TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm retarded. What does that mean? Are you thinking the AR lifts further north? 6z NAM in 1 hour I don't have my weather sportsbook set up yet. And yes. it'll end up being less than forecast throughout the Willamette Valley. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 8 hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF Day 8 hmmm.... Too much out over the ocean. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 The ECMWF still delivers an impressive maritime polar airmass early in week two. Nice to see we're having no trouble getting cold air in here so far. Amazingly it has actually cleared out for a few minutes here with the temp down to 38. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 30 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Canadian ensembles going places Very decent. The models are starting to see something out there. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Too much out over the ocean. It will get closer. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm retarded. What does that mean? Are you thinking the AR lifts further north? 6z NAM in 1 hour I’m clowning on Joshua. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Day 10. Nope, not this run, but a huge reservoir of arctic air to our north sliding southward into BC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Nice to see a blockier regime showing up. The ECMWF delivers a cold air mass in the 8 to 9 day period with the upstream ridge moving over us with an inversion at the very end. Looks like another trough digging down the BC Coast may reach us after that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10. Nope, not this run, but a huge reservoir of arctic air to our north sliding southward into BC. Still far from terrible and that maritime polar air mass gets us solidly before this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 D**n near every analog tonight was from a year that delivered big time. Love to see that. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 EPS running yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Watching for the potential of a surprise windstorm on Tuesday for Washington. Hrrr6z is picking up on what some gfs and euro members were showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Watching for the potential of a surprise windstorm on Tuesday for Washington. Hrrr6z is picking up on what some gfs and euro members were showing. Tuesday is back on! #reversebust 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Watching for the potential of a surprise windstorm on Tuesday for Washington. Hrrr6z is picking up on what some gfs and euro members were showing. Very interesting. Good find. Thanks. 6z GFS in 1 hour 31 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 6z NAM 3km too hmmm.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 6z NAM 3km 982mb Olympic Peninsula Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 IF 6z GFS shows this expect the AFDs to be quite different in a few hours.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: IF 6z GFS shows this expect the AFDs to be quite different in a few hours.... C’MON!!! Gotta reward @RentonHillTCfor all the hard work he’s put in for this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: C’MON!!! Gotta reward @RentonHillTCfor all the hard work he’s out in for this storm. For sure! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: IF 6z GFS shows this expect the AFDs to be quite different in a few hours.... What are the afds? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: For sure! You caught the unadulterated and unedited version! Put* btw lol I love mobile autocorrect 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: What are the afds? Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: What are the afds? Area forecast discussions. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=sew&issuedby=sew&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: Area forecast discussions. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=sew&issuedby=sew&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Ohh, yeah I know what those are. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 7z HRRR closes the wave off with a deepening surface low even sooner. Hmmm.... 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 One nice thing about daylight savings is that the models come out sooner in the day. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Hmmm, so checking the past few runs of the mesoscale models, FV3 Hi-Res, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, RGEM, HRRR, NAM 3km, and all have trended to developing either a strong wave of low pressure or closed surface low moving onto the WA coast. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hmmm, so checking the past few runs of the mesoscale models, FV3 Hi-Res, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, RGEM, HRRR, NAM 3km, and all have trended to developing either a strong wave of low pressure or closed surface low moving onto the WA coast. This could get interesting. Now I'm interested to what the 6z GFS is going to show. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Are we gonna get a surprise blow? 2 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 6z ICON not onboard with a bit weaker open wave. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z ICON not onboard with a bit weaker open wave. ICON definitely seems closer to last run, actually. Sharper gradient, more semblance of a closed low than whatever last run showed haha 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 GFS not on board yet, but not too surprised. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 6z GFS did have a decent gradient and pressure rises. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 This has a very similar look to 1/6/19 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I’m clowning on Joshua. 10th percentile is 1.69” at PDX through Friday. You want that action? I know you’re just messing with me. I will feel a whole lot better about our odds when we’re within 48 hours. Otherwise, I have seen these things fall apart wayyyy too many times of late. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 9 hours ago, Skagit Weather said: It was definitely up on the mountains around you though. I was up on Rattlesnake Mountain this evening. Snow level started around 2,000 ft and by 3,000 ft there was 8-12”+ of fresh snow. Great pics... did you come all the way down here to see snow? 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: This has a very similar look to 1/6/19 That is not good... that was a bad storm here. Knocked out the power for a couple days and took down some trees in our area. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 SEA has not had rain since midnight... so this will likely be the first dry day of the month. 40 in North Bend and 39 here and it looks like skies are clearing. Might even see some sun today. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 48 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: 10th percentile is 1.69” at PDX through Friday. You want that action? I know you’re just messing with me. I will feel a whole lot better about our odds when we’re within 48 hours. Otherwise, I have seen these things fall apart wayyyy too many times of late. You know I am just busting your chops! 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.