Phil Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This is one of the most delicate balance situations I've seen in a while. It's going to be a few days before we have a solid idea how this will evolve. That ridge coming off Asia seems to play an important role. Waves break earlier in prop cycle, dislodges cold into Western Canada. Or..waves break late, vortex wins. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Meanwhile...the GEM looks better than the 12z. I have no idea how the ECMWF will look. My guess is better than the GFS. It's been looking quite bullish on amplifying the Pacific ridge piece of the puzzle just before the ridge merger. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: On Super Bowl Sunday, the Canadian liked the idea of highs in the single digits 120 hours out. That was a weird situation though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yeah he has been making that clear all day. I’m thinking of jumping overboard but I’m not in the water yet. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: That ridge coming off Asia seems to play an important role. Waves break earlier in prop cycle, dislodges cold into Western Canada. Or..waves break late, vortex wins. Can't wait to see how it plays out. Even if this fails it's very early in the game. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: That was a weird situation though. None of this is new. Well phased blocks are not easy to come by, even fleeting ones. And they’ve been even more scarce than usual of late. 5 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, luminen said: So, is the dream over? Is it really over? Man. In Cranbrook it's going to get cold regardless. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 I’ll go down with the ship. Turns out it’s a submarine. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Yeesh what a run... 6z will save us? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Euro will certainly clear things up 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: None of this is new. Well phased blocks are not easy to come by, even fleeting ones. And they’ve been even more scarce than usual of late. Yeah....this one has less margin for error than some of the classics. It could still work out though. These last several winters have been interesting. Since 2015-16 there have been very few total losers, but at the same time we can't seem to achieve top tier status with the exception of Feb 2019. Even that one wasn't a balls to the wall cold event like we're due for. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 It is one run. If we see this the next 6-8 with the GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, EPS then we can say this initial period into the first 2 weeks of December *could* be shot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 I'll say this. From November to March there isn't a better forum to be on. The hype. The drama. The rug pulls. I'm so ready to be disappointed and pleasantly surprised with you all this year. Cheers! 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 26 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well our December to remember might be shot but Fred did sign us all up for a one year membership for the jelly of the month club. Si, muchas gracias, Señor Fred y Feliz Navidad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 EURO not running on Pivotal site..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah....this one has less margin for error than some of the classics. It could still work out though. These last several winters have been interesting. Since 2015-16 there have been very few total losers, but at the same time we can't seem to achieve top tier status with the exception of Feb 2019. Even that one wasn't a balls to the wall cold event like we're due for. If we were looking at “the classics” through our modern lens of expecting too much from 10+ day weather models, the margin for error would be just as thin. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: It is one run. If we see this the next 6-8 with the GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, EPS then we can say this initial period into the first 2 weeks of December *could* be shot. Absolutely. The run was basically the same as other recent runs through day 7 or so. It all comes down to the way that trough splits over the GOA. It appears the GEFS is going to save itself on this run....at least to some extent. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: EURO not running on Pivotal site..... It has not started on WB either... so its probably an issue at the source. It normally starts the 00Z run at 9:50. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: If we were looking at “the classics” through our modern lens of expecting too much from 10+ day weather models, the margin for error would be just as thin. Are you a lawyer in real life 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 La Nino 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: La Nino That was last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: EURO not running on Pivotal site..... Uh oh. Not running on Weatherbell yet either. Talk about a bad time for it not to run! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Are you a lawyer in real life He is. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Are you a lawyer in real life Depends on your definition of “real.” 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 It's just plain sad how addicted I am to the models in a case like this. The ECMWF not running will be like an addict not being able to get a fix. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 hours ago, kokaneekidz said: Sure it's not graupel? Ya it was clearly hail. Was decently sized for this area too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Yup...three sites with no ECMWF. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1. But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 On the topic of wet months leading to very cold weather. Another great example is the sopping wet December 1979 leading to our last really great January (at least up here)....1980. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1. But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21. The 18z was quite good actually. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: The 18z was quite good actually. No where near as good as the 12z and the runs preceding it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1. But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21. So you thought the 18Z was bad? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 GEFS got better later in the run, but not as good as earlier runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: No where near as good as the 12z and the runs preceding it. It was very good for the interior. Not sure how you can say major snow and cold is not good. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Are you a lawyer in real life Yes his name is Thomas Binger. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: GEFS got better later in the run, but not as good as earlier runs. I'm betting some of tomorrow's runs will be right back on track. The big picture early in the game is still the same. The big players are still there. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Could this be why it's not running? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: For those counting, it was 2 bad GFS runs in a row, not just 1. But the goodies got teased for the first time on 11/21/21. 18z was great wdym 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Could this be why it's not running? Oh snap they’ve been hacked 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 22 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: That was last year. Multi year event. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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