SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks like a new WWA for the Northern Oregon Cascades. Nice to see. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Zoomed in view of Mt Si... 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Thats some fine slab. Will make for a wonderful gathering spot at the party. I would appreciate it if you could keep it shoveled off. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks like ski patrol doing chairlift rescue training at Alpental...cool 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: Good for Phil! Meh. Wasted at this time of year. Very difficult to get snow here before the winter solstice. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks fun along the coast for tomorrow nights storm into early Tuesday morning. HRRR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks like the ECMWF may be heading to a cold place by the end of the run. Today's 12z GEM was very much like last night's ECMWF as well. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, Phil said: Meh. Wasted at this time of year. Very difficult to get snow here before the winter solstice. Wasted patterns are a drag. In my area, November snow is pretty common. That looks like fog pattern here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Looks fun along the coast for tomorrow nights storm into early Tuesday morning. HRRR Quite remarkable how similar this situation is to what we had a couple of weeks ago. If the general pattern keeps repeating it's only a matter of time before the placement will nail us with a windstorm. The thing is we will probably transition to a colder overall regime before the pattern has a chance to repeat again. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 minute ago, snow drift said: Wasted patterns are a drag. In my area, November snow is pretty common. That looks like fog pattern here. Even over here snow is not hard to pull off in November. I don't think many people realize how warm November really is for much of the Eastern US. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 The ECMWF seems to be sold on a 150 block at mid month. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Man oh man there's a lot of cold air available with that situation coming up. A huge pool of maritime polar air sweeps in and then a huge mass of Arctic air over Alaska begins to move down. 1955 has been an off and on analog for a while now, as well as 2006 and some other ones that had November cold waves. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Even over here snow is not hard to pull off in November. I don't think many people realize how warm November really is for much of the Eastern US. Yep, we’re usually last the last to the party. We average more snowfall in March than December. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 This ECMWF run is dangerously close to being a very big deal. We'll just have to see how future runs evolve. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Man oh man there's a lot of cold air available with that situation coming up. A huge pool of maritime polar air sweeps in and then a huge mass of Arctic air over Alaska begins to move down. 1955 has been an off and on analog for a while now, as well as 2006 and some other ones that had November cold waves. I could see something like November 2006 happening. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Euro finally gets that vortex out of the Gulf of Alaska in the LR. Though it’s a tricky pattern evolution with high uncertainty. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Yep, we’re usually last the last to the party. We average more snowfall in March than December. Same here... At least in the 10+ years I have been here. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Yep, we’re usually last the last to the party. We average more snowfall in March than December. I never have fully understood why we are so much more capable of getting cold early in the season than late in this region. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: 6z is at 10 PM now. Not for the model run time. 6z NAM 11:39 PM, 6z GFS 1:35 AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 The extermination of the GOA low is likely legit, especially heading into late November and December, but how it happens isn’t easy to pick out. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 CFS is loving that first week of December. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Same here... At least in the 10+ years I have been here. Historically not so much though. We will never see a December 2008 in March. That having been said early March can nail us sometimes though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: The extermination of the GOA low is likely legit, especially heading into late November and December, but how it happens isn’t easy to pick out. Yeah....The evolution is very tricky. The ECMWF seems bullish on a favorable evolution for cold in the NW at mid month, but that could easily change. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Historically not so much though. We will never see a December 2008 in March. That having been said early March can nail us sometimes though. At 1600'... March 1951 was snowier than December 2008 here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I never have fully understood why we are so much more capable of getting cold early in the season than late in this region. Pretty simple. Being so maritime-dominant, our lowland snow season is much more in line with the solstice due to the needed assistance of inversions and full latitude blocking. 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 850s drop to -6 over SEA and -8 over Everett by the end of the 12z ECMWF. It's very close to greatness. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At 1600'... March 1951 was snowier than December 2008 here. I'm not surprised. I was thinking more of Arctic air and duration though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS is loving that first week of December. East wind! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm not surprised. I was thinking more of Arctic air and duration though. Yeah, March isn't capable of the kind of cold December is. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Full 12z euro run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Full 12z euro run Looks like the cold air is going to east. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like the cold air is going to east. Wouldn’t that strengthening SE ridge sort of bottle it up in the Midwest? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I could see something like November 2006 happening. I would be okay with that. 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Wouldn’t that strengthening SE ridge sort of bottle it up in the Midwest? I meant east of us. It looks like its diving into the Intermountain region. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 12 EPS through hour 312 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: 12 EPS through hour 312 Oof Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Yuck. Onto 00z .... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 39 degrees and rain. Impressive cold November day. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: Pretty simple. Being so maritime-dominant, our lowland snow season is much more in line with the solstice due to the needed assistance of inversions and full latitude blocking. I'm talking more about why the upper level stuff is usually more supportive early in the season than late. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yuck. Onto 00z .... The ECMWF was quite good and the EPS continues to trend more toward it. I'm pretty surprised nobody seemed too impressed with the ECMWF today. 150 block, and a lot of cold air in play. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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