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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I was about 3 miles too far south in February. I ended up with an inch or two of snow followed by at least an inch of ZR. It was brutal. Meanwhile, areas north of the Clackamas County line in the metro area got much more snow and much less freezing rain. Still damaging elsewhere, but I was in a terrible spot since I was far enough north to remain below freezing, but far enough south to not be influenced enough by the cold air pumping out of the Columbia Gorge. 

Remember driving to Silver Falls in March (or was it April). Nearly every oak tree in north Marion County had damaged or broken limbs.

My area didn't do the best in the metro but certainly didn't do the worst either.

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

You’d love the dolly sods. One of the most dynamic climates in the world that nobody knows about.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolly_Sods_Wilderness

It’s so windy up there all the trees are flagged in one direction, and in some places they can’t grow at all. Regularly see gusts in the 70-100mph range in the winter. And frequent severe weather in the summer.

Crazy-- didn't even know of this place's existence let alone its climate. Really cool location, and really gorgeous as well.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Columbia Gorge was the reason you were below freezing.

Areas more influenced by the east gorge wind were able to hold off the warm tongue of air overhead longer. Locations including West Linn, Tualatin, Tigard, Wilsonville, Lake Oswego, Oregon City were in the wrong spot. Further south had the cold air scoured out quicker and had some plain old rain. To the north had more snow. 

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Areas more influenced by the east gorge wind were able to hold off the warm tongue of air overhead longer. Areas including West Linn, Tualatin, Tigard, Wilsonville, Lake Oswego, Oregon City, were in the wrong spot. Further south had the cold air scoured out quicker and had some plain old rain. To the north had more snow. 

The gorge has very little if any influence on the mid levels when it comes to moderate/strong warm advection events like 2/12/21.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Areas more influenced by the east gorge wind were able to hold off the warm tongue of air overhead longer. Areas including West Linn, Tualatin, Tigard, Wilsonville, Lake Oswego, Oregon City were in the wrong spot. Further south had the cold air scoured out quicker and had some plain old rain. To the north had more snow. 

We haven't had a sub-freezing high in almost half a decade. At least you got one of those. You also haven't had 25 double-digit positive temp departures since your last double-digit negative temp departure, which is where we're at. We've also only had 5 total days with a high temp below 40F in the last 2 years. And our most recent temp down into the mid-20s was back in October of 2020.

It could be worse.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Hail or graupel at my house.

IMG_20211116_155645479.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Gorgeous rainbow right over the school at dismissal today.

D3039A9D-7407-4D48-BF44-DDA601A2F912.jpeg

Just noticed a rainbow on the space needle cam... same little cell moving SE.  

 

 

Screenshot_20211116-162433_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was watching that cell on the radar and hoping it missed SEA... would not want to ruin the 0.00 day!  

Of course tomorrow is a lock for another one.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interesting, my current area had more snow than you in both winters. I had 15.5" last winter and about 14" in 2013-14.

Pretty much all of our snow last winter fell between January 20th and February 3rd. We were in the freezing rain zone during the big event, but being at the very top of the cooler column we had significantly less ice than the valley, so the damage wasn’t to bad. Didn’t keep us from being without power for nearly two weeks though. 
 

But anyways, we just didn’t have very many cool maritime air masses, or borderline elevation dependent snow situations last winter. Obviously the February event was a snow stopper, but February and March 2020 had a lot more in the way of cool troughing.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SEA is already down to 44... going to be a cold night.    First hard freeze seems likely here... its mostly clear and calm right now.   Although the ECMWF does show the east wind picking up overnight.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I heard the flooding in the town of Merritt, 7000 people evacuated, was so extreme that it likely exceeded a 200 year flood projection. 

 I actually visited that town once.  Spent the night and everything.  Nice place.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Totally clear and already down to 42.  Might get a two for the price of one freeze tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a classic question for this group. When it is snowing, do you go outside and take a walk, soaking in the moment, or do you stare wistfully at the radar, knowing the back edge is only 45 minutes away?

Both.  Sometimes I stop watching the radar and let myself be surprised in certain situations.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 after a high of 43.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

36 after a high of 43.

