PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think Andrew said he was only like 6” above average for rainfall this fall.  It’s a desperate situation down there in Oregon too

Seriously though, what we need is a cooler/wet regime. I'm not rooting for another AR, just something that can give the mountains appreciable snow. All the rain we have gotten in the past month is fairly meaningless if we have another meager snow pack, quick spring melt, and dry spring. 

[Phil]

Andrew NEEDS zonal flow to stay sane. He’d happily do away with every arctic outbreak if it meant a winter full of screaming jets and flat W/NW flow.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seriously though, what we need is a cooler/wet regime. I'm not rooting for another AR, just something that can give the mountains appreciable snow. All the rain we have gotten in the past month is fairly meaningless if we have another meager snow pack, quick spring melt, and dry spring. 

I really believe the mountain snow will come this winter.  Low to mid elevation snowpack on southern Vancouver island is vital. Our mountains aren’t very high here and we have limited water storage capacity. So I don’t disagree with what you’re saying 

 

Dropped to a low of 30F here this morning. Very frosty

[Skagit Weather]

They're currently evacuating places near downtown Mount Vernon because of a growing "bulge" in the levee that looks like it could cause extreme flooding if it fails.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

We're at 34.40" since September 12th. Looking forward to a period of dry/drizzle, but I won't mind a turn back to wet if it's accompanied by some cold! I want to stop looking at the rain gauge and start looking at the measuring tape!

Todays only gonna be the second dry day this month so today will be nice…as for snow hopefully sometime in December seems pretty unlikely we get any this month but usually November snow doesn’t happen anyways. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I really believe the mountain snow will come this winter.  Low to mid elevation snowpack on southern Vancouver island is vital. Our mountains aren’t very high here and we have limited water storage capacity. So I don’t disagree with what you’re saying 

 

Dropped to a low of 30F here this morning. Very frosty

We don’t really build up that much snowpack in November anyways. It’s La Niña it’s coming. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Todays only gonna be the second dry day this month so today will be nice…as for snow hopefully sometime in December seems pretty unlikely we get any this month but usually November snow doesn’t happen anyways. 

Forgot about the streak... SEA should come in with a 0.00 day today for the first time this month. 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

We're at 34.40" since September 12th. Looking forward to a period of dry/drizzle, but I won't mind a turn back to wet if it's accompanied by some cold! I want to stop looking at the rain gauge and start looking at the measuring tape!

There is absolutely no drought here in any shape or form.    Quite literally the opposite of drought.

But we will need to build up a healthy snowpack by April... which I am almost certain will happen.   But that never happens in November anyways.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I was there. Jim and Brennan were there.  I was  Brian in Bellingham then.

I was there as well under R-Dub! 

[SnowWillarrive]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We don’t really build up that much snowpack in November anyways. It’s La Niña it’s coming. 

Not a big fan of November. December is when I love snow. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was there as well under R-Dub! 

Pretty sure that is where my stupid user name started.    I thought it was a national forum... so my initials and the general area I was located.    Now it seems silly... I am not at SEA.    But its so engrained now.  

[MossMan]

The last burst of precip about an hour ago was quite a nice ice pellet shower. 
.24” on the day, 10.19” for the month, 52.38 for the year. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure that is where my stupid user name started.    I thought it was a national forum... so my initials and the general area I was located.    Now it seems silly... I am not at SEA.    But its so engrained now.  

I remember thinking back then that since the neurotic guy from North Bend claims to be from Seattle, maybe I should go with “DeweyPDX.”

[Deweydog]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The tea leaves for December, at least the first half of the month are not very promising. My hunch is things will start improving the 2nd half of the month. 

It’s November 16th.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Flooding update: parts of Ferndale and Mt Vernon are now under voluntary evacuation this morning.  For Ferndale, the river still has not crested and they are concerned about a part of town south of Main St and west of the river flooding. 

 

For Mt. Vernon, there is a bulge in the dyke system that they are concerned may not hold. 

 

It's sunny out but this isn't over just yet.

 

Currently 45 after a low of 36.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is absolutely no drought here in any shape or form.    Quite literally the opposite of drought.

But we will need to build up a healthy snowpack by April... which I am almost certain will happen.   But that never happens in November anyways.

We're like 30"+ below normal for our last 2 water years and we're still in extreme drought, even with better rain since October, which has really slowed down here of late and we mostly just get warm boredom.

The PNW is a big region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim will like this fact... SLE is now slightly above average in precip for the calendar year, though they will drop back below after today. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim will like this fact... SLE is now slightly above average in precip for the calendar year, though they will drop back below after today. 

Current stats up here for the year:

BLI +4.59

SEA +5.68

OLM +7.50

HQM +10.07

UIL +13.89

2021 has been really wet up here... with one month to go! 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a troughing CONUS leading up to Thanksgiving...

 

[Deweydog]

PDX tried like hell but couldn’t quite pull off that first 30’s of November 2021…

[TT-SEA]

Sunny out here now... and most of the fall color is now gone after the wind yesterday.

 

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny out here now... and most of the fall color is now gone after the wind yesterday.

 

Beautiful day. Hopefully the break in the weather allows those impacted by the AR to start to recover. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been a partly sunny day here. Temp sitting at 40, probably going to end up in the mid-40s, which should set us up nicely for a frosty night. 

