PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

You all will be shocked, but I think my ideal climate would be Vancouver, Victoria, and convergence zone around Sno-King line. I grew up in a warm (or cool) summer  Csb Mediterranean climate when the weather was always 70F and sunny in the summer and 45-55F in Winter. Rain only from late Oct-April. Very boring but with fog.  Even my college town in a Csa climate at least had frosts and t-storms on occasion. The overcast weather of Seattle made me feel at home. I really like Oceanic climates though ones less extreme than found directly on the coast such as Cannon Beach. Oceanic climates are cool enough that snow does happen and you do get at least three seasons with lesser fire risk in an average year. Oceanic climates are also better than my current semi-arid climate which is brutal when you get those 20 degree days that make your hands dry out.

 

I simply don't understand why Oceanic climates don't get more love from the general population. I love them. I understand it here because the marine influence makes snow less frequent, but you get a great mix of everything. A Minnesota winter is too cold and snowy for me, but my old climate bores me too much. I would hate a humid subtropical climate the most of all though. Seattle in a normal year gets just enough rain to be interesting but not too much. Note I said normally. You all have too much at the moment.

Yeah... I wouldn't like to live anywhere east of here in the winter.   Too harsh for my liking.   I do appreciate the more gentle nature of winter here even with all the rain.  Its also much greener here in the dead winter.    And normal summer weather is ideal.   

Seattle does get a bad rap considering its considerably sunnier than most central and northern European cities.    April-June are the hardest months for me here in most years when it keeps raining and does not warm up like other places.   June is my least favorite month in terms of expectation vs reality (2015 and 2021 notwithstanding).  

 

[GHweatherChris]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This climate is ok some years.  Once in a while we get into a cold regime which can bring decently snowy winters and lots of active weather.  On the other hand we can get a run of 2 or 3 years that is just insufferably boring.

Wtf man?

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

If this was a month later the chances are pretty good we would be looking at snow tomorrow given the track of the low and the precip intensity being shown.  As it is tomorrow certainly looks like a chilly day.

This exact same air mass a month down the road would not increase the chances of snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I wouldn't like to live anywhere east of here in the winter.   Too harsh for my liking.   I do appreciate the more gentle nature of winter here even with all the rain.  Its also much greener here in the dead winter.    And normal summer weather is ideal.   

Seattle does get a bad rap considering its considerably sunnier than most central and northern European cities.    April-June are the hardest months for me here in most years when it keeps raining and does not warm up like other places.   June is my least favorite month in terms of expectation vs reality (2015 and 2021 notwithstanding).  

 

Whenever we watch Glory Road, we laugh at the scene in Seattle where of course it is raining. I think the PNW does that to keep the Californians out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF at 24 hours out is not going to change much.     

And you are probably going to have a long wait for +10 inches for two consecutive years.    That is a real stretch statistically.  

Peep the 00z Euro. I told you guys. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Peep the 00z Euro. I told you guys. 

I was just going to post that... you got it right this time!   But it won't always trend north that much in the home stretch.   It's unfortunate because we sure as hell don't need it.  

[smerfylicious]

East winds really kicking up through Stevens Pass tonight. 38 degrees in Monroe, 45 at home. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM(Canadian)

 

Alaska

 

 

Vortex

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Wtf man?

I have no idea how that image ended up in my post.  I didn't do anything to make that happen.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Alaska

 

 

Vortex

I'm not worried about it.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea how that image ended up in my post.  I didn't do anything to make that happen.

I'm everywhere man hahahaha!!

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This exact same air mass a month down the road would not increase the chances of snow.

Just statistically the same situation would be colder a month from now.  Any given pattern will have more cold air to work with.

At any rate I'm kind of surprised how cold the east wind is over the interior tonight.  Places near the foothills are in the upper 30 with dps in the upper teens.

[Dan the Weatherman]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just going to post that... you got it right this time!   But it won't always trend north that much in the home stretch.   It's unfortunate because we sure as hell don't need it.  

I wish you could send some of that rain to California!!

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I wouldn't like to live anywhere east of here in the winter.   Too harsh for my liking.   I do appreciate the more gentle nature of winter here even with all the rain.  Its also much greener here in the dead winter.    And normal summer weather is ideal.   

