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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Given some anomalous rossby wave packet w/ WPAC typhoon remnants involved, in tandem with steep orographic lifting, could it not actually happen?

Maybe not quite to that extent, but I think it could theoretically get much worse than this under the right conditions.

No, the NE Pacific is incapable of producing that much thermal/kinetic energy to drive up PWAT values that much. The record water temps off of our coast are maybe in the low to mid 60s. The GOM easily gets into the mid 80s in a warm year. 

The West Coast could probably support 24 hour precip totals of 15-20" in our most orographically favored areas in an extreme event. We're not going to see 60" of rain from a storm.

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1 minute ago, North_County said:

Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this.1115211104_HDR.thumb.jpg.9eb4ff28312b01d361a52dae5e402358.jpg1115211104a_HDR.thumb.jpg.b5e28b6c2058eabde3854d67c7f25cca.jpg

That’s really scary stuff. Is that your car? 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Noticed that as well…worst winds to come 

Pressure is 997.8 now…going to be a significant rise in pressure behind the cold front wouldn’t be surprised if the winds are stronger than expected. Have some portable batteries ready. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, North_County said:

Was my car.

Lol. Actually, it was toast already, and ive just been putting off getting it scrapped, so yeah. Not particularly worried about that one. I tried to move it last night, and it wouldnt start, so.....

That’s still really sad to see. Hopefully the flooding starts to recede soon. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No, the NE Pacific is incapable of producing that much thermal/kinetic energy to drive up PWAT values that much. The record water temps off of our coast are maybe in the low to mid 60s. The GOM easily gets into the mid 80s in a warm year. 

The West Coast could probably support 24 hour precip totals of 15-20" in our most orographically favored areas in an extreme event. We're not going to see 60" of rain from a storm.

FWIW those GOA/NPAC waters were likely warm enough to make for an exothermic situation during the Holocene thermal maximum, averaged annually.

I’ll bet there were some crazy ARs up there while the Pyramids of Giza were being built.

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8 minutes ago, North_County said:

Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this.1115211104_HDR.thumb.jpg.9eb4ff28312b01d361a52dae5e402358.jpg1115211104a_HDR.thumb.jpg.b5e28b6c2058eabde3854d67c7f25cca.jpg

Bro that sucks. Maybe start moving valuables and non-perishable food items upstairs?

Hoping for the best.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pressure is 997.8 now…going to be a significant rise in pressure behind the cold front wouldn’t be surprised if the winds are stronger than expected. Have some portable batteries ready. 

Yeah the pressure surge can aid vertical momentum transfer. Stay safe!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Bro that sucks. Maybe start moving valuables and non-perishable food items upstairs?

Hoping for the best.

Never can have too much water right Phil?   🙄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2-3 weeks of 2007-08 or 1998-99 style cold NW flow would be the ideal pattern right now.

More ideal than a cross polar flow pattern like November 2010 or December 2008? 🤔

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the pressure surge can aid vertical momentum transfer. Stay safe!

Not much wind in this area yet, but judging by northerly reports we may not be out of the woods quite yet. If I'm to be correct it's the pressure rises guiding the strong gusts, no?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Nightmare scenario unfolding on the EURO. We need snowpack.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nightmare scenario unfolding on the EURO. We need snowpack.

Troll.  

Snowpack needs to be solid by spring.   November is not an issue.     We have other actual nightmare situations to deal with right now that are more urgent.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No, the NE Pacific is incapable of producing that much thermal/kinetic energy to drive up PWAT values that much. The record water temps off of our coast are maybe in the low to mid 60s. The GOM easily gets into the mid 80s in a warm year. 

The West Coast could probably support 24 hour precip totals of 15-20" in our most orographically favored areas in an extreme event. We're not going to see 60" of rain from a storm.

The daily rainfall record for BC is 19.25” on the west side of Vancouver island. Ucluelet Brynnor Mine

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Never can have too much water right Phil?   🙄

Well, the trees are probably happy. Humans maybe less so. Depends where you live, right? 🌊 

My location never floods, minus those brief rapids that carry trash cans down the street. Even 7.5” in < 2 hrs on already-saturated soil didn’t do it.

A few miles away it was ugly, though.

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8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Not much wind in this area yet, but judging by northerly reports we may not be out of the woods quite yet. If I'm to be correct it's the pressure rises guiding the strong gusts, no?

Loud roaring gusts here now at times. Strongest winds likely to be east of I-5 I think. I wonder how windy it may get. 130kt jet support, strong cold front, sharp pressure rises, and a warm air mass.

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

little baileys in your coffee this morning?? Pulling no punches i kinda like it

Just not the time to be talking about "nightmare scenarios" involving something long term like snowpack... given what is happening right now.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

Yeah... its out here now.

Sort of strange since we don't really have any flooding and the wind is not that strong.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just not the time to be talking about "nightmare scenarios" involving something long term like snowpack... given what is happening right now.   👍

A big west coast ridge will not help our long term drought situation. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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