&&

.MARINE...Strong onshore flow is expected through tonight as
surface high pressure builds offshore and lower pressure shifts
from the inland waters to east of the Cascades. The onshore flow
will peak this evening then will remain strong, but be slightly
lower Wednesday through Saturday.

Strongest winds will be over the eastern two thirds of the Strait
of Juan de Fuca during the afternoon and overnight hours. Small
craft advisory level winds in that area early this morning will
ease later this morning then will strengthen to gale force early
this evening. The gales will continue into the early morning hours
on Wednesday before slowly easing. Small craft advisory level
winds are possible near the strait in Admiralty Inlet and in the
southern portion of the Northern Inland Waters this evening.
Albrecht

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

May 2018?

[GHweatherChris]

Hail and rain currently, 38°, new low for today. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Hail and rain currently, 38°, new low for today. 

Exciting day. How are the raccoons liking it?

[Cloud]

Trying to take out KRTX. 

[RentonHill]

Euro seems like it has it now. Shutting down.

[GHweatherChris]

24 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Exciting day. How are the raccoons liking it?

They are loving it, they dropped off a fruit basket today with a note that said, "we will leave 11/21 and the few weeks after alone, for now".

[GHweatherChris]

0z Euro is adamant I will see snow sometime tonight.  No way in hell.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z runs were boring, so I created an entry. Wish me luck.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z runs were boring, so I created an entry. Wish me luck.

Lmfao