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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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The 12Z EPS does not show a strong cold signal over the PNW in the 10-15 day range... that is something to watch for in this situation.    When it shows a strong cold signal at that range then its usually a great sign.   Might lock in later... but its definitely not there yet.    This would be a good mountain snow pattern for sure. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8964800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS does not show a strong cold signal over the PNW in the 10-15 day range... that is something to watch for in this situation.    When it shows a strong cold signal at that range then its usually a great sign.   Might lock in later... but its definitely not there yet.    This would be a good mountain snow pattern for sure. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8964800.png

I’m in the baby blue!!!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Salem and Eugene are both at about 10” of rain for fall. Corvallis is missing too much data to give you a good figure.

SLE should end up right around average, potentially slightly below for November. We've done really well for rain up and our place. I'm at work in Salem and it's a fairly decent day with scattered showers, I guess its just been pouring non-stop at the house. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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51F with some scattered showers.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The sun is breaking out here, currently 46 degrees.  Got .48" since midnight putting me up to 11.05" for the month, 43.89" for the year.

 

Probably get the winter front and snow tires on the car this weekend, if not for down here, hopefully for trips up to the mountain in the coming weeks!  ❄️❄️❄️❄️

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS does not show a strong cold signal over the PNW in the 10-15 day range... that is something to watch for in this situation.    When it shows a strong cold signal at that range then its usually a great sign.   Might lock in later... but its definitely not there yet.    This would be a good mountain snow pattern for sure. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8964800.png

I just told the Discount Tire employee to put the regular tires back on the van since the EPS says NOPE! 
He just stared at me blankly like he didn’t understand ensembles…Weird. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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17 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

The sun is breaking out here, currently 46 degrees.  Got .48" since midnight putting me up to 11.05" for the month, 43.89" for the year.

 

Probably get the winter front and snow tires on the car this weekend, if not for down here, hopefully for trips up to the mountain in the coming weeks!  ❄️❄️❄️❄️

It's remarkable how much wetter you are than the airport. I believe BLI is only at 33" for the year which seemed surprisingly low to me, but I guess it only averages 35" a year anyways.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's remarkable how much wetter you are than the airport. I believe BLI is only at 33" for the year which seemed surprisingly low to me, but I guess it only averages 35" a year anyways.

BLI is the station with the lowest anomaly for the year in the SEA NWS area... currently around +3.70 for 2021 and +4.80 for just November.  

ECMWF shows about 4.50 inches at BLI over the next week so those numbers will undoubtedly continue to climb rather dramatically.    Taking into account the average rainfall of about 1 inch for the last week of November... BLI will likely be +7.00 for the year and +8.20 inches for just November by this time next week.    Seriously wet! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Druncle going on a bender in about 45 mins?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's remarkable how much wetter you are than the airport. I believe BLI is only at 33" for the year which seemed surprisingly low to me, but I guess it only averages 35" a year anyways.

Yeah its kind of surprising to me as well.  I am tucked right up against the foothills and on several occasions I have watched the radar on a few different big rain events and it has consistently shown heavier rain at my location compared to the airport, so I think I am in a sweet spot.  I should probably set my manual rain gauge back up for this event to double check. 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, iFred said:

Looks like a great mod preview signal!

Well crap.   I have not been saying much... and posting many positive things as well.         

That was a totally honest assessment of the EPS based on past experience.  I guess I will not post anything unless its affirmation of arctic air and snow.     👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Well shiet guys…. I slipped and told my wife. If it doesnt work out, you know who to blame. 

My son was asking about skiing... so I had to tell him.    And my wife was in the room at the time so she is in the know as well.   😁

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

My son was asking about skiing... so I had to tell him.    And my wife was in the room as well so she is in the know as well.   😁

So the knife will fall on the both of us for sure. I can see the people here prepping their pitchfork 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son was asking about skiing... so I had to tell him.    And my wife was in the room as well so she is in the know as well.   😁

That week is actually of great interest for us and I had to slipperty slip because we’re going to the SNF!!! Looks like a freezer game. 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son was asking about skiing... so I had to tell him.    And my wife was in the room at the time so she is in the know as well.   😁

My wife asked about what we want to do for dinner tonight so I pretty much had to tell her.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12z EPS compared to 00z. Stronger AK vortex in the medium range, and by consequence a warmer PNW outcome in the clown range.

A stronger AK vortex does not predict or suggest a colder PNW outcome, despite mythology the contrary. Apologies for the bluntness.

73A9B19F-D4E3-4673-91C7-43F458DFF6BA.gif

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2 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Yeah the cold troughs that get to us in the PNW typically start east of Alaska.

Correct.

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Figured it was a good time to jump in.  I also bought a snow blower last week. ((live in E WA by way of CA and previously the east coast (SC,TN, GA and NH) and no not military before you ask, just a nomad by choice)) so you can blame me for the torch-y ness lately

😆

 

Anyway here for the mood swings, model hugging, know it alls, dry humorists, and over all wx dorkiness.  Hoping to get buried (in Dec and Jan)

cheers

 

Welcome, not a lot of us here living east of the Cascades.  Where at?

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9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Figured it was a good time to jump in.  I also bought a snow blower last week. ((live in E WA by way of CA and previously the east coast (SC,TN, GA and NH) and no not military before you ask, just a nomad by choice)) so you can blame me for the torch-y ness lately

😆

 

Anyway here for the mood swings, model hugging, know it alls, dry humorists, and over all wx dorkiness.  Hoping to get buried (in Dec and Jan)

cheers

 

We do need a scapegoat for the torchy weather lately thank you for volunteering. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Figured it was a good time to jump in.  I also bought a snow blower last week. ((live in E WA by way of CA and previously the east coast (SC,TN, GA and NH) and no not military before you ask, just a nomad by choice)) so you can blame me for the torch-y ness lately

😆

 

Anyway here for the mood swings, model hugging, know it alls, dry humorists, and over all wx dorkiness.  Hoping to get buried (in Dec and Jan)

cheers

 

Welcome!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Figured it was a good time to jump in.  I also bought a snow blower last week. ((live in E WA by way of CA and previously the east coast (SC,TN, GA and NH) and no not military before you ask, just a nomad by choice)) so you can blame me for the torch-y ness lately

😆

 

Anyway here for the mood swings, model hugging, know it alls, dry humorists, and over all wx dorkiness.  Hoping to get buried (in Dec and Jan)

cheers

 

Edit: Liberty Lake? Welcome! Enjoy your snow. Always happy to see East side people.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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