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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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I like the GFS at the end.  A lot of buckling over the Pacific.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, mtep said:

Just inside of gate 9 backed up to Beaver Creek, beautiful lot with a good amount of sun for SV. Really happy/excited for them to get to move up here. This climate is a solid upgrade for them coming from Texas and Saudi Arabia lol. My dad will definitely spend a good amount of the year worrying about the creek and falling limbs from the old growth gargantuan in the front yard though 😂 

What is SV?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So far so good on keeping the PV split and disorganized this season.  AO and NAO forecasts continue to show it will remain that way for a while at least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sudden Valley east of Bellingham next to Lake Whatcom.  

My parents looked at properties in Sudden Valley and I remember sun exposure was an issue there... many places were just too dark for them.    They ended up north of the lake in a place with great south and west exposure.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think he meant we are due for major flooding out here... which might be true.    It will obviously happen eventually. 

That is what I meant, and let’s be honest this is more likely to continue to be a theme of this wet season. 1995 had November floods, and it was just the beginning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, mtep said:

Just inside of gate 9 backed up to Beaver Creek, beautiful lot with a good amount of sun for SV. Really happy/excited for them to get to move up here. This climate is a solid upgrade for them coming from Texas and Saudi Arabia lol. My dad will definitely spend a good amount of the year worrying about the creek and falling limbs from the old growth gargantuan in the front yard though 😂 

Thanks.  They may like the Stimson trail close by.  Dark trail deep in the woods with a lot of old growth.  I also found SV often gets more snow than Bellingham due to being away from Bellingham Bay.  I also always enjoyed the drive from town all along the lake.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is what I meant, and let’s be honest this is more likely to continue to be a theme of this wet season. 1995 had November floods, and it was just the beginning. 

Could definitely be true... this might be that type of winter.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

My parents looked at properties in Sudden Valley and I remember sun exposure was an issue there... many places were just too dark for them.    They ended up north of the lake in a place with great south and west exposure.   

Yeah I knew people who moved away from SV because of that.  One of the reasons I bought the condo where I did.  Had good views looking east so I got more sun than most.  Other parts are so surrounded by trees you would never know which way is east or west.

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Not many power outages thankfully, despite the strong winds and powerful gusts today.  Very minimal for the most part, thank goodness.  These are from Snohomish County PUD and Puget Sound Energy.  

The counties with the most outages from the wind are... Stevens County, Yakima County, Kitsap County, and Mason County at the moment. 

Nothing to report but a tiny amount of outages in Multnomah County in Oregon.

Screen Shot 2021-11-14 at 9.27.22 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-11-14 at 9.29.00 PM.png

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could definitely be true... this might be that type of winter.  

We will see. Looks like a very dry last half of November could be on half, at face value places in western Oregon would finish this month around normal to slightly above in terms of precip. We have had persistent wet weather for about a month, but the aggregate has not been anything close to unprecedented. If December is dry, I would expect the pacific to ramp

up in January... but I don’t think December will dry... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is what I meant, and let’s be honest this is more likely to continue to be a theme of this wet season. 1995 had November floods, and it was just the beginning. 

Just looked up 1995... there was 17 days in December with no precip out here so there was at least some decent breaks.   Its been raining on most days out here since the middle of September.    Hopefully we can at least get into a pattern with some meaningful dry breaks... maybe even some of them with snow on the ground.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked up 1995... there was 17 days in December with no precip out here so there was at least some decent breaks.   Its been raining on most days out here since the middle of September.    Hopefully we can at least get into a pattern with some meaningful dry breaks... maybe even some of them with snow on the ground.

We had a little snow right after the big windstorm in December 1995! I remember walking out to the family camper in the snow to take a warm shower since the power was out for a few days. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My parents looked at properties in Sudden Valley and I remember sun exposure was an issue there.

We looked at houses there, and fortunately got warned off about the SV HOA (aka People's Republic of Sudden Valley).

 

Lot's of really nice houses to be had in PRSV for a song, and I don't think we would have been too turned off by the lack of sun exposure, but the HOA on the other hand was a deal breaker.

 

Looks like the rainfall rates have picked up again, up to 2.75"  Assuming the rainfall  keeps up, we should tick over 3" in the next hour or so. 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is what I meant, and let’s be honest this is more likely to continue to be a theme of this wet season. 1995 had November floods, and it was just the beginning. 

You could be right, but there was certainly a great January (for the 1983 to present period) thrown in there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Thanks.  They may like the Stimson trail close by.  Dark trail deep in the woods with a lot of old growth.  I also found SV often gets more snow than Bellingham due to being away from Bellingham Bay.  I also always enjoyed the drive from town all along the lake.

 

That's one of their favorites! I need to explore that park more. I like the Lookout mt trail a little more personally although its dumb steep in parts. Its definitely a solid area for snow, I think they're at about 500'. My mom was actually in town for part of Feb '19, it was an awesome spot to watch the snow fall. I love driving out there/south through Glenhaven and Alger during marginal events. 

20190225_170312.jpg

20190204_143656.jpg

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s been consistently borderline windy today…have had some gusts close to 40mph at times today.

SEA had a gust to 43 today.  I've been really impressed with how windy they have been this season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The pounding for the North Interior continues.  The latest radar is relentless.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

We looked at houses there, and fortunately got warned off about the SV HOA (aka People's Republic of Sudden Valley).

 

Lot's of really nice houses to be had in PRSV for a song, and I don't think we would have been too turned off by the lack of sun exposure, but the HOA on the other hand was a deal breaker.

 

Looks like the rainfall rates have picked up again, up to 2.75"  Assuming the rainfall  keeps up, we should tick over 3" in the next hour or so. 

Yeah I could never do the HOA thing, too many times it turns into a few power trippy people going nuts that your car is not parked straight enough or you haven’t deadheaded your Rhododendron quickly enough, etc. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total rain from now through tomorrow evening per the 00Z ECMWF... eliminating the rain the has already fallen since 4 p.m.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_24hr_inch-7042400.png

Sweet!  So I should only get about .1" more and be done.  I have gotten 1.44" since 4pm, and according to this, I will only be getting about 1.5" from 4pm through tomorrow. 🤣

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Sweet!  So I should only get about .1" more and be done.  I have gotten 1.44" since 4pm, and according to this, I will only be getting about 1.5" from 4pm through tomorrow. 🤣

 

 

That map runs from 10 p.m. today through 10 p.m. tomorrow... so it already eliminates the rain that has fallen since 4 p.m.     It shows the remaining rain for this event starting now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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