Seattle does get a bad rap considering its considerably sunnier than most central and northern European cities.    April-June are the hardest months for me here in most years when it keeps raining and does not warm up like other places.   June is my least favorite month in terms of expectation vs reality (2015 and 2021 notwithstanding).  

 

I’m legitimately surprised you dislike June considering it the longest days of the year occur that month.

June is my favorite summer month. Heat/humidity isn’t terrible yet, and I enjoy the long days.

August sucks balls though.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just statistically the same situation would be colder a month from now.  Any given pattern will have more cold air to work with.

At any rate I'm kind of surprised how cold the east wind is over the interior tonight.  Places near the foothills are in the upper 30 with dps in the upper teens.

Would be even colder without the wind.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m legitimately surprised you dislike June considering it the longest days of the year occur that month.

June is my favorite summer month too. Heat/humidity isn’t terrible yet, and I enjoy the long days.

August sucks balls though.

We have discussed this many times.   That is the problem... I want to love June and soak up the long daylight but too often it's dark and cloudy and cool here.   Its the worst month for me in most years in terms expectation vs reality.  And the month we are most likely to escape east for sun.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just statistically the same situation would be colder a month from now.  Any given pattern will have more cold air to work with.

At any rate I'm kind of surprised how cold the east wind is over the interior tonight.  Places near the foothills are in the upper 30 with dps in the upper teens.

I disagree, this exact same global pattern a month from now would not deviate much, if any at all in regards to our temps/weather.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m legitimately surprised you dislike June considering it the longest days of the year occur that month.

June is my favorite summer month. Heat/humidity isn’t terrible yet, and I enjoy the long days.

August sucks balls though.

June can be quite gloomy here though.  I agree with Tim that spring sucks here.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We have discussed this many times.   That is the problem... I want to love June and soak up the long daylight but too often it's dark and cloudy and cool here.   Its the worst month for me in most years in terms expectation vs reality.  And the month we are most likely to escape east for sun.

The days are lit longer though, no matter how you slice it.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I disagree, this exact same global pattern a month from now would not deviate much, if any at all in regards to our temps/weather.

The cold air that swept in behind that cold front on Monday would have been substantially colder.  No way to prove it, but there is simply much more cold air to draw from the north a month from now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38F and pleasant out there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Exhausted can't keep awake. Have a good night all.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5

One thing every run shows a lot of blocking features.  Just a matter of time before that all comes together for us.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The cold air that swept in behind that cold front on Monday would have been substantially colder.  No way to prove it, but there is simply much more cold air draw from the north a month from now.

So it would be a different air mass then?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The days are lit longer though, no matter how you slice it.

Yep.  And my desire for it to be sunny is higher in June too.  Nature just doesn't play along so well in most years.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The cold air that swept in behind that cold front on Monday would have been substantially colder.  No way to prove it, but there is simply much more cold air draw from the north a month from now.

Exactly, you cannot prove there would be more cold air.  If we paused the air mass here and to the northern regions that is occurring right now and placed it a month from now, there would be no difference. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 Exhausted can't keep awake. Have a good night all.

1933-34

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Exactly, you cannot prove there would be more cold air.  If we paused the air mass here and to the northern regions that is occurring right now and placed it a month from now, there would be no difference. 

So if we took the air mass from June and dropped it in today, would we still be getting to 110 degrees?  I think what Jim really meant would be the same pattern in a month could produce snow.

[snow_wizard]

That precip sure seems overdone tomorrow night on the ECMWF.  We will see.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So if we took the air mass from June and dropped it in today, would we still be getting to 110 degrees?  I think what Jim really meant would be the same pattern in a month could produce snow.

The same global pattern?  It would be close, but it would just be darker sooner.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Exactly, you cannot prove there would be more cold air.  If we paused the air mass here and to the northern regions that is occurring right now and placed it a month from now, there would be no difference. 

Why?  Everywhere in the northern hemisphere is colder a month from now on average than it is now.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Why?  Everywhere in the northern hemisphere is colder a month from now on average than it is now.

Statistically. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So if we took the air mass from June and dropped it in today, would we still be getting to 110 degrees?  I think what Jim really meant would be the same pattern in a month could produce snow.

He's being incredibly obtuse for some reason.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So it would be a different air mass then?

I guess.  The numbers would have been lower on everything...heights, 850s, thicknesses, etc.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess.  The numbers would have been lower on everything...heights, 850s, thicknesses, etc.

How do you know that?