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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

People are weird

8233F491-3B27-4A93-997B-8AC537FD00D1.png

7D527189-E565-4A15-B497-38395374ED28.png

CC5C7470-21FC-4F31-A1A3-E22908F461C0.png

My Dad actually knows his family personally, from what I have heard I am not surprised. He has some pretty significant issues. We all do, but maybe not manifesting in this way...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Wait. Is he that one guy was on Mark's Fox 12 Weather Blog uhhh  Triforce or something?

The one and only. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You guys we already have a villain. His name is Tim. 

You see, Tim will party poop all over your hopes and dreams with how right the EMCWF or EPS is. 

I agree. What is so infuriating about Tim are all his facts. lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I remember those post.  Strange.  Glad my memory wasn't failing me.

That’s the only reason I remember it. Bizarre stuff, something about being enslaved by a dominatrix who subsequently fabricated his death on a weather forum.

I’m the last one that should be bringing up fabricated stories, but mine were lame by comparison. 😂

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

So, why was Jesse banned again?  Care to share those examples?  Other than he told someone to eff off, which, a bunch of us have done in different ways to each other and we are still here.

Not being rude at all here, you should probably take this up with Fred on PM. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, iFred said:

It’s not happening.

As long as I’m running the place, he is not coming back. The same goes with @Link.

There are two aspects to this, one is that I have to be at the end of all of the abuse reports. I don’t have the time nor the energy to deal with someone who thinks that their tenure with the community gives them enough leeway to get a 13th chance at getting unbanned. The other is that it’s more than “oh they had some good views” or “their anger was justified”, it’s that I don’t like having people send me repeated DMs about how they’re the victim when the deleted forum post says otherwise.

So I really don’t care about how everyone feels about it. I just don’t want to deal with it anymore.

Dealing with all the unseen crud from your chair I understand. Thanks for all you do IFred behind the scene. 😊  

On with weather 🌈 

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

He made things public. 

True good point you’re right there but I still don’t think it’s a conversation to be had here. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Fred about to drive this forum and all of us dickheads off a D**n cliff

driving chris farley GIF

I like the transparency tho. We now understand things were happening behind scenes and he wanted us to understand the full situation. 

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This run is a lot better than the 18z down here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Excited for the folks in the Northern Valleys who got snow today. I'm still patiently waiting for snow. Sat through another Spotter meeting for a refresher tonight. More my level of commitment vs Cocorahs. 

I took Thursday off since my son has no school. I was going to save it for a snow day but last year I took a day off whenever the models looked good. 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

00z NAM (top) vs 00z GFS (bottom) - Total Precip through Friday night 84 hours

NAM actually looks much more reasonable. But how legit is the NAM (which has done OK) at 84 hours out vs relative close range for the GFS (turd sandwich) 

image.thumb.png.9e822fc32bf88c95764a83eed5ad5379.png

image.thumb.png.1ef7dabbacaaadc80d2866d4ece50c1b.png

The NAM looks like it must have higher resolution, it's showing the WV rain shadow a lot more clearly, it shows pretty much the same if not more precip here than the GFS. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

00z NAM (top) vs 00z GFS (bottom) - Total Precip through Friday night 84 hours

NAM actually looks much more reasonable. But how legit is the NAM (which has done OK) at 84 hours out vs relative close range for the GFS (turd sandwich) 

image.thumb.png.9e822fc32bf88c95764a83eed5ad5379.png

image.thumb.png.1ef7dabbacaaadc80d2866d4ece50c1b.png

When has the NAM ever been right? I must have missed it.

18z Euro is in between.  More than the NAM but less than the GFS

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_precip_inch-6783200.png

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

When has the NAM ever been right? I must have missed it.

18z Euro is in between.  More than the NAM but less than the GFS

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_precip_inch-6783200.png

I thought the NAM handled this most recent system the best...but thats totally subjective and not backed up by anything specific that i'm willing to go dig for right now. 

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Hard to argue against 2007/08-lite as the most likely large scale seasonal evolution. One of many possibilities but it has a lot going for it.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hard to argue against 2007/08-lite as the most likely large scale seasonal evolution. One of many possibilities but it has a lot going for it.

Nine times out of ten that Winter’s large scale pattern would have resulted in a very good Winter here. Tiny details just kept screwing most people below 800 feet.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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