MossMan Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 36 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Sorry supply chain issues, won’t be delivered until 12/26. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: If it was that easy we would be perpetually buried in snow just from the actions of the people on this forum! 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain. The favorable trend has reversed. Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run. It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 The 12z GFS ensemble is a complete puzzle. Totally out of synch with the operational and very different than any other ensemble mean. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain. The favorable trend has reversed. Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run. It shows 6+ inches of rain for the area hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours. Wow yeah it’s trended significantly wetter here too…double what the 00z was showing through the end of the month last night. Looks like the 12z gfs is significantly wetter than the run last night too. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain. The favorable trend has reversed. Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run. It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours. Yeah....there are some significant changes with trajectory and other key factors. Looks like more energy from the Western ridge is poised to bleed back into the high pressure cell approaching from Asia. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain. The favorable trend has reversed. Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run. It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours. If it’s spread out with an inch or so every day things hopefully won’t be too bad. If we see more damage on the lower mainland it would be pretty bad. Fuel rations and supply chain issues will maybe continue thru Christmas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I read somewhere that January 1950 was the most anomalous blocking episode on the entire planet during the 20th century. I just want to experience a winter like that in the lowlands of the PNW. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 lol at GEM, we love it when we love it, but mostly hate it and think its out to lunch? is that right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: I hate Turkey. Just the smell of it makes me wretch. Non Traditional T-giving here. Having crabs. I guess they are from AK as WA season isn't open yet 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Canadian ensembles were much better 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 12Z ECMWF dumps tons of rain and then looks just like the 12Z GEFS. Horrible. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Yesterday I thought we would just barely crack 10” of rain for the month here…based on this morning’s runs exceeding 12” for the month seems within reach. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Reminded me of the Thanksgivings as a kid with wind and rain in my face as I was finishing phase 4.5 of the outside illumination holiday project this morning. Wind gust almost blew me off the ladder. Up to .33” on the day, 12.12” for the month. 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF dumps tons of rain and then looks just like the 12Z GEFS. Horrible. There’s a good shot sea tac passes December 2015 for the wettest month since November 2006. Getting into top 10 all time wet months seems likely…and wettest fall ever also looks pretty probable. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 My wife sent me to the garden to pick herbs for our turkey prep (herbs go all winter) and we have roses still blooming out there so we did not have a hard freeze yet. Definitely a 2016 feel... its going to crash at some point in December. Lock it in! 7 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: My wife sent me to the garden to pick herbs for our turkey prep (herbs go all winter) and we have roses still blooming out there so we did not have a hard freeze yet. Definitely a 2016 feel... its going to crash at some point in December. Lock it in! in E WA and I still have mushrooms coming up on my back lawn 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 38 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: lol at GEM, we love it when we love it, but mostly hate it and think its out to lunch? is that right? Right now it looks like it’s the only friend we got 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Terrible ECMWF run. This may not be the one, but we still have the favorable MJO forecast so it's not hopeless. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Right now it looks like it’s the only friend we got The GFS operational was pretty good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Terrible ECMWF run. This may not be the one, but we still have the favorable MJO forecast so it's not hopeless. Far from hopeless... a delay really feels like it will payoff from mid December onward in this situation. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 HAPPY THANKSGIVING 12z GFS nice eye candy with the ridge merger at Day 7 resulting in a chilly warning shot and perhaps lowland snow potential. 12z GEFS hot turd no ridge merger with at times a La Nina pattern shows itself. 12z GEM ridge merger Day 6.5 to 7.5 promising. 12z CMCE long range much improved, but not ideal yet. 12z ECMWF was an unmitigated hot, flaming, burning, incinerated turd, but at least we manage strong east winds. As far as Rainfall potential for northern Washington and southern BC it is literally a worst case scenario when adding on melting snowpack. Let's all root, hope, pray, chant, whatever for the models to show an abrupt pattern change to spare folks up north. I have to think over the next 2-3 days model solutions will change, perhaps dramatically, but in what who knows. I just think the way models are currently handling the cut-off/kona low and evolution of the ridge potential merger is going to be very different by Saturday-Sunday 00z. [Model Countdown] Next up.... 18z GFS in 2 hours 3 minutes This evening.... 00z GFS in 8 hours 3 minutes Later this evening.... 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 13 minutes Even later this evening.... 00z EPS(Pivotal) in 12 hours 57 minutes Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 T-giving cliff diving. Get you some! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You don't know the half of it. Doc? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright-31 Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy Thanksgiving Here’s to many inches of snow for all over the next few months. ️ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain. The favorable trend has reversed. Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run. It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours. Looks like areas south of Seattle are forecasted to get more. We could always hope it shifts south with each run. I'll take some, I can take it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 EPS control run still on board... 8 4 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: EPS control run still on board... so wait that looks like the 'no-no' aka arctic cold from AK? '89 part deux? I only know that because all the historians around here. in '89 I was cleaning up from a Hurricane in SC (Hugo) and later had 18" of snow 2 days before xmas. extremely rare in those parts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain. The favorable trend has reversed. Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run. It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours. The river forecasts are trending worse up here. Nothing like we saw a couple of weeks ago but still going the wrong direction. Up to .89" here with occasional bouts of high wind. BTW Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!! 3 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Looks like areas south of Seattle are forecasted to get more. We could always hope it shifts south with each run. I'll take some, I can take it. lol looks like we’re gonna get a bunch too but not quite as much as up north. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: EPS control run still on board... Here is rcