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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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59 minutes ago, mtep said:

Just got some sketchy pics from my parents of their place in Sudden Valley. These were obviously taken earlier, and I'm scared to think of how much worse it'll get overnight. They don't currently live there (being rented until they move back to the states next year). The creek that runs behind their house is fed by tributaries that go up Lookout Mt (2,600+'). I'll throw some pics from 11/7/18 in for reference. Sorry for the absolute potato quality.

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Where in SV is that at?  I used to live in SV, in the condos behind the store.

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Flood forecast continues to worsen for the Skagit. I can't imagine it will actually peak 2' above the record, but it's possible.

20211114_1900_Skagitflooding.png.ab40585c9a262828a8f260aa6b021c6b.png

Also, unless they're seeing something that I'm not, I'm not exactly sure this forecast for the Samish River is correct either. The rate of river increase is still accelerating and it's still dumping rain out there.

20211114_1900_samishRiverForecast.png.a03d23efa5907640059f4565f8ca1afd.png

I think the Skagit could be even worse than shown.  The firehose just continues to worsen up there.  I agree with you on the Samish.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er offers some interest

500h_anom.na.png

Boston getting the works

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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For this area this event has been kind of anti climatic.  It looked like we could get 5 inches total and now it looks like a little over 2 will be it.  Also mostly blocked from the wind here.  I'm certainly looking forward to the mini cold snap though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For this area this event has been kind of anti climatic.  It looked like we could get 5 inches total and now it looks like a little over 2 will be it.  Also mostly blocked from the wind here.  I'm certainly looking forward to the mini cold snap though.

Dodged a bullet so to speak.  Some very heavy drizzle with the wind. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

Dodged a bullet so to speak.  Some very heavy drizzle with the wind. 

We definitely dodged a bullet... its plenty wet but it could have been pretty bad.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not surprising, but the Fraser Valley is getting pounded today too. BC Lower Mainland is cut off from the rest of Canada due to mudslides and flooded roads. 174.5mm (6.8 inches) reported in Hope.

 

It's been a long time since significamt flooding on the lower Fraser (1949, I believe), and it was devastating. I'm not sure people would really know what to expect if it started flooding again, especially as much as that region has exploded in population since then.

 

FWIW, floodwaters in Sumas drain north into the Fraser.

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We definitely dodged a bullet... its plenty wet but it could have been pretty bad.

Seems like you are due.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 11.5 strong jet blasting across the Pacific

300wh.npac.png

Everything is buckled over the continent though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like you are due.

Could be... but these extreme patterns are not that common and we were saved by small shifts twice now.   One to the south and one to the north.     Unfortunately it looks like that second shift has been really bad for people up north. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, North_County said:

Not surprising, but the Fraser Valley is getting pounded today too. BC Lower Mainland is cut off from the rest of Canada due to mudslides and flooded roads. 174.5mm (6.8 inches) reported in Hope.

 

It's been a long time since significamt flooding on the lower Fraser (1949, I believe), and it was devastating. I'm not sure people would really know what to expect if it started flooding again, especially as much as that region has exploded in population since then.

 

FWIW, floodwaters in Sumas drain north into the Fraser.

Weird how these years like 1906, 1949, 1990, etc keep getting referenced in all of this.  Regardless of what ENSO, QBO, or whatever else those years were there was similar observed weather to this year.  We'll soon see if there is anything to it.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like you are due.

We've had a couple of notable rain events besides this one in the past few weeks.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had a couple of notable rain events besides this one in the past few weeks.

I think he meant we are due for major flooding out here... which might be true.    It will obviously happen eventually. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The models show a dominance of surface high pressure over us pretty consistently after tomorrow.  Could finally see a fog episode set up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think he meant we are due for major flooding out here... which might be true.    It will obviously happen eventually. 

I think the flooding up north will pretty much suffice for the whole state for a good long while.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the flooding up north will pretty much suffice for the whole state for a good long while.

Yeah... these patterns are not that common and it comes down to the fine details each time.    So it is a relief when we are spared the worst.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Weird how these years like 1906, 1949, 1990, etc keep getting referenced in all of this.  Regardless of what ENSO, QBO, or whatever else those years were there was similar observed weather to this year.  We'll soon see if there is anything to it.

Actually, I had the year wrong. It was 1948, not 1949.  And it was a spring freshet flood, not a November AR. So, in this case at least, I dont think you can use it to draw any realistic comparisons.

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had a couple of notable rain events besides this one in the past few weeks.

We had 6” in less than 48 hours here... Pretty good... Not the most we’ve seen by any means, but a once every 2-3 year event. It was probably our best rain event since February or March 2017. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, North_County said:

Actually, I had the year wrong. It was 1948, not 1949.  And it was a spring freshet flood, not a November AR. So, in this case at least, I dont think you can use it to draw any realistic comparisons.

No doubt.  The spring 1948 floods were epic and a completely different thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 6” in less than 48 hours here... Pretty good... Not the most we’ve seen by any means, but a once every 2-3 year event. It was probably our best rain event since February or March 2017. 

That's a good one for sure.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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52 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Where in SV is that at?  I used to live in SV, in the condos behind the store.

Just inside of gate 9 backed up to Beaver Creek, beautiful lot with a good amount of sun for SV. Really happy/excited for them to get to move up here. This climate is a solid upgrade for them coming from Texas and Saudi Arabia lol. My dad will definitely spend a good amount of the year worrying about the creek and falling limbs from the old growth gargantuan in the front yard though 😂 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Worth noting that hour 384 on the 00z indicates it MAY be December 1st.  Definitely something to watch over the next couple weeks…

I am going to guess that December will not be as wet as November.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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