[TT-SEA]

Some of the cottonwoods up here are still clinging to a little fall color.   No idea how those leaves survived that wind yesterday.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a troughing CONUS leading up to Thanksgiving...

 

That's not bad at all, likely dry and seasonably cool. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Some of the cottonwoods up here are still clinging to a little fall color.   No idea how those leaves survived that wind yesterday.   

The only trees we have with any leaves are the alders, such a lame tree for fall color, but the most common deciduous tree in our area. Vine maple are pretty common though too and they have great color, but they lost their leaves weeks ago. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The only trees we have with any leaves are the alders, such a lame tree for fall color, but the most common deciduous tree in our area. Vine maple are pretty common though too and they have great color, but they lost their leaves weeks ago. 

Yeah... the alders are also cliinging to some brownish-green leaves here.    Such a pathetic, messy tree.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the alders are also cliinging to some brownish-green leaves here.    Such a pathetic, messy tree.

If there’s uptick in the alder suicide rate I’m going to hold you personally responsible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the alders are also cliinging to some brownish-green leaves here.    Such a pathetic, messy tree.

They grow like weeds and have little commercial value that I am aware of, maybe they are viable for pulp. I have cut quite a few over the years for firewood, they burn hot and fast and can be somewhat useful as kindling, but they don’t even seem great for firewood. Our chimney sweep says they put off a lot of creosote. 

[TacomaWaWx]

47 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Not a big fan of November. December is when I love snow. 

November can be interesting sometimes…but overall it’s not a very interesting month just a steppingstone into winter. 

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a troughing CONUS leading up to Thanksgiving...

 

12Z EPS is fairly similar at that time frame... but ridge is a little farther east.

 

 

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

November can be interesting sometimes…but overall it’s not a very interesting month just a steppingstone into winter. 

I would A November 1985, 1996, 2006, 2010 repeat snow wise! Otherwise I just love the all around active storminess that November typically brings. The last decade has been mostly extremely boring active weather wise. 2014 had a nice little snow/cold event at the end of that November but otherwise it’s been DULLLLLL. 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

15.99” of rain here since September 12th. Not a ton of rain on the models for now but the storm train could get going in the last few days of November and boost those numbers for the fall a bit. 

Our average yearly precipitation total is around 16 inches, which includes rain, melted snow, sleet and hail. That's a lot of rain.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Our average yearly precipitation total is around 16 inches, which includes rain, melted snow, sleet and hail. That's a lot of rain.

We’re at 39.07” this year and we’ve got 6 weeks to go. It varies though just 27.77” in 2013 and 51.60” in 2017. Just need a little less than 3” to be above average for the year (41.94”) which seems pretty likely. It’s been a really wet fall wettest since 2016.

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I would A November 1985, 1996, 2006, 2010 repeat snow wise! Otherwise I just love the all around active storminess that November typically brings. The last decade has been mostly extremely boring active weather wise. 2014 had a nice little snow/cold event at the end of that November but otherwise it’s been DULLLLLL. 

Novembers usually fairly stormy but hasn’t been too exciting recently. Hasn’t snowed in the last 4 years and hasn’t been anything significantly snowy in over a decade. Hasn’t been particularly stormy either…this storm we just had was pretty decent though. We also had one day in November 2018 where we got hit by 3 thunderstorms and a funnel cloud in the same day. Other than that yeah not too exciting. Let’s skip ahead to Dewey’s December to remember. 

[North_County]

Probably the last of my personal updates, because I dont want to blow up the thread, and I know that this group tends to look forward at the next system, which is fine. But I thought this was interesting because someone earlier back (Chewbaca or Rubus maybe?) mentioned a possible rail derailment near the border due to an eroded embankment. Turns out, it was literally right behind our business, which probably explains why the flow pattern was so different than past floods. Our shop isn't visible but sits in the circled area.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, North_County said:

Probably the last of my personal updates, because I dont want to blow up the thread, and I know that this group tends to look forward at the next system, which is fine. But I thought this was interesting because someone earlier back (Chewbaca or Rubus maybe?) mentioned a possible rail derailment near the border due to an eroded embankment. Turns out, it was literally right behind our business, which probably explains why the flow pattern was so different than past floods. Our shop isn't visible but sits in the circled area.

Oh with all that is going on up there please keep posting updates! This was a pretty massive event that deserves a lot of coverage. 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Oh with all that is going on up there please keep posting updates! This was a pretty massive event that deserves a lot of coverage. 

Yes quite the opposite we actually want to know you’re doing alright @North_County pretty major situation going on up there right now keep us updated. 

[Omegaraptor]

Roseburg is the coldest station in lowland westside Oregon right now.

Can’t say that happens very often.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, North_County said:

Probably the last of my personal updates, because I dont want to blow up the thread, and I know that this group tends to look forward at the next system, which is fine. But I thought this was interesting because someone earlier back (Chewbaca or Rubus maybe?) mentioned a possible rail derailment near the border due to an eroded embankment. Turns out, it was literally right behind our business, which probably explains why the flow pattern was so different than past floods. Our shop isn't visible but sits in the circled area.

Keep the updates coming homie.