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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Flash freeze! I believe that was the day a lot of people were walking home on I-5.
 

And highs in the teens a few days later. Yum!  

72504DCB-2395-4815-8766-F4E1E56625F3.jpeg

AD5E3B38-6577-44A8-894D-E07564F8391E.jpeg

Fell on my back that night getting firewood slipping on ice! North wind was furious and relentless!  Crazy fun night and wife was stuck on I-5 till early morning.  

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Fun fact for the day: 

SEA's daytime high sum through yesterday is 1216F (~650C), if such temperature does exist we'd be living on partially molten rock. 

Take that snow lovers.  Melt on contact. 

Pizza bake time only 2 minutes on the sidewalk ! 
3 minutes for extra crunchy 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

For the record... I would bet money on something very memorable happening in December in terms of cold and snow.  I think Matt is right there too.   I just think it might be in the second half of December... which will make it even more memorable. 

Completely agree. Hearing a bit about how models tend to "rush" pattern changes... we're not even there yet. All we've seen is the typical fantasy range eyecandy, with maybe a hint of some kind of legitimate pattern change in the works. We'll be waiting a couple more weeks before anything truly interesting enters the realistic range, if we're going to get anything. But this overall weather regime we've been in has that 'buzz' to it, like snow is imminent. We'll see. White Christmas chances above normal IMO

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  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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🦃🍗 HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🥧🍴

00z GFS in 1 hour 1 minute

I'm looking for a solid ridge merger before or around Day 8 with energy cut off/kona low shunted south towards Hawaii. I want to see the Aleutian ridge migrate further east to at least ~160 W preferably ~155-150 W. That's not too much to ask? right? You gotta believe! You gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

🦃🍗 HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🥧🍴

00z GFS in 1 hour 1 minute

I'm looking for a solid ridge merger before or around Day 8 with energy cut off/kona low shunted south towards Hawaii. I want to see the Aleutian ridge migrate further east to at least ~160 W preferably ~155-150 W. That's not too much to ask? right? You gotta believe! You gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

It’s thanksgiving not christmas

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Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

Number 2 if it breaks the 31 year streak without a white Christmas here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

This is obviously not a very hard choice, but if you add percentages in the mix it makes it more interesting. If the early December option has an 80% chance of happening versus the Christmas option having a 50% chance of happening then I'd go with the early December option.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

Neither.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

Makes no difference to me. I would love a week of rain. Getting it the same month we see snow would be an added bonus. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

2008.

December 13th thru the 26th redux Works for me. 
Sorry I can’t pick one or the other, I want both. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

#1 happens by December 10th and then there are snow events twice a month through March.

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

Option #2 more likely than #1 IMO.

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26 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

This is obviously not a very hard choice, but if you add percentages in the mix it makes it more interesting. If the early December option has an 80% chance of happening versus the Christmas option having a 50% chance of happening then I'd go with the early December option.

Both have a 100% chance in my poll.  You just have to pick one.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

White Christmases are always fun, so No. 2 it is.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

#2) I Must have a white Christmas

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

61% of the days in December 2008 were completely forgettable here.

This feels like this is a walk back from your "December to Remember" rhetoric...😟

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There has never been a 31 day December to Remember.

#science

It’s coming.

I dunno, I think its gotta be at least a two week long event if you plan on walking over the (frozen!) Columbia to PDX.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Have you never heard of a FLASH FREEZE?

Only from Jim and The Day After Tomorrow. 😱

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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