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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

A solid 1" for me.

Yeah... PDX should be close to 6 inches of rain for November by the 19th.   Not everything is completely missing PDX.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Well, root all you want, but it doesn't work that way. It's a one way street and it heads north.

18z GFS says... north she goes. Game over.

Happiness in life is infants drowning in swollen holding ponds.

I should write greeting cards.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This event is just 24 hours away and the ECMWF still shows over an inch at PDX.   Somehow it still does rain at PDX given that station is over 2 inches above normal half way through the month.    Do you need more than 200% of normal precip to be satisfied?   If so... you won't be satisfied too often just from a statistical standpoint.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7366400.png

Wait until the 18z and 00z runs. That's old news.

I don't have a specific target to be statistically satisfied. Maybe when we have a yearly surplus of +10'' or greater for two consecutive years. 

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I'm not going to wring my hands over where some weak dying system goes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Wait until the 18z and 00z runs. That's old news.

I don't have a specific target to be statistically satisfied. Maybe when we have a yearly surplus of +10'' or greater for two consecutive years. 

The ECMWF at 24 hours out is not going to change much.     

And you are probably going to have a long wait for +10 inches for two consecutive years.    That is a real stretch statistically.  

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Just now, Deweydog said:

If it might fall as snow I would. 

That's a good point. If this was mid-December this system might actually be fairly interesting. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF at 24 hours out is not going to change much.     

And you are probably going to have a long wait for +10 inches for two consecutive years.    That is a real stretch statistically.  

The Euro has been playing follow the leader in regards to QPF lately. It's the last to flip. It might take until 00z run tonight or even the 12z run tomorrow, but it will come around. You'll see.

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Fun little fact... SEA is +5.86 for 2021 right now and is almost 41 inches above normal for rainfall since 2010.    Wet!  

But... SEA was only +10 inches for the year once in the last decade.     Two years in a row is really difficult.

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5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The Euro has been playing follow the leader in regards to QPF lately. It's the last to flip. It might take until 00z run tonight or even the 12z run tomorrow, but it will come around. You'll see.

It will be wetter than today!  Enjoy.  

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fun little fact... SEA is +5.86 for 2021 right now and is almost 41 inches above normal for rainfall since 2010.    Wet!  

But... SEA was only +10 inches for the year once in the last decade.     Two years in a row is really difficult.

Fun fact Tim is going to LOVE. Since 1892, Salem has never had back to back calendar years that were 10"+ in precip. The only two times they came very close were 2016& 2017 and 1995&1996. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact Tim is going to LOVE. Since 1892, Salem has never had back to back calendar years that were 10"+ in precip. The only two times they came very close were 2016& 2017 and 1995&1996. 

Josh might never be satisfied... he set the bar too high. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fun little fact... SEA is +5.86 for 2021 right now and is almost 41 inches above normal for rainfall since 2010.    Wet!  

But... SEA was only +10 inches for the year once in the last decade.     Two years in a row is really difficult.

I didn't say it was easy. We came close to back to back -10'' departures in 2018 and 2019. 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Josh might never be satisfied... he set the bar too high. 

Water year 95-96 and 96-97 however did clear the benchmark. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I didn't say it was easy. We came close to back to back -10'' departures in 2018 and 2019. 

Bruh, we have had double-digit negative precip departures here over both of the last 2 water years. Our new normal is warmer and drier. I'm finding more and more that waiting for anything interesting to come along is something to be truly cherished like 2-25-19.

D61C10EF-C9E3-4754-B4F2-6BCED68F7F98.jpeg
 

BA83B60B-4E95-4356-848F-514B8DE4376B.jpeg

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  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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15 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I didn't say it was easy. We came close to back to back -10'' departures in 2018 and 2019. 

Well... you do prefer that it rains every single day and Portland averages 209 days with no rain each year.    Ironically... Seattle averages a little more with 216 dry days each year.  

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18z still looks pretty active after Thanksgiving. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Even in the wettest month of the year... Seattle averages 12 dry days in November.     

And out here where the rainfall average is more than double that of Seattle... we average 11 dry days in November.    We bottom out in December and January with an average of 10 dry days each of those months.  

Apparently Hilo Hawaii has the highest annual number of days with rain for any major station in the United States with 272.    But even there that still leaves you with 93 dry days each year.    :)

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's funny, now they are talking about a huge snowfall in "January 1981," the lady says her son was born in June 1980 and it was after that, so they must be talking about December 1980, that was a major event up here, but January 81' was a total torch. 

