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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks like temps in the 30s all day.

Sadly, not for this location...as is tradition.

EC Shit Location.png

Looks like it's 56F and partly cloudy out there. Coolest its been since Thursday.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sadly, not for this location...as is tradition.

EC Shit Location.png

Looks like it's 56F and partly cloudy out there. Coolest its been since Thursday.

It's still November. It's like NFL preseason football. The games are fun to watch, but they are essentially meaningless. The regular season starts in a couple of weeks.😉👍

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's still November. It's like NFL preseason football. The games are fun to watch, but they are essentially meaningless. The regular season starts in a couple of weeks.😉👍

The leadup is important too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sadly, not for this location...as is tradition.

EC Shit Location.png

Looks like it's 56F and partly cloudy out there. Coolest its been since Thursday.

Are you serious?  It dropped to 40 here last night.  I pray for your sake that this N to S gradient thing will go away as the season progresses.  I think the blocking coming up will be epic enough to get the entire NW cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Holy sheit!  EUG = +14, +15, +12 for the last three days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you serious?  It dropped to 40 here last night.  I pray for your sake that this N to S gradient thing will go away as the season progresses.  I think the blocking coming up will be epic enough to get the entire NW cold.

Yup, we are an absolute shitt location for interesting weather. Unless one likes to break heat and fire weather records.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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58 and cloudy. 🤢 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like a good slug of moisture coming in a bit further south in Gray's Harbor County.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As TWL would say. Nice summer evening. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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gfs_T2ma_namer_65.thumb.png.c5f2d5094a38bf9af616e787d2780d3f.png

La... Niña? 🤔

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

We’ve been in a narrow band of rain for hours now.

36582105-8368-4F48-9942-69C16EB3151F.png

Same here... the models have been showing that continuing most of the day.    Although visibility is pretty good here now and there are even some breaks in the clouds towards the rising sun.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll have to check what the trajectory was on the 1999 AR events.  Ones that come more directly from the west have a much better track record of leading to the goodies than ones that are SW or SSW.  I think that's because the more westerly trajectory ones indicate the axis of the suppressed Pacific Ridge is further west which leads to a better chance of future amplification being in the sweet spot.

Following up on this... the angle of this AR plume is definitely from the SW and not directly from the west.

 

sat 11-14.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12Z NAM holds the main front off in the Seattle area until almost noon tomorrow and then pushes it through very quickly... its gone by 4 p.m.     That is a huge improvement in terms of the flooding situation out here.

nam-nest-nw-precip_1hr_inch-7002800.png

nam-nest-nw-precip_1hr_inch-7020800.png

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SEA is at .53 for the day already with the main moisture plume well to the north... and 1.57 for this event so far.  

SEA is now at 6.52 for November which is above normal for the entire month.   And 35.50 inches for the year which 5.54 inches above normal.    2021 is going to end up being another significantly wet year in the Seattle area continuing the theme of the last decade.  

 

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Interestingly... the rain has basically stopped in OLM.    Only .02 for the day down there so far.

OLM is 7.21 inches above normal for the the year... so even wetter than SEA in terms of anomaly for 2021.

We have the complete opposite of drought up here.  

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It’s smokin warm in Smokey Point currently while out on my Sunday morning gas and grocery shopping run.  
Dry and breezy, only .05” so far on the day. 

46EF6D8F-7950-43F4-B882-CCDFE93258EE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s smokin warm in Smokey Point currently while out on my Sunday morning gas and grocery shopping run.  
Dry and breezy, only .05” so far on the day. 

46EF6D8F-7950-43F4-B882-CCDFE93258EE.jpeg

06Z ECMWF says it might be snowing up there in 48 hours.  😀

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-7071200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I can’t remember a torch like this so late in November in terms of warm temps

and duration. Maybe 1999?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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0.01” of rain since midnight, keeping the streak alive. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_T2ma_namer_65.thumb.png.c5f2d5094a38bf9af616e787d2780d3f.png

La... Niña? 🤔

The long range 06z was the exact opposite of the 00z...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can’t remember a torch like this so late in November in terms of warm temps

and duration. Maybe 1999?

1999 was even more impressive up here.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1995 as well.

That makes me feel a little better. 
 

Meanwhile noticing a lot of yellowjackets around this weekend, they seem confused about the time of year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The run to run consistency on the GFS for week two is horrendous to say the least.

Meanwhile...up to 1.50" for this event here now.  Looks like they upped the crest for the Skagit at Mount Vernon to within an eyelash of the all time record height.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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