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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Is this accurate??

B00F8140-D762-4413-8C81-70E5FF0FCDFF.jpeg

I'm shocked it's not Pumpkin for the NW.

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  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm not sure what to think about the prospects for early December.  The pieces are there, but the evolution has to be perfect for it to work out.  I think a minor cold snap at the very least.  If the big one doesn't work out on the first try I think it will try again by mid month given the MJO forecast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

This is the worst winter I have ever lived through. 

And it hasn't even started yet!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM

 

F396AC66-7CCD-42F0-BB68-318D51F3CF27.gif

That makes it look so easy.  Certainly within the envelope of reasonable possibility.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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850s dropped below -6 on the GFS in the almost believable range.  At least that is warning shot territory.

  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The only thing wrong with the GEFS is it dumps too much energy from the GOA trough to the SW around day 7 instead of holding some back ahead of the developing block.  The type of thing that could change drastically on subsequent runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

GFS was cold AF in AK.

We're talking some pretty real cold up there alright.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One very obvious problem with the 2007 analog right off the bat is that November was nothing like this one.  This November has been absolute textbook for leading to something big...especially in a La Nina.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One very obvious problem with the 2007 analog right off the bat is that November was nothing like this one.  This November has been absolute textbook for leading to something big...especially in a La Nina.

If you ask me based solely on tonight's runs so far we were closer to seeing a warning shot or maybe a blast. Just need those pieces to come together perfectly.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One very obvious problem with the 2007 analog right off the bat is that November was nothing like this one.  This November has been absolute textbook for leading to something big...especially in a La Nina.

🤔

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

  • This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
  • This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

Selfishly, option 1 because I'll be in Nashville for Jesus' Big Birthday Bash. Last year i had to leave on the 21st as it was dumping :(

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

🤔

We're talking about one of the driest November's (2007) vs this one which is historically wet.  Not exactly a good match.  The temperatures are totally wrong also.  Hard to shrug that off.  I think you are way too hung up on that year.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure what to think about the prospects for early December.  The pieces are there, but the evolution has to be perfect for it to work out.  I think a minor cold snap at the very least.  If the big one doesn't work out on the first try I think it will try again by mid month given the MJO forecast.

I was thinking this exactly. Long range models have shown a persistent cold that got colder though the month, not just the eye candy I shared earlier. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We're talking about one of the driest November's (2007) vs this one which is historically wet.  Not exactly a good match.  The temperatures are totally wrong also.  Hard to shrug that off.  I think you are way too hung up on that year.

So you believe projecting from the subseasonal state is more useful than doing so relative to the mean state?

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Are you new? Do you think this is gonna go anywhere? Did I leave the iron on?

Happy Adam Scott GIF by Sky

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In general the ECMWF looks more amplified around days 5 and 6 than the 12z.  We'll see where that takes us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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