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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Seems like things dry out slightly about this time next week on the euro and the gfs in western WA…but we will see if that actually happens or not. 

GFS yeah after 8 inches of rain lol. The Euro is more wet than the 12z

EPS also has snow end of next week. Fun times ahead 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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54 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

image.png.e669a186f29c9eba9655c445ba35c126.png

Rain with rising temperatures overnight. That's strange.

 

Happens all the time here in winter.

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48 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Have you ever experienced an overrunning snow event where it's below freezing at 4PM with snow and by midnight it's in the mid-40s with pouring rain and a slushy mess? Same concept! It's called a warm front. 🤮

IIRC, in 2018 we had a day where it went from 3°F and dry to 70°F with rain/thunder in under 36hrs.

And that 70°F occurred at midnight.

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I would love to experience that or vice versa

It was traumatizing actually. Didn’t get any frozen precip out of it. Not even sleet. 😂

Typical La Niña affair..cold/dry —-> warmup/rain —> cold dry. 

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28 minutes ago, Cloud said:

That time of year again where I just look around for subscription services. I never tried Pivotal before so thought I'd give it a shot, just a 7-day trial to see if I like and whether or not I want to continue. 

5 days totals. It's a bit wet. 

qpf_acc.us_state_wa.png

Don't even need to do the free trial with pivotal, I use it and have never signed up for anything. 

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Don't even need to do the free trial with pivotal, I use it and have never signed up for anything. 

You mean the local access? The regional view is okay, want to see what the local access and other sub features they have on there. So far, I think it's okay, it's not bad for the price. 

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You mean the local access? The regional view is okay, want to see what the local access and other sub features they have on there. So far, I think it's okay, it's not bad for the price. 

The free version shows the same pretty colors when you zoom in, not gonna pay for something just to get minute details.  Just my opinion, nothing else.

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Phew…That was a close one! Almost thought I would go an entire 24hrs without measurable precip…Now raining with .02” in the gauge for the day. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The free version shows the same pretty colors when you zoom in, not gonna pay for something just to get minute details.  Just my opinion, nothing else.

Pretty much. The local access is just HD version of the Regional View. Like I said, I want to see what other features they have on there besides the HD local view. It's nice if you want to see more details, but that's about it.  

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The ECMWF gets decently chilly the second half of the run with lows in the low to mid 30s away from the big cities, and highs in the 40s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6z gives us a first taste widespread cold air a week from today with lows at or near freezing and highs barely breaking 40. Just gotta get through this very wet stretch. And then "some" snow as well.

All of this inside 10 days. Fun times with the models ahead.  🤣

 

 

sn10_acc.us_state_wa.png

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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GFS Snowfall Totals.png

GFS fucking north south gradient.png

This location sucks.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Eugene with over an inch and a half of rain, seems like they actually overachieved for once.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 6z GFS spits out a high of 39 for SEA on one day.  Might be the first warning shot coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 hours ago, Deweydog said:

image.gif.fb4d2b9f6264de2da4dfe1c8908bdf7e.gif

Something we can all agree on....I hope.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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58 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Woke up with just 0.03" of rain, now up to almost 1/2" in the last half hour.  For a warm front, this rain is very heavy, with a peak rate of 1.42/hour.

Maybe the GFS will end up being right.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe the GFS will end up being right.

ECMWF and GFS are now in perfect agreement for Seattle through the weekend.   

GFS shows 2.44 inches and the ECMWF shows 2.46 inches at SEA.      GFS is running too dry now.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Seems like the first main push of rain set up a little further south than expected. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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