PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a new WWA for the Northern Oregon Cascades. Nice to see. 

[TT-SEA]

Zoomed in view of Mt Si...

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thats some fine slab. Will make for a wonderful gathering spot at the party. 

I would appreciate it if you could keep it shoveled off.   

[RentonHill]

Looks like ski patrol doing chairlift rescue training at Alpental...cool

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Good for Phil!

 

Meh. Wasted at this time of year.

Very difficult to get snow here before the winter solstice.

[Blizzard777]

Looks fun along the coast for tomorrow nights storm into early Tuesday morning.  HRRR 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the ECMWF may be heading to a cold place by the end of the run.  Today's 12z GEM was very much like last night's ECMWF as well.

[snow drift]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Meh. Wasted at this time of year.

Very difficult to get snow here before the winter solstice.

Wasted patterns are a drag. In my area, November snow is pretty common. That looks like fog pattern here.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Looks fun along the coast for tomorrow nights storm into early Tuesday morning.  HRRR 

Quite remarkable how similar this situation is to what we had a couple of weeks ago.  If the general pattern keeps repeating it's only a matter of time before the placement will nail us with a windstorm.  The thing is we will probably transition to a colder overall regime before the pattern has a chance to repeat again.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

Wasted patterns are a drag. In my area, November snow is pretty common. That looks like fog pattern here.

Even over here snow is not hard to pull off in November.  I don't think many people realize how warm November really is for much of the Eastern US.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF seems to be sold on a 150 block at mid month.

[snow_wizard]

Man oh man there's a lot of cold air available with that situation coming up.  A huge pool of maritime polar air sweeps in and then a huge mass of Arctic air over Alaska begins to move down.  1955 has been an off and on analog for a while now, as well as 2006 and some other ones that had November cold waves.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Even over here snow is not hard to pull off in November.  I don't think many people realize how warm November really is for much of the Eastern US.

Yep, we’re usually last the last to the party.

We average more snowfall in March than December.

[snow_wizard]

This ECMWF run is dangerously close to being a very big deal.  We'll just have to see how future runs evolve.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Man oh man there's a lot of cold air available with that situation coming up.  A huge pool of maritime polar air sweeps in and then a huge mass of Arctic air over Alaska begins to move down.  1955 has been an off and on analog for a while now, as well as 2006 and some other ones that had November cold waves.

I could see something like November 2006 happening. 

[Phil]

Euro finally gets that vortex out of the Gulf of Alaska in the LR.

Though it’s a tricky pattern evolution with high uncertainty. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yep, we’re usually last the last to the party.

We average more snowfall in March than December.

Same here... At least in the 10+ years I have been here. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yep, we’re usually last the last to the party.

We average more snowfall in March than December.

I never have fully understood why we are so much more capable of getting cold early in the season than late in this region.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

6z is at 10 PM now.

Not for the model run time. 6z NAM 11:39 PM, 6z GFS 1:35 AM

[Phil]

The extermination of the GOA low is likely legit, especially heading into late November and December, but how it happens isn’t easy to pick out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is loving that first week of December. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Same here... At least in the 10+ years I have been here. 

Historically not so much though.  We will never see a December 2008 in March.  That having been said early March can nail us sometimes though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The extermination of the GOA low is likely legit, especially heading into late November and December, but how it happens isn’t easy to pick out.

Yeah....The evolution is very tricky.  The ECMWF seems bullish on a favorable evolution for cold in the NW at mid month, but that could easily change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Historically not so much though.  We will never see a December 2008 in March.  That having been said early March can nail us sometimes though.

At 1600'... March 1951 was snowier than December 2008 here. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I never have fully understood why we are so much more capable of getting cold early in the season than late in this region.

Pretty simple. Being so maritime-dominant, our lowland snow season is much more in line with the solstice due to the needed assistance of inversions and full latitude blocking. 

[snow_wizard]

850s drop to -6 over SEA and -8 over Everett by the end of the 12z ECMWF.  It's very close to greatness.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At 1600'... March 1951 was snowier than December 2008 here. 

I'm not surprised.  I was thinking more of Arctic air and duration though.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS is loving that first week of December. 

East wind!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm not surprised.  I was thinking more of Arctic air and duration though.

Yeah, March isn't capable of the kind of cold December is. 

[RentonHill]

Full 12z euro run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Full 12z euro run

Looks like the cold air is going to east. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the cold air is going to east. 

Wouldn’t  that strengthening SE ridge sort of bottle it up in the Midwest?

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could see something like November 2006 happening. 

I would be okay with that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wouldn’t  that strengthening SE ridge sort of bottle it up in the Midwest?

I meant east of us. It looks like its diving into the Intermountain region.

[RentonHill]

12 EPS through hour 312

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12 EPS through hour 312

Oof

[Gradient Keeper]

Yuck. Onto 00z ....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

39 degrees and rain.  Impressive cold November day.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty simple. Being so maritime-dominant, our lowland snow season is much more in line with the solstice due to the needed assistance of inversions and full latitude blocking. 

I'm talking more about why the upper level stuff is usually more supportive early in the season than late.

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yuck. Onto 00z ....

The ECMWF was quite good and the EPS continues to trend more toward it.  I'm pretty surprised nobody seemed too impressed with the ECMWF today.  150 block, and a lot of cold air in play.