PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is one of the most delicate balance situations I've seen in a while.  It's going to be a few days before we have a solid idea how this will evolve.

That ridge coming off Asia seems to play an important role.

Waves break earlier in prop cycle, dislodges cold into Western Canada. Or..waves break late, vortex wins.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile...the GEM looks better than the 12z.  I have no idea how the ECMWF will look.  My guess is better than the GFS.  It's been looking quite bullish on amplifying the Pacific ridge piece of the puzzle just before the ridge merger.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

On Super Bowl Sunday, the Canadian liked the idea of highs in the single digits 120 hours out.

That was a weird situation though.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah he has been making that clear all day. 

I’m thinking of jumping overboard but I’m not in the water yet.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That ridge coming off Asia seems to play an important role.

Waves break earlier in prop cycle, dislodges cold into Western Canada. Or..waves break late, vortex wins.

Can't wait to see how it plays out.  Even if this fails it's very early in the game.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That was a weird situation though.

None of this is new.

Well phased blocks are not easy to come by, even fleeting ones. And they’ve been even more scarce than usual of late.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, luminen said:

So, is the dream over? Is it really over? Man. 

In Cranbrook it's going to get cold regardless.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’ll go down with the ship. Turns out it’s a submarine.

[smerfylicious]

Yeesh what a run...

6z will save us?

[RentonHill]

Euro will certainly clear things up

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

None of this is new.

Well phased blocks are not easy to come by, even fleeting ones. And they’ve been even more scarce than usual of late.

Yeah....this one has less margin for error than some of the classics.  It could still work out though.

These last several winters have been interesting.  Since 2015-16 there have been very few total losers, but at the same time we can't seem to achieve top tier status with the exception of Feb 2019.  Even that one wasn't a balls to the wall cold event like we're due for.

[Gradient Keeper]

It is one run. If we see this the next 6-8 with the GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, EPS then we can say this initial period into the first 2 weeks of December *could* be shot.

[smerfylicious]

I'll say this. From November to March there isn't a better forum to be on. The hype. The drama. The rug pulls.

I'm so ready to be disappointed and pleasantly surprised with you all this year. Cheers!

[snow drift]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well our December to remember might be shot but Fred did sign us all up for a one year membership for the jelly of the month club. 

Si, muchas gracias, Señor Fred y Feliz Navidad.

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO not running on Pivotal site.....

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....this one has less margin for error than some of the classics.  It could still work out though.

These last several winters have been interesting.  Since 2015-16 there have been very few total losers, but at the same time we can't seem to achieve top tier status with the exception of Feb 2019.  Even that one wasn't a balls to the wall cold event like we're due for.

If we were looking at “the classics” through our modern lens of expecting too much from 10+ day weather models, the margin for error would be just as thin.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

It is one run. If we see this the next 6-8 with the GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, EPS then we can say this initial period into the first 2 weeks of December *could* be shot.

Absolutely.  The run was basically the same as other recent runs through day 7 or so.  It all comes down to the way that trough splits over the GOA.  It appears the GEFS is going to save itself on this run....at least to some extent.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

EURO not running on Pivotal site.....

It has not started on WB either... so its probably an issue at the source.    It normally starts the 00Z run at 9:50.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If we were looking at “the classics” through our modern lens of expecting too much from 10+ day weather models, the margin for error would be just as thin.

Are you a lawyer in real life 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

La Nino

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

La Nino

That was last year.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

EURO not running on Pivotal site.....

Uh oh.  Not running on Weatherbell yet either.  Talk about a bad time for it not to run!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are you a lawyer in real life 

He is.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are you a lawyer in real life 

Depends on your definition of “real.”

[snow_wizard]

It's just plain sad how addicted I am to the models in a case like this.  The ECMWF not running will be like an addict not being able to get a fix.

[jcmcgaffey]

3 hours ago, kokaneekidz said:

Sure it's not graupel?

Ya it was clearly hail. Was decently sized for this area too. 

[snow_wizard]

Yup...three sites with no ECMWF.

[GHweatherChris]

For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1.  But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21.

[snow_wizard]

On the topic of wet months leading to very cold weather.  Another great example is the sopping wet December 1979 leading to our last really great January (at least up here)....1980.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1.  But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21.

The 18z was quite good actually.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The 18z was quite good actually.

No where near as good as the 12z and the runs preceding it.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1.  But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21.

So you thought the 18Z was bad?  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

GEFS got better later in the run, but not as good as earlier runs.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

No where near as good as the 12z and the runs preceding it.

It was very good for the interior.  Not sure how you can say major snow and cold is not good.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are you a lawyer in real life 

Yes his name is Thomas Binger.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

GEFS got better later in the run, but not as good as earlier runs.

I'm betting some of tomorrow's runs will be right back on track.  The big picture early in the game is still the same.  The big players are still there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Could this be why it's not running?

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1.  But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21.

18z was great wdym

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Could this be why it's not running?

Oh snap they’ve been hacked 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

That was last year.

Multi year event.