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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Now I'm worried. The one on 72nd? There's also one by 6th Ave, but that's a grocery store only which is weird to me. 

His store has a garden center... he has posted pics from there.

But without knowing his name we really can't do much.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kind of bummed about the AR trending north. At least it's not a snow storm. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Maybe he's camping somewhere that has no cell service. 

Maybe... but its been 5 days now and that is longer than any camping trip he has taken.    Plus the weather was really bad over the weekend and he had just taken a trip to the Orcas the weekend before.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but its been 5 days now and that is longer than any camping trip he has taken.    Plus the weather was really bad over the weekend and he had just taken a trip to the Orcas the weekend before.

D**n I hope the guy Is ok.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but its been 5 days now and that is longer than any camping trip he has taken.    Plus the weather was really bad over the weekend and he had just taken a trip to the Orcas the weekend before.

Once I forgot my password on this site when I got a new phone and was locked out for a while. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once I forgot my password on this site when I got a new phone and was locked out for a while. 

Ahhh... good point.    Did not think of that.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh... good point.    Did not think of that.   

Yeah same thing happened to me, remember I had to FB message you to get a hold of Fred haha! Hopefully that is the issue here. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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17 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Same here, I bet he's fine, he could just be taking some personal time. 

Probably... but he has said some things about a hostile situation in his personal life that raises concern when he drops off with no warning.     Particularly during a very stormy period when he always posts during active weather.     He has given us a heads up before when he was taking a break.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Never seen this before.

 

FDxvDFMVQAUmHZm.jpg

This is the first time locally I’ve had the local news tracking the cell live, interrupted with the official alert from the emergency broadcast system and the followed up by the radio announcement as well.  Just wild! 
 

I wonder if this is the trend for our winter! 

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wind has been dead quiet so far this morning and there are some breaks in the clouds overhead.

I see Enumclaw reported a gust to 51 mph last night. Pretty much exactly what the NAM showed. I know it gets a ton of flak on here but for east wind events, it seems to do pretty well. 

The NAM is very good with wind in close range. Much better than the GFS and possibly better than the Euro (at least around here).

But it has to be < 24hrs from the event. Because its synoptic scale solutions are so unstable and the model is prone to convective feedback issues beyond +24hrs.

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably... but he has said some things about a hostile situation in his personal life that raises concern when he drops off with no warning.     Particularly during a very stormy period when he always posts during active weather.     He has given us a heads up before when he was taking a break.     

Crap I do remember him talking about that.

Hope he’s alright.

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12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS is trending weaker with the blocking for the middle of next week... compare the 00Z run tonight (top) to the 00Z run from last night (bottom).    I think it might be too early as Matt has been saying.   Things are still too progressive.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7193600 (2).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7193600 (3).png

Here is 12z EPS for that same frame plus full run. 

image.thumb.png.3bfe886e6fc119aece8f6f68fe725596.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1636459200-1636459200-1637755200-20-1.thumb.gif.5ce2bdb248178979bc10bc1d0e0247ee.gif

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...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Thurston...eastern Grays Harbor and southwestern Mason Counties
through 115 PM PST...

At 1224 PM PST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong 
thunderstorms 8 miles southwest of Matlock, or 13 miles north of 
Montesano, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around 
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is 
         possible. 

Locations impacted include...
Shelton, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Matlock, Melbourne, Satsop,
Malone-Porter, Skokomish, Tahuya and Central Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. 

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

klgx_20211109_2026_BR_0.2.png

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When was the last time the coastal PNW was the tornado warning epicenter of the country? I can’t think of any examples.

It’s the opposite of what usually happens. :lol: 

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24 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Its my neighborhood FM.  Maybe I should go in after work and ask??

If u have the time, it doesn’t hurt to try. Fred could always do an IP trace on the account which entail would lead to more information about who he is. That might be an Invasion of privacy tho

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First time hearing the EAS activated for weather since the big ice storm of 2012. 
Sky looked a little ominous to the south on my drive home for lunch. 

A6AAD93A-5ECD-429A-A5BB-22E9BA0C9101.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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