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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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I was getting worried when it didn’t start raining until 930p, but we had 0.85” before midnight and are over 1.5” since then. Nearing 6.5” on the month. Band of moderate to heavy rain is training over us right now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Due to the holiday, I checked an hour later than usual. 44F and overcast. Looks like we've had some rain.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just picked up 0.61” in an hour. 2.09” since midnight now, we should hit 7”

on the month before this round ends. 

  • Excited 1
  • scream 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's been almost 9 years since our last blizzard warning. 

Let's plan on resetting that counter come December.

Image

I wonder if that's just some sort of default number. I don't think there's any reason SEA NWS should have issued a blizzard warning on Dec 16/17, 2012 and it seems like there's way too many 32?? values out there for all those offices to have had blizzards only in 2012.

It's interesting because I would think blizzard conditions are pretty common in the Cascades, but I guess because no one lives up there they'll only issue WSW.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just picked up 0.61” in an hour. 2.09” since midnight now, we should hit 7”

on the month before this round ends. 

Muddy dogs! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS back to showing crazy rainfall totals by early next week...

index (10).png

Primarily because it shows about 4 or 5 inches of rain on Monday alone.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Primarily because it shows about 4 or 5 inches of rain on Monday alone.  

It’s not like we need another AR aiming right at us or anything. This run takes a direct aim at central sound with the heavy stuff then slowly sink south. And I mean very slowly. 
 

the 4 to 5 fall in a short period of time.

 

 

floop-gfs-2021111112.qpf_acc.us_state_wa.gif

floop-gfs-2021111112.prateptype_cat.us_state_wa.gif

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We ended up with 3.06” in 12 hours. 7.09” on the month.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3.20” so far this month here. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have back to back days with +1” of rainfall. Maybe another one on Monday. We are definitely going to be above normal soon. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

3.20” so far this month here. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have back to back days with +1” of rainfall. Maybe another one on Monday. 

SEA’s taking aim at breaking daily record today. Almost 2” is expected.  1.48” is record.

Monday the 15th is 1.09”. That one is most likely going to get shatter if future model runs is anything like the 12z.

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA’s taking aim at breaking daily record today. Almost 2” is expected.  1.48” is record.

Monday the 15th is 1.09”. That one is most likely going to get shatter if future model runs is anything like the 12z.

Very wet times indeed. Hopefully things lean towards the drier side the second half of the month…but in November the “drier side” is still fairly damp. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Meh, not even up to .5" of rain here today.

This AR is certainly no December 2019 or October 2003. On par with stuff we see here several times a year. We have had a decent amount of rain in the past couple weeks though…It’s more about the amount of rain we’ve gotten the past few weeks already. Not the wettest we’ve seen but pretty wet still. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This AR is certainly no December 2019 or October 2003. On par with stuff we see here several times a year. We have had a decent amount of rain in the past couple weeks though…It’s more about the amount of rain we’ve gotten the past few weeks already. Not the wettest we’ve seen but pretty wet still. 

The AR isn’t even here yet. Check back at the end of the day 

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The AR isn’t even here yet. Check back at the end of the day 

It highly doubt it rivals December 2019…that was like 4” in 24 hours with extreme rainfall rates. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF and GFS are now in perfect agreement for Seattle through the weekend.   

GFS shows 2.44 inches and the ECMWF shows 2.46 inches at SEA.      GFS is running too dry now.   😀

I bet you get more.

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's been almost 9 years since our last blizzard warning. 

Let's plan on resetting that counter come December.

Image

Why is Eugene in the Portland forecast zone? They barely ever mention us in the forecast discussion and there hasn’t been a blizzard in this location since like 1972. It’s been 1762 days since our last sub-freezing high for fuckk’s sake.

Absolute joke. We need our own NWS office in the south valley. The weather here does not feel like Portland…

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

I wonder if that's just some sort of default number. I don't think there's any reason SEA NWS should have issued a blizzard warning on Dec 16/17, 2012 and it seems like there's way too many 32?? values out there for all those offices to have had blizzards only in 2012.

It's interesting because I would think blizzard conditions are pretty common in the Cascades, but I guess because no one lives up there they'll only issue WSW.

Blizzard warning criteria are difficult to meet let alone maintain for the required duration of time.

Sustained at/above 35mph and/or visibility 1/4mi or less for at least three consecutive hours. Haven’t seen that here since January 2016. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Blizzard warning criteria are difficult to meet let alone maintain for the required duration of time.

Sustained at/above 35mph and/or visibility 1/4mi or less for at least three consecutive hours. Haven’t seen that here since January 2016. 

I’ve never seen that in my life.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It highly doubt it rivals December 2019…that was like 4” in 24 hours with extreme rainfall rates. 

Well yeah. You can tell by looking at the IR and WV that this AR doesn’t even have the plumes to last 24 to 48 hours. And to be fair, no one is bringing up the 2019 comparison and I’m not even comparing it, you brought that up. was more in line of a response to Chris’ post about receiving 0.5” and how we should check back later when the AR is here

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Just now, Cloud said:

Well yeah. You can tell by looking at the IR and WV that this AR doesn’t even have the plumes to last 24 to 48 hours. And to be fair, no one is bringing up the 2019 comparison and I’m not even comparing it, you brought that up. was more in line of a response to Chris’ post about receiving 0.5” and how we should check back later when the AR is here

Ah gotcha my bad. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The last two winters were kind of a crap sandwich, with some minor redeeming qualities. I really expected March to deliver last year, and it didn't. 

On the other hand, 2019-20 had a very enjoyable February/March. Chilly temps, and lots of sunny days. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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