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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Uh oh Phil’s not gonna like this 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

(sarcasm ON) Yeah but what the hell would he know, he's only a PhD, its not like he knows anything about weather or had any formal education in it (sarcasm OFF) 

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25 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I forgot that cold patterns have to be pushed back for 5-7 days before they actually start to get closer. Seems to happen every time.

Yeah almost without fail that always seems to happen. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

🤦‍♂️

Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do.  Have you actually read his bio and credentials?   No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW.

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Just now, MossMan said:

Yeah almost without fail that always seems to happen. 

Pattern changes are tough for the models... but the big picture feels ripe with opportunity.     And early December cold and snow is not probably not ideal if you want cold and snow during the second half of December around Christmas.    Nature might be saving up to drop the hammer hard later in December!    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports? 
Anyway it’s currently cloudy and 44 degrees. 

Absolutely no good news today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I have no idea how to read these maps.

Let me give this a try... 

We're looking at how the winds at the 850 hPa pressure level near the equator are changing with time. This is important because these winds affect the movement of sea surface water, which affects the strength of convection in the tropics, which affects the entire global atmosphere. 

Zonal means the E-W component of the wind. Near the equator, the dominant wind pattern is the trade winds which blow from east to west. 

Negative values on the plot indicate stronger than normal trade winds (i.e. more air than normal moving from east to west), while positive values indicate weaker than normal trade winds or even westerly winds if the values are positive enough. 

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

-=easterly trade winds/la niña friendly, +=westerly winds/el niño friendly

Nino region 3.4 is around 150 W. We want enhanced trade winds from there and westward.

Whoops, I was reading the sign of the anomalies backwards then. 

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

No big deal

Apparently different people use different conventions... 

"Note that positive values of the 850 hPa zonal wind indices imply easterly anomalies."

"https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C1214423625-SCIOPS"

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do.  Have you actually read his bio and credentials?   No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW.

He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It’s probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sorry Phil, but someone who is a PhD and has forecasted for the PNW knows more about our area than you do.  Have you actually read his bio and credentials?   No disrespect intended, I honestly respect your knowledge and you certainly know more than I do, but you have got to get off your high horse that you know more about our weather than anyone living in the PNW.

 

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It would probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it.  

 

and-on-this-day-shots-were-firedet-nelneyenierator-net-pictures-of-52863470.png

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

He’s kinda right though. Alaska is rarely the direct connection for us during a “typical” Arctic outbreak evolution. It would probably atypical enough to consider it an outlier. February 1989 is of course the steroidal example of it.  

The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime.

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6 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

The one thing I vividly remember from Feb '89 was the steam coming off Possession Sound along the Mukilteo waterfront I have never seen that since. It had to be a 40-50 degree diff in water vs air temp. Also it was such a long cold sunny arctic airmass after the snow stopped. Would love to witness that just once more in this lifetime.

I believe that was when someone across the lake from our family lake house on LK Goodwin drove their Suzuki Samurai onto the lake and did okay for about 1 minute…They were okay as they kept it around the shallow area where it was only 4-5’ deep. The Samurai was probably okay after it dried out. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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