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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm retarded. What does that mean? Are you thinking the AR lifts further north?

6z NAM in 1 hour

I don't have my weather sportsbook set up yet. And yes. it'll end up being less than forecast throughout the Willamette Valley.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 8 hmmm....

500h_anom.na.png

Too much out over the ocean.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The ECMWF still delivers an impressive maritime polar airmass early in week two.  Nice to see we're having no trouble getting cold air in here so far.

Amazingly it has actually cleared out for a few minutes here with the temp down to 38.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Canadian ensembles going places

500h_anom.na.png

Very decent.  The models are starting to see something out there.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Too much out over the ocean.

It will get closer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm retarded. What does that mean? Are you thinking the AR lifts further north?

6z NAM in 1 hour

I’m clowning on Joshua.

  • lol 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Nice to see a blockier regime showing up.  The ECMWF delivers a cold air mass in the 8 to 9 day period with the upstream ridge moving over us with an inversion at the very end.  Looks like another trough digging down the BC Coast may reach us after that.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10. Nope, not this run, but a huge reservoir of arctic air to our north sliding southward into BC.

500h_anom.na.png

850t.na.png

Still far from terrible and that maritime polar air mass gets us solidly before this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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D**n near every analog tonight was from a year that delivered big time.  Love to see that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Watching for the potential of a surprise windstorm on Tuesday for Washington. Hrrr6z is picking up on what some gfs and euro members were showing.

4BC24C6F-35F2-4BB7-BA4D-3F9006CBB324.png

Tuesday is back on! #reversebust

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13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm, so checking the past few runs of the mesoscale models, FV3 Hi-Res, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, RGEM, HRRR, NAM 3km, and all have trended to developing either a strong wave of low pressure or closed surface low moving onto the WA coast.

This could get interesting. Now I'm interested to what the 6z GFS is going to show. 

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Are we gonna get a surprise blow?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z ICON not onboard with a bit weaker open wave.

 

ICON definitely seems closer to last run, actually. Sharper gradient, more semblance of a closed low than whatever last run showed haha

  • Windy 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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GFS not on board yet, but not too surprised.

  • Windy 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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This has a very similar look to 1/6/19

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m clowning on Joshua.

10th percentile is 1.69” at PDX through Friday. You want that action? I know you’re just messing with me. I will feel a whole lot better about our odds when we’re within 48 hours. Otherwise, I have seen these things fall apart wayyyy too many times of late.

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9 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

It was definitely up on the mountains around you though. I was up on Rattlesnake Mountain this evening. Snow level started around 2,000 ft and by 3,000 ft there was 8-12”+ of fresh snow.

EA365844-701E-4301-A3A1-48EDEEAD0244.thumb.jpeg.b8b74af6ec75fe40ae2a06df7f80c501.jpeg
 

3C413D11-0576-4EBB-AF04-D5F60B4074EE.thumb.jpeg.1a51bee24c764d53d2dd516bf26b5bcb.jpeg

Great pics... did you come all the way down here to see snow?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

This has a very similar look to 1/6/19

That is not good... that was a bad storm here.    Knocked out the power for a couple days and took down some trees in our area.

  • Windy 1
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA has not had rain since midnight... so this will likely be the first dry day of the month.  

40 in North Bend and 39 here and it looks like skies are clearing.    Might even see some sun today.

  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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48 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

10th percentile is 1.69” at PDX through Friday. You want that action? I know you’re just messing with me. I will feel a whole lot better about our odds when we’re within 48 hours. Otherwise, I have seen these things fall apart wayyyy too many times of late.

You know I am just busting your chops!

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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