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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That makes me feel a little better. 
 

Meanwhile noticing a lot of yellowjackets around this weekend, they seem confused about the time of year. 

I'm kind of surprised you're nervous about this.  Torches in La Nina Novembers have a rich history of leading to very good things.  It hasn't been that torchy everywhere anyhow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Woke up to find this odd thing called... No rain falling. It's completely dry with a slight breeze. 0.44 since midnight, 1.32 for the event. 

I think dry is the wrong word.  It's sopping wet out there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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66F and partly cloudly.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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26 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah cause the GFS 16 days out is so believable 

And even if the East does score some major cold in November....so what?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

True. I think my sense of the word "dry" has been warped a bit over the past extremely wet 30+ days. 

I've gotten so warped I'm kind of disappointed the projections for 5 inches on yesterday's runs look they probably won't verify here.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm kind of surprised you're nervous about this.  Torches in La Nina Novembers have a rich history of leading to very good things.  It hasn't been that torchy everywhere anyhow.

+4.7F on the month here so far. That's a torch so is this a regional thing or what? Does the same thing apply about warm Novembers if they are cooler and wetter up there, but a shitshow down this way?

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

+4.7F on the month here so far. That's a torch so is this a regional thing or what? Does the same thing apply about warm Novembers if they are cooler and wetter up there, but a shitshow down this way?

It looks regional today...

C406550E-A690-49FB-B89A-BE310B0833E8.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 z is a lot different in the long range.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've gotten so warped I'm kind of disappointed the projections for 5 inches on yesterday's runs look they probably won't verify here.

Everything is so soaked down here too it’s a good thing for us but really bad for up north. I’d rather not have landslides shutting down schuster parkway and a bunch of other roads in Tacoma like December 2019. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Down here we probably still could end up with close to 3 inches of rain for the event. When the Pineapple Express pushes through to the south I’d imagine there will be several hours of heavy rain still. Even down here today won’t be too dry. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Down here we probably still could end up with close to 3 inches of rain for the event. When the Pineapple Express pushes through to the south I’d imagine there will be several hours of heavy rain still. Even down here today won’t be too dry. 

Considering my area is likely going to end up with about 10 inches of rain in a week... its pretty amazing that the worst we will end up with is just minor flooding on Snoqualmie River.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kind of an interesting aside on warm weather in a La Nina November is this.  January 1909 and January 1950 were the two most extreme -PNA episodes of the 20th century and both were La Nina winters that had major torches in November.

More recently I think we can all remember the gnashing of teeth in November 2008 as well.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks regional today...

C406550E-A690-49FB-B89A-BE310B0833E8.jpeg

That it is.  This will be partially offset by the chiller weather coming up though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of an interesting aside on warm weather in a La Nina November is this.  January 1909 and January 1950 were the two most extreme -PNA episodes of the 20th century and both were La Nina winters that had major torches in November.

More recently I think we can all remember the gnashing of teeth in November 2008 as well.

I don’t think anyones seriously worried about this winter just yet considering it hasn’t even started. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of an interesting aside on warm weather in a La Nina November is this.  January 1909 and January 1950 were the two most extreme -PNA episodes of the 20th century and both were La Nina winters that had major torches in November.

More recently I think we can all remember the gnashing of teeth in November 2008 as well.

2008 was better than average but I'd take a 13-14 or even a 16-17 repeat here. All depends on location, the PNW is a big region (Thanks Madden).

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Down here we probably still could end up with close to 3 inches of rain for the event. When the Pineapple Express pushes through to the south I’d imagine there will be several hours of heavy rain still. Even down here today won’t be too dry. 

Good point.  I think there is a good chance of over performance when the colder air begins to push south.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t think anyones seriously worried about this winter just yet considering it hasn’t even started. 

It just amazes how nervous people get about warmth in November though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It just amazes how nervous people get about warmth in November though.

I wouldn't say nervous. Just bored with the same shitt for months or even years, with a feeling that the rapid warming and drying trend won't ever reverse itself in my life.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Everything is so soaked down here too it’s a good thing for us but really bad for up north. I’d rather not have landslides shutting down schuster parkway and a bunch of other roads in Tacoma like December 2019. 