Finally a real chill for your area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

It got close to be fair

20211116_153734.jpg

No... that is a straight up failure for the ECMWF.    This is what the 00Z ECMWF showed yesterday evening for last night and this morning.    There was no accumulating snow in the lowlands anywhere.     The ECMWF has been surprisingly bad so far this fall... worse than I have ever seen.   Even the Kuchera map showed accumulating snow in the same area... just less.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-snow_24hr-7107200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I was about 3 miles too far south in February. I ended up with an inch or two of snow followed by at least an inch of ZR. It was brutal. Meanwhile, areas north of the Clackamas County line in the metro area got much more snow and much less freezing rain. Still damaging elsewhere, but I was in a terrible spot since I was far enough north to remain below freezing, but far enough south to not be influenced enough by the cold air pumping out of the Columbia Gorge. 

That's why I love that my job is at the mouth of the gorge. Good chances of getting paid to stay home. 

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Finally got my NWS Spotter ID after a few weeks. My CoCoRahs gauge is in IL so I wouldn't mind a few days of no precip for now.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a classic question for this group. When it is snowing, do you go outside and take a walk, soaking in the moment, or do you stare wistfully at the radar, knowing the back edge is only 45 minutes away?

Once it begins I don’t want to see the radar and try to just enjoy it.  Of course I chime in here and scroll quickly past any radar post! Sometimes hard to do :( 

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12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Rex block mentioned the last couple days via nws. 

Does this crap ever end here?

The overall pattern has been very active since the middle of September... blocks do happen at times when the pattern relaxes.   We can't have a raging jet stream all the time... its not how the world works.    You live on the desert side of the Cascade crest so you might not notice the difference between a very active pattern and a blocking pattern.    But in western WA the difference can be night and day.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a classic question for this group. When it is snowing, do you go outside and take a walk, soaking in the moment, or do you stare wistfully at the radar, knowing the back edge is only 45 minutes away?

To me forecasting snow is just as fun as experiencing it, so it’s a balance of both. I try not to get so sucked into the radar that I miss out on losing myself in the snow, but I can’t relax and enjoy it without having a pretty good idea how long it will keep up and how much will fall.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

To me forecasting snow is just as fun as experiencing it, so it’s a balance of both. I try not to get so sucked into the radar that I miss out on losing myself in the snow, but I can’t relax and enjoy it without having a pretty good idea how long it will keep up and how much will fall.

Yeah... you are definitely a radar hawk along with me.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

No... that is a straight up failure for the ECMWF.    This is what the 00Z ECMWF showed yesterday evening for last night and this morning.    There was no accumulating snow in the lowlands anywhere.     The ECMWF has been surprisingly bad so far this fall... worse than I have ever seen.   Even the Kuchera map showed accumulating snow in the same area... just less.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-snow_24hr-7107200.png

Yeah I even drove up past my neighbors on the hill and went to the highest point which is just over 800ft, it was almost pure snow falling but zero accumulation. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

To me forecasting snow is just as fun as experiencing it, so it’s a balance of both. I try not to get so sucked into the radar that I miss out on losing myself in the snow, but I can’t relax and enjoy it without having a pretty good idea how long it will keep up and how much will fall.

My absolute favorite thing is when the precip looks like it's going to run out, but it starts to backfill out of nowhere.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I normally don’t root for an episode of ridging, but I am now rooting for an episode of ridging.

It will be a chance to get some chilly weather too.  Ridging in a La Nina November is fine....especially after the soaking we've been through.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The overall pattern has been very active since the middle of September... blocks do happen at times when the pattern relaxes.   We can't have a raging jet stream all the time... its not how the world works.    You live on the desert side of the Cascade crest so you might not notice the difference between a very active pattern and a blocking pattern.    But in western WA the difference can be night and day.  

You act like I have no idea.  I lived 40+ plus years on that side of the mountains.  13+ of them were in Western WA.

Just seems like the Rex block/ridging patterns set up way too often these days in Dec/Jan....and I could be wrong.

Probably just my yearning for a good "middle of the winter" pattern to finally set up.  Screw Turkey Day action......too early, even over here.  

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