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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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The models are finally showing the MJO might wake up and end up in octant 7 next month.  Statistically the best spot for cold here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I forgot all about the ECMWF weeklies yesterday and they are pretty good.  The mean is decent and the control was quite cold and snowy during part of December.  In a more generalized way of looking at it the teleconnection forecasts have the PNA and EPO both minus for a good period of time on yesterday's run.

For the first time in memory, the EPS weeklies have a snowy December here.

Hasn’t happened since 2010. Long overdue but I’m sure it’ll fail somehow.

  • Snow 3
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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

For the first time in memory, the EPS weeklies have a snowy December here.

Hasn’t happened since 2010. Long overdue but I’m sure it’ll fail somehow.

It would be interesting if you get December back and we get January back this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Rather interestingly the ECMWF shows much of King County being one of the coldest places in the Western Lowlands tomorrow night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It really rained a lot up here this morning. I left for work around 8a and according to radar it continued to rain for several more hours. Ended up with 0.97” today after nearly half an inch yesterday evening. Surpassed the 12” mark on the month now. We have a decent shot at 15” this month which is generally what I consider an impressively wet month here. Amazing how much more rain we got with this than SLE. Often we have the biggest differential with these weaker systems as the valley gets shadowed a little more and they hang up along the west slopes of the Cascades. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This isn't like you...

It’s not. I am usually much more pessimistic, and who knows we could end up with a hideously lame winter regardless. But things seem to be progressing pretty well... it’s really cold up north right now too, so there is some fairly cold air to work with on this side of the pole. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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28 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Probably the kiss of death, but here is the CVS V2 for December, average of the last 12 forecasts (3 days).

image.thumb.png.971e48ee18eb88ce3276f05ab2b4a98a.png

Nice for a 12 run average.  The models are certainly seeing something.  We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again.  Not one exception in over a century on that.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Gloomy dark day it was 

46/41 currently 43*

 

It has actually managed to clear out here for now at least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Probably the kiss of death, but here is the CVS V2 for December, average of the last 12 forecasts (3 days).

image.thumb.png.971e48ee18eb88ce3276f05ab2b4a98a.png

 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice for a 12 run average.  The models are certainly seeing something.  We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again.  Not one exception in over a century on that.

What pray tell would those years be?

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

What pray tell would those years be?

1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006

Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century.  Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though.  Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Analogs usually make me yawn.  Pete Parsons lives by them.

This should tell you all you need to know.  I would rather just wait and see and GOLU like I never have before.

Analogs are just one of many tools in the box for long range forecasting.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Days are short and it's almost the 25th (Thanksgiving, that is).

If you haven't seen how short the days are up here this time of year you should visit sometime.  It can be VERY dark if we are in a gloomy pattern.

  • Like 3
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006

Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century.  Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though.  Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one.

Pretty nice group

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30 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Most of us know this, but we have 4 or 5 good ones spanned out 100 years.  They hold no water though if you really look at the overall picture.  Mark knows this as well.

We’ve had more good ones in the past 100 years than you would think... they were just all before about 1980... lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1921, 1949, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006

Those are the top autumn floods on that river in the past century.  Not sure if 2006-07 was as good down there as it was up here though.  Another interesting thing about that group of years is January was the big month on all but one.

2006/2007 was decent in Oregon. I was still living there at the time. It was the winter I joined this forum. :wub:

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice for a 12 run average.  The models are certainly seeing something.  We will soon see if the Skagit River flood rule holds true once again.  Not one exception in over a century on that.

Woah, pardon me for being late to the game here but please divulge on the Skagit river flood connection. 

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I don’t remember when I joined the forum. I know I was on during December 2008. I feel like I joined sometime when I was in college in Oklahoma or at least started lurking in November 2006.

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS really ain't too shabby in the short term for those of us who don't have webbed feet.

It's dry through Monday evening, a quick front moves through then it's dry again till Thursday morning by which point only a half inch of rain has fallen. Last week that would fall in just one morning. Nice change of pace.

Next weekend is looking pretty wet but I'll take the dryness in the short term. A bit of time to wring out and for those up north to recover. 

Yeah... that is pretty much how I look at the models until something cold and/or snowy shows up.   Just scouring for dry periods or favorable timing with rain at night and dry during the day.   Rain doesn't interest me and its nice to be outside when its dry.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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