This comment reminded me of the time that Stadium Bowl basically washed into Commencement Bay. I had to Google to find the year - looks like 1981. Couldn’t find much detail online but definitely something that stuck in my memory. 

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Yeah this’ll cause some problems. It’ll be borderline windy here at times today but tomorrow might get interesting when we get another inch of rain and strong winds…temps should cool significantly too. Pretty active 24-36 hours coming up. 

E35165D6-0167-4AB9-90C9-C610D6DFBA63.jpeg

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  • Windy 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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36 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

+4.7F on the month here so far. That's a torch so is this a regional thing or what? Does the same thing apply about warm Novembers if they are cooler and wetter up there, but a shitshow down this way?

I would think that most years that have AR events focused up here would be pretty torchy in places south.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah this’ll cause some problems. It’ll be borderline windy here at times today but tomorrow might get interesting when we get another inch of rain and strong winds…temps should cool significantly too. Pretty active 24-36 hours coming up. 

E35165D6-0167-4AB9-90C9-C610D6DFBA63.jpeg

Tuesday is going to be pretty nice with NW flow and plenty of sun around the area per the ECMWF.  

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  • Windy 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

This comment reminded me of the time that Stadium Bowl basically washed into Commencement Bay. I had to Google to find the year - looks like 1981. Couldn’t find much detail online but definitely something that stuck in my memory. 

Yeah my mom tells me that story pretty much every year when we get big rainstorms lol. The bowl floods almost every year as it is wonder how it would’ve fared against a direct hit from this event. Even so I’m definitely worried about landslides around here since even down in the south sound we’ve gotten a lot of rain and will probably get atleast another inch before it’s over. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah this’ll cause some problems. It’ll be borderline windy here at times today but tomorrow might get interesting when we get another inch of rain and strong winds…temps should cool significantly too. Pretty active 24-36 hours coming up. 

E35165D6-0167-4AB9-90C9-C610D6DFBA63.jpeg

It's almost dead calm here today.  Just the wrong gradient for wind here.  This isn't really a classic windstorm pattern, but some localized areas could get pretty windy.  I've seen it with these displaced rain shadow situations before.

  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's almost dead calm here today.  Just the wrong gradient for wind here.  This isn't really a classic windstorm pattern, but some localized areas could get pretty windy.  I've seen it with these displaced rain shadow situations before.

It’s fairly breezy here today but nothing too crazy just yet. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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It looks like more moisture is going to be coming around the south end of the Olympics soon.  That will probably get things going south of Seattle again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

 

The 59 in Everett is quite shocking.  I remember when my area was in the rain shadow in November 1990 it got quite windy though.  I was living in Bothell at the time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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What we are going through right now is 1990 to a T.  It has been a frequent CPC analog as further evidence.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It looks like more moisture is going to be coming around the south end of the Olympics soon.  That will probably get things going south of Seattle again.

I am not sure about that... the models have shown the moisture plume slowly tilting more upright during the day.    It will probably continue to drizzle at times, but I don't think there is going to be too much more heavy rain from Seattle southward until tomorrow morning.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure about that... the models have shown the moisture plume slowly tilting more upright during the day.    It will probably continue to drizzle at times, but I don't think there is going to be too much more heavy rain from Seattle southward until tomorrow morning.  

I'll be interested to see what happens.  The Langley Hill radar shows a pretty good increase in moisture going on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As sick as I am of the rain at this point, i'm pretty excited to see what today brings. Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention, but it feels like we haven't really had any crazy precip rates in Bham this fall so far. At least nothing like the last few years. Very thankful I have the next couple days off work. Thoughts and prayers going out to the FS and DNR roads I know and love. 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be interested to see what happens.  The Langley Hill radar shows a pretty good increase in moisture going on.

Its not going to be able to move too much farther to the south... its broken off from the main plume which is way north now up over Vancouver Island.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Total rain for the rest of this event from now through Tuesday morning per the 12Z ECMWF.   

Most of the rain for the Seattle area southward falls late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon with the main front.   Dodged the flooding bullet again here.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-7085600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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