Interesting, it must have been 1989, the lady names the kids in the picture, and I know one of them is the same age as me, and he looks about 5 in the picture... That few hundred feet difference between Drakes Crossing and South Falls must have made the difference that time. 

They could have meant January 1982.  There was a nice event that month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 12z GFS was pretty darn good to say the least.  Some more good news is the GFS extended ensemble and the ECMWF weeklies both show the EPO staying reasonably low, and both forecast -PNA dominating as we get into December.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even in the wettest month of the year... Seattle averages 12 dry days in November.     

And out here where the rainfall average is more than double that of Seattle... we average 11 dry days in November.    We bottom out in December and January with an average of 10 dry days each of those months.  

Apparently Hilo Hawaii has the highest annual number of days with rain for any major station in the United States with 272.    But even there that still leaves you with 93 dry days each year.    :)

Close to my desire for 300+ days, but unfortunately, I want a temperate climate as opposed to a tropical one. I also don't really want to live on a rock in the middle of the ocean.

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9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Close to my desire for 300+ days, but unfortunately, I want a temperate climate as opposed to a tropical one. I also don't really want to live on a rock in the middle of the ocean.

I was trying to find places in SE Alaska that were close to Hilo.   About the highest is Sitka which average 230 days with rain and 135 dry days per year.

Vampire-land in Forks WA averages 203 days with rain and 162 dry days per year.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was trying to find places in SE Alaska that were close to Hilo.   About the highest is Sitka which average 230 days with rain and 135 dry days per year.

Vampire-land in Forks WA averages 203 days with rain and 162 dry days per year.

SE Alaska is most likely the closest to my ideal climate. You wouldn't love it, would you?

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27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z GFS was pretty darn good to say the least.  Some more good news is the GFS extended ensemble and the ECMWF weeklies both show the EPO staying reasonably low, and both forecast -PNA dominating as we get into December.

Hell ya!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

00z GFS in 4 hours
00z ECMWF in 6 hours 10 minutes

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

SE Alaska is most likely the closest to my ideal climate. You wouldn't love it, would you?

I would definitely not love it there... but to each their own.   I would be very depressed in SE Alaska because they lack nice summer weather.   Its often cloudy and drizzly and rarely gets out of the 60s even in July.  I wouldn't last long.   I don't mind much that is thrown at us here from November - March... as long as we have a lots of sunny days in the warm season.   

 

'

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51/31 at SEA today... and will end up being the second 0.00 day in a row.     Might get to repeat that on Saturday and Sunday but don't see many opportunities after this weekend.

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would definitely not love it there... but to each their own.   I would be very depressed in SE Alaska because they lack nice summer weather.   Its often cloudy and drizzly and rarely gets out of the 60s even in July.  I wouldn't last long.   I don't mind much that is thrown at us here from November - March... as long as we have a lots of sunny days in the warm season.   

 

'

Man, I like the sound of that summer.

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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would definitely not love it there... but to each their own.   I would be very depressed in SE Alaska because they lack nice summer weather.   Its often cloudy and drizzly and rarely gets out of the 60s even in July.  I wouldn't last long.   I don't mind much that is thrown at us here from November - March... as long as we have a lots of sunny days in the warm season.   

 

'

Ditto.

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That east wind has a bit of a snap to it today.  Currently 46 with a dp of 25.

I ended up with a 49/29 range today.

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  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

SE Alaska is most likely the closest to my ideal climate. You wouldn't love it, would you?

It wouldn't meet your temperature requirements (which I totally can't comprehend) though.  It gets surprisingly cold even right on the coast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Tropical rain is beautiful. Nothing like 75 and rainy. 

I actually hate warm rain with a passion.  The air just feels gross after it's over.  I am forever hooked on our dry / low humidity summers.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It wouldn't meet your temperature requirements (which I totally can't comprehend) though.  It gets surprisingly cold even right on the coast.

I understand that people have different preferences.   But you can't understand how someone would not like cold?    You realize that there is a huge segment of the population that does not like cold?  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A dp of 19 at SEA.  This air mass must have gotten a bit more continental than I thought.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I understand that people have different preferences.   But you can't understand how someone would not like cold?    You realize that there is a huge segment of the population that does not like cold?  😀

I like snow. If it’s not gonna snow, sunny and 75 works for me. 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS. Not bad. I spy the WPAC jet retracting/holding back as well. C'MON!!!!

floop-gefs-2021111718.500h_anom_na.gif

floop-gefs-2021111718.250wh.npac(1).gif

That end is very promising.  It kind of dovetails with the weeklies also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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