snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 The models are finally showing the MJO might wake up and end up in octant 7 next month. Statistically the best spot for cold here. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I forgot all about the ECMWF weeklies yesterday and they are pretty good. The mean is decent and the control was quite cold and snowy during part of December. In a more generalized way of looking at it the teleconnection forecasts have the PNA and EPO both minus for a good period of time on yesterday's run. For the first time in memory, the EPS weeklies have a snowy December here. Hasn’t happened since 2010. Long overdue but I’m sure it’ll fail somehow. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Phil said: For the first time in memory, the EPS weeklies have a snowy December here. Hasn’t happened since 2010. Long overdue but I’m sure it’ll fail somehow. It would be interesting if you get December back and we get January back this winter. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Rather interestingly the ECMWF shows much of King County being one of the coldest places in the Western Lowlands tomorrow night. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 The aurora a few weeks ago, and the lunar eclipse last night...a big middle finger again from Mother Nature as it's almost perfectly clear here right now... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 It really rained a lot up here this morning. I left for work around 8a and according to radar it continued to rain for several more hours. Ended up with 0.97” today after nearly half an inch yesterday evening. Surpassed the 12” mark on the month now. We have a decent shot at 15” this month which is generally what I consider an impressively wet month here. Amazing how much more rain we got with this than SLE. Often we have the biggest differential with these weaker systems as the valley gets shadowed a little more and they hang up along the west slopes of the Cascades. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: This isn't like you... It’s not. I am usually much more pessimistic, and who knows we could end up with a hideously lame winter regardless. But things seem to be progressing pretty well... it’s really cold up north right now too, so there is some fairly cold air to work with on this side of the pole. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Days are short and it's almost the 25th (Thanksgiving, that is). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: The aurora a few weeks ago, and the lunar eclipse last week...a big middle finger again from Mother Nature as it's almost perfectly clear here right now... Lunar eclipse was last night, not last week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 20, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: December will be decent to good. January is when the shoe really drops. THIS IS THE YEAR. Probably the kiss of death, but here is the CVS V2 for December, average of the last 12 forecasts (3 days). 3 5 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Analogs usually make me yawn. Pete Parsons lives by them. This should tell you all you need to know. I would rather just wait and see and GOLU like I never have before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said: Yeah, I've seen 47F snow in Nevada near Reno before. Now, that was based on the car thermometer, but I don't think it was much colder than 45F. I saw it rain in Portland at 33 degrees for 4 months before. What's your point? LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Gloomy dark day it was 46/41 currently 43* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I saw it rain in Portland at 33 degrees for 4 months before. What's your point? LOL 33 degrees? Hahahahaha, I wish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Probably the kiss of death, but here is the CVS V2 for December, average of the last 12 forecasts (3 days). Nice for a 12 run average. The models are certainly seeing something. We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again. Not one exception in over a century on that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Gloomy dark day it was 46/41 currently 43* It has actually managed to clear out here for now at least. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Probably the kiss of death, but here is the CVS V2 for December, average of the last 12 forecasts (3 days). Just now, snow_wizard said: Nice for a 12 run average. The models are certainly seeing something. We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again. Not one exception in over a century on that. What pray tell would those years be? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What pray tell would those years be? 1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006 Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century. Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though. Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Analogs usually make me yawn. Pete Parsons lives by them. This should tell you all you need to know. I would rather just wait and see and GOLU like I never have before. Analogs are just one of many tools in the box for long range forecasting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Days are short and it's almost the 25th (Thanksgiving, that is). If you haven't seen how short the days are up here this time of year you should visit sometime. It can be VERY dark if we are in a gloomy pattern. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 18 years ago right now there was SNOW on the ground (melting). 1 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Analogs are just one of many tools in the box for long range forecasting. Most of us know this, but we have 4 or 5 good ones spanned out 100 years. They hold no water though if you really look at the overall picture. Mark knows this as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006 Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century. Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though. Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one. Pretty nice group Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Most of us know this, but we have 4 or 5 good ones spanned out 100 years. They hold no water though if you really look at the overall picture. Mark knows this as well. We’ve had more good ones in the past 100 years than you would think... they were just all before about 1980... lol 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006 Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century. Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though. Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one. 2006/2007 was decent in Oregon. I was still living there at the time. It was the winter I joined this forum. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Nice for a 12 run average. The models are certainly seeing something. We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again. Not one exception in over a century on that. Woah, pardon me for being late to the game here but please divulge on the Skagit river flood connection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 4 Trough over the entire West Coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 I don’t remember when I joined the forum. I know I was on during December 2008. I feel like I joined sometime when I was in college in Oklahoma or at least started lurking in November 2006. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I don’t remember when I joined the forum. I know I was on during December 2008. I feel like I joined sometime when I was in college in Oklahoma or at least started lurking in November 2006. You can find it in your profile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Day 9'er 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z GFS really ain't too shabby in the short term for those of us who don't have webbed feet. It's dry through Monday evening, a quick front moves through then it's dry again till Thursday morning by which point only a half inch of rain has fallen. Last week that would fall in just one morning. Nice change of pace. Next weekend is looking pretty wet but I'll take the dryness in the short term. A bit of time to wring out and for those up north to recover. Yeah... that is pretty much how I look at the models until something cold and/or snowy shows up. Just scouring for dry periods or favorable timing with rain at night and dry during the day. Rain doesn't interest me and its nice to be outside when its dry. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 20, 2021 Report Share Posted November 20, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er Lots of red 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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