PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jesse messaged me on MySpace and asked me to downvote this post.

Go ahead and do it. Can’t remember the last time I got a downvote.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Go ahead and do it. Can’t remember the last time I got a downvote.

I reached my limit for the day.

[RentonHill]

Full 12z EPS Run 

 

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I realize it does not work this way... but if you take out the last 2 weeks of June the rest of the summer was very close to normal in Seattle.     So 83% of the summer (10 out of 12 weeks) averaged close to normal.     The last 2 weeks of June skewed the entire season to the warm side up here.   I realize it was different down south.

Front Ranger is that you??

[Gradient Keeper]

Think Jet Suppression!

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Think Jet Suppression!

 

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I think Jim mentioned the dead pine needles the other day. We have massive amounts of fir needles on the ground like never seen before.  Mossman doesn't have any. I don't think he hit 100 degrees either.

I hit 103 on the hottest day, that was the only triple digit day I had. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Great song, November rain. Saw it live 4 years ago. Always impressive to see a rock legend like axle rose play a piano like he can. 

You see it at the Gorge?  I was there with my son for his birthday.  Amazing show.

[GobBluth]

Perhaps grasping at straws, but I think a good sign for the Pacific to split and develop a distinctive polar and subtropical jet. 

[Phil]

38 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Full 12z EPS Run 

 

The last few frames are interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The last few frames are interesting.

I noticed that AS WELL. 

[Bonovox]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Great song, November rain. Saw it live 4 years ago. Always impressive to see a rock legend like axle rose play a piano like he can. 

Great song! I got the cover of Appetite for Destruction tattooed on my upper arm when I was 18. I'm 37 now and still no regrets, but we'll see in another 10 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm. CFS monthlies look sort of like 2011-12. 

 

December: Normal temps (Some below normal northern oregon, southern washington), below average precip. 

January: Below normal temps Washington, northern Oregon, average temps about 75% of Oregon. Above average precip.

February: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

March: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

April: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

May: Below normal temps, normal precip.

June: Normal temps, normal precip. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is pretty intense for W. Washington. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm. CFS monthlies look sort of like 2011-12. 

 

December: Normal temps (Some below normal northern oregon, southern washington), below average precip. 

January: Below normal temps Washington, northern Oregon, average temps about 75% of Oregon. Above average precip.

February: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

March: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

April: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

May: Below normal temps, normal precip.

June: Normal temps, normal precip. 

La Nina?

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICON is pretty intense for W. Washington. 

these are CLOWN numbers bro

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wide area of 2"+ precip. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

these are CLOWN numbers bro

GFS is trying to 1up it so far...concentrating all fire power into the OLY-Longview corridor

[Skagit Weather]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I hit 103 on the hottest day, that was the only triple digit day I had. 

Only hit 96F here and all the trees (including fir) seem to be doing okay still. Especially the fruit trees (not that they should have a problem with heat) which it was the best year we've ever had. This last week I picked 300+ pounds of apples from a single tree and a couple weeks ago got more than 200 pounds of pears from a single tree.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Another atmospheric river up there. Meanwhile Santa Ana winds should hit California. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wide area of 2"+ precip. 

That PDX donut hole keeps showing up. I believe that parts of Washington and Columbia counties will be the most shadowed. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

And by the end of round 2...

Kuchera please?

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

And by the end of round 2...

GFS is just a joke.    That won't happen.   

Here is the ECMWF through the exact same time:

 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Bonovox said:

Great song! I got the cover of Appetite for Destruction tattooed on my upper arm when I was 18. I'm 37 now and still no regrets, but we'll see in another 10 years.

For me there was a long wait between the death of John Bonham and the arrival of GnR. At least in terms of guitar based rock that I listened to at hearing damaging volume. No resulting tats though. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is just a joke.    That won't happen.   

Here is the ECMWF through the exact same time:

 

This looks much better to me. We tend to get water finding its way into the south and west sides of the house during unrelenting AR events. I *think* we have found and fixed the sources of these problems, but every prolonged rain event makes me nervous that there are more moles to be whacked. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

This looks much better to me. We tend to get water finding its way into the south and west sides of the house during unrelenting AR events. I *think* we have found and fixed the sources of these problems, but every prolonged rain event makes me nervous that there are more moles to be whacked. 

Let’s do a french drain!  I love digging up other people’s yards.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Which model performed better for the late October AR?

Don't remember... but that is basically for just the next 5 days.   The pattern is pretty well set and there is no way its going to rain more than half a foot in Seattle.     I do remember a couple GFS runs that showed biblical flooding in Seattle and Tacoma last time just a few days out.    Obviously that did not happen.  

[TacomaWaWx]

54/42 today…its cloudy now. 

[T-Town]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Let’s do a french drain!  I love digging up other people’s yards.

Sounds good. I will provide commemorative shovels as a keepsake. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Sounds good. I will provide commemorative shovels as a keepsake. 

I'll bring over some beers and bud then make smart-a$$ comments while subsequently falling on my own a$$ trying to dig.

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'll bring over some beers and bud then make smart-a** comments while subsequently falling on my own a$$ trying to dig.

Bring the beers and bud and we can figure out the details. 

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Bring the beers and bud and we can figure out the details. 

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

The way this is shaping up I’m not sure we’re going to get a lot of digging done. 

[Kolk1604]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is just a joke.    That won't happen.   

Here is the ECMWF through the exact same time:

 

See... villain

ICON was pretty absurd too 5 days out

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We could do some sort of a roast of Tim.

[Meatyorologist]

Oh hey

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Besides the coast, we are among the least snowiest places in Western WA by the end of the run. 

Typical Maple Valley, getting screwed again!

Wow wasn't expecting that. Right after Thanksgiving 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

See... villain

ICON was pretty absurd too 5 days out

Not a villain.    I don't think too many people are cheering for massive flooding.     Now... if that was a snowfall map then villain would be appropriate.  

[Requiem]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh hey

Lock it in!

[Timmy Supercell]

48 and mostly cloudy in Elko, NV! High of 50 looks like.

Got a night at another 3-in-one hotel, Casino/Restaurant/Inn! Lots of those around here.

Taking I80 so far is smooth, but once I get to Salt Lake City, UT may consider going south through Cedar City and taking I89 into Flagstaff.