Phil Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2007/08 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: 2007/08 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 00z GEM Alert! 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Bummer that ridge isn't amplified up through Alaska though. Still plenty of time for that. 00z ECMWF in 6 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Pretty sure it snowed on Christmas in 2007. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 hours ago, Phil said: Is this accurate?? I'm shocked it's not Pumpkin for the NW. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 This is the worst winter I have ever lived through. 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 GEM 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 I'm not sure what to think about the prospects for early December. The pieces are there, but the evolution has to be perfect for it to work out. I think a minor cold snap at the very least. If the big one doesn't work out on the first try I think it will try again by mid month given the MJO forecast. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: This is the worst winter I have ever lived through. Its Autumn. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: This is the worst winter I have ever lived through. And it hasn't even started yet! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: GEM That makes it look so easy. Certainly within the envelope of reasonable possibility. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, Phil said: 2007/08 Not seeing it. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 57 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: That is one Arctic Hadouken Iger Uppercut Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 850s dropped below -6 on the GFS in the almost believable range. At least that is warning shot territory. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 GFS was cold AF in AK. 1 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 The only thing wrong with the GEFS is it dumps too much energy from the GOA trough to the SW around day 7 instead of holding some back ahead of the developing block. The type of thing that could change drastically on subsequent runs. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldManWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Pretty sure it snowed on Christmas in 2007. It did. Wet snow accumulated in Gresham where I was (early afternoon) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: GFS was cold AF in AK. We're talking some pretty real cold up there alright. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: GFS was cold AF in AK. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 One very obvious problem with the 2007 analog right off the bat is that November was nothing like this one. This November has been absolute textbook for leading to something big...especially in a La Nina. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: One very obvious problem with the 2007 analog right off the bat is that November was nothing like this one. This November has been absolute textbook for leading to something big...especially in a La Nina. If you ask me based solely on tonight's runs so far we were closer to seeing a warning shot or maybe a blast. Just need those pieces to come together perfectly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: One very obvious problem with the 2007 analog right off the bat is that November was nothing like this one. This November has been absolute textbook for leading to something big...especially in a La Nina. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one: This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas. This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas. Selfishly, option 1 because I'll be in Nashville for Jesus' Big Birthday Bash. Last year i had to leave on the 21st as it was dumping 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 We were entering a period of strong blocking around this time in 2007. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 RCMP ensemble 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: RCMP ensemble Is this the same as the CMCE on Pivotal? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Is this the same as the CMCE on Pivotal? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Phil said: We're talking about one of the driest November's (2007) vs this one which is historically wet. Not exactly a good match. The temperatures are totally wrong also. Hard to shrug that off. I think you are way too hung up on that year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm not sure what to think about the prospects for early December. The pieces are there, but the evolution has to be perfect for it to work out. I think a minor cold snap at the very least. If the big one doesn't work out on the first try I think it will try again by mid month given the MJO forecast. I was thinking this exactly. Long range models have shown a persistent cold that got colder though the month, not just the eye candy I shared earlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: We're talking about one of the driest November's (2007) vs this one which is historically wet. Not exactly a good match. The temperatures are totally wrong also. Hard to shrug that off. I think you are way too hung up on that year. So you believe projecting from the subseasonal state is more useful than doing so relative to the mean state? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Day 5'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: So you believe projecting from the subseasonal state is more useful than doing so relative to the mean state? Are you new? Do you think this is gonna go anywhere? Did I leave the iron on? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Are you new? Do you think this is gonna go anywhere? Did I leave the iron on? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 In general the ECMWF looks more amplified around days 5 and 6 than the 12z. We'll see where that takes us. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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