PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the GFS extended ensemble looked really nice by mid December.  Well defined GOA block.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We could do a lot worse than 07-08 or even 99-00.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Forecast is for 27.......down to 30.2 at 6:25 PM.  Doubt that forecast holds.

[MossMan]

Yep, we are doing this!! 

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I wouldn' mind it.  Leavenworth had 66 inches in December and 39 in January.  128 total for the winter.  But I hope everyone gets a lot of snow this winter.

BTW the snowiest month I could find was December 1996.  94 inches fell.

I know for a fact 1916 was uber ridiculous over there.  I've seen pictures from Cle Elum that showed many feet on the ground.  It was extraordinary even for there.  I want to say there was over 100 inches on the ground, but I can't remember where I saw that.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We could do a lot worse than 07-08 or even 99-00.

I will say that Dewey brought up an interesting point about some near misses in 2007-08.  If that's the worst case scenario this time around just some minor details going better could make it acceptable.  I seem to remember the model world showing a huge blast in January of 2000 so it came close.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I know for a fact 1916 was uber ridiculous over there.  I've seen pictures from Cle Elum that showed many feet on the ground.  It was extraordinary even for there.  I want to say there was over 100 inches on the ground, but I can't remember where I saw that.

Bet the Model T had a hell of time in such weather.

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, Dave said:

It's definitely been torchy in western Oregon.

BTW, for anyone that wants to pull those anomaly maps, here is a great website to snag them from.

https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/

That's not an anomaly map.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep, we are doing this!! 

No bonus this year 

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the anomaly map for the past 30 days there is quite an N to S gradient.  Zero to +2 for the Seattle area to +4 to +6 for the Willamette Valley

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I know for a fact 1916 was uber ridiculous over there.  I've seen pictures from Cle Elum that showed many feet on the ground.  It was extraordinary even for there.  I want to say there was over 100 inches on the ground, but I can't remember where I saw that.

I have seen pictures from Leavenworth from what I think was 1916, before it was a Babarian town.  Very impressive.  Of course they didn't have snow removal like we do now, but still amazing.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Forecast is for 27.......down to 30.2 at 6:25 PM.  Doubt that forecast holds.

Finally getting a bit of a chill going.  Already down to 40 here with lots of sub freezing east of the Cascades.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's not an anomaly map.

This one is.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have seen pictures from Leavenworth from what I think was 1916, before it was a Babarian town.  Very impressive.  Of course they didn't have snow removal like we do now, but still amazing.

 

 

At first I thought you had written barbarian town.  I thought... I never knew it was that crazy over there back then.

That is a crazy amount of snow.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have seen pictures from Leavenworth from what I think was 1916, before it was a Babarian town.  Very impressive.  Of course they didn't have snow removal like we do now, but still amazing.

 

 

I can't believe Springfield, OR is going to look like that on Christmas day 2021 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 35. High was 45 today.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At first I thought you had written barbarian town.  I thought... I never knew it was that crazy over there back then.

That is a crazy amount of snow.

At times during Oktoberfest it has seemed like a barbarian town!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was just going to post that. Doesn't look half bad for an ensemble mean 23 days out...

It's been pretty consistent showing that kind of a pattern for about the last week.  And consistent with the Euro long range as well as the CFS.

BTW for those who don't know, the really long range GFS is run once per day for the 0Z forecast.  It is available on Pivotal very late afternoon the next day and on some paid sites.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Not sure what is worse.  Rex block that lasts from Dec 1st-March 31st, or the way the Ducks are playing tonight.

[Tyler Mode]

35, hoping to score a freeze by midnight.  Average for my station for November is 8, I'm at 2 so far.

[The Swamp]

32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

At times during Oktoberfest it has seemed like a barbarian town!

those are some crazy snow pictures man, wow!

i guess you don't have to worry about Oktoberfest any more?  It's going to be in Wenatchee.

has your mayor outlawed Christmas and the tree lighting yet?

[The Swamp]

39 in the swamp

gonna get a good freeze tonight

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

39 in the swamp

gonna get a good freeze tonight

I'm thinking a 34.4 degree frost.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Omegaraptor]

Chilly night here in the southern Willamette Valley and at the Reser Stadium. 36 at CVO.

Brookings still at 61 after a high of 68. Banana belt it sure is!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[mtep]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 4

*clears phlegm* you couldn't hear a dump truck driving through a nitroglycerin plant

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks, Randy @MossMan for inspiring me while posting the 00z GFS!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Dave]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

That's not an anomaly map.

Oops. I was forced to consume a drink or two due to the Duck game and clicked the wrong link. That page does have the anomaly maps there though that are easily available. It's a solid resource for those that like to whine about how things have been going lately. Including me.

[The Blob]

A very chilly 42 when were in the truck yard. 39 now.

[GHweatherChris]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp: 36.1, Dewpoint: 31.6 almost feels like Winter outside!

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Temp: 36.1, Dewpoint: 31.6 almost feels like Winter outside!

Sounds like some froggy weather is potentially in the books.