RentonHill Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 12z EPS 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 The trades are really going crazy. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: 12z EPS Ripe with potential with any amplification. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, snow drift said: The trades are really going crazy. Yeah they are! Mega Nina 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Yeah they are! Mega Nina Come on!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: 12z EPS I forgot that cold patterns have to be pushed back for 5-7 days before they actually start to get closer. Seems to happen every time. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: From Zagrodnik's latest blog... Don't tell Phil but... https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/11/24/a-busy-pnw-forecast-more-atmospheric-rivers-followed-by-a-potential-cold-air-outbreak/ 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: From Zagrodnik's latest blog... Don't tell Phil but... https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/11/24/a-busy-pnw-forecast-more-atmospheric-rivers-followed-by-a-potential-cold-air-outbreak/ Uh oh Phil’s not gonna like this 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, smerfylicious said: What a morning. Crisp air, feels like winter! Where is the fog? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: From Zagrodnik's latest blog... Don't tell Phil but... https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/11/24/a-busy-pnw-forecast-more-atmospheric-rivers-followed-by-a-potential-cold-air-outbreak/ (sarcasm ON) Yeah but what the hell would he know, he's only a PhD, its not like he knows anything about weather or had any formal education in it (sarcasm OFF) 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 25 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I forgot that cold patterns have to be pushed back for 5-7 days before they actually start to get closer. Seems to happen every time. Yeah almost without fail that always seems to happen. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Phil said: Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do. Have you actually read his bio and credentials? No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW. 5 1 1 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Oregon is a southwestern state 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: Yeah almost without fail that always seems to happen. Pattern changes are tough for the models... but the big picture feels ripe with opportunity. And early December cold and snow is not probably not ideal if you want cold and snow during the second half of December around Christmas. Nature might be saving up to drop the hammer hard later in December! 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Checking back in, GFS, EURO still suck and B.C still in the crosshairs? Ok, I'll check back (again) in January 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Wow, Euro is a huge step back from 0z run. Disappointing. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHawks Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Having a variety of opinions is what keeps this forum alive. Remember, variety is the spice of life, so thanks Phil. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Conflicting reports? Anyway it’s currently cloudy and 44 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 54 minutes ago, snow drift said: The trades are really going crazy. I have no idea how to read these maps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Conflicting reports? Anyway it’s currently cloudy and 44 degrees. Absolutely no good news today. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Might as well just start looking forward to summer at this point. 1 2 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Absolutely no good news today. EPS looked okay??? 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Oregon is a southwestern state It's a northwestern state. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 43 minutes ago, Phil said: 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It's a northwestern state. Long live the south 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 38 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yeah almost without fail that always seems to happen. Moving the goalposts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 15 hours ago, snow_wizard said: In Cranbrook it's going to get cold regardless. Still been pathetic here though. Only about 1" of snow accumulated and I've already had about 7 days with snow falling. And that snow is all gone now. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: I have no idea how to read these maps. -=easterly trade winds/la niña friendly, +=westerly winds/el niño friendly Nino region 3.4 is around 150 W. We want enhanced trade winds from there and westward. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 23 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: I have no idea how to read these maps. Let me give this a try... We're looking at how the winds at the 850 hPa pressure level near the equator are changing with time. This is important because these winds affect the movement of sea surface water, which affects the strength of convection in the tropics, which affects the entire global atmosphere. Zonal means the E-W component of the wind. Near the equator, the dominant wind pattern is the trade winds which blow from east to west. Negative values on the plot indicate stronger than normal trade winds (i.e. more air than normal moving from east to west), while positive values indicate weaker than normal trade winds or even westerly winds if the values are positive enough. 2 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow drift said: -=easterly trade winds/la niña friendly, +=westerly winds/el niño friendly Nino region 3.4 is around 150 W. We want enhanced trade winds from there and westward. Whoops, I was reading the sign of the anomalies backwards then. 2 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Whoops, I was reading the sign of the anomalies backwards then. No big deal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow drift said: No big deal Apparently different people use different conventions... "Note that positive values of the 850 hPa zonal wind indices imply easterly anomalies." "https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C1214423625-SCIOPS" 2 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do. Have you actually read his bio and credentials? No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW. He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It’s probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it. 4 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do. Have you actually read his bio and credentials? No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW. 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It would probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it. 1 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It would probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it. The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 SEA is projected to be top 3 all-time wet Nov. by the time the month is over behind 2006 and 1998. The next week will see it climb the ladder even though as wet as it's been, currently sitting at #14. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 23 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Whoops, I was reading the sign of the anomalies backwards then. Blue is red. Sunshjne is rain. Cold is hot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Picked this up last night. Now I can scroll the weather forums on 55in! 5 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Picked this up last night. Now I can scroll the weather forums on 55in! Hopefully it's clear enough for you to see the dendrite on the models!! Exciting! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime. I believe that was when someone across the lake from our family lake house on LK Goodwin drove their Suzuki Samurai onto the lake and did okay for about 1 minute…They were okay as they kept it around the shallow area where it was only 4-5’ deep. The Samurai was probably okay after it dried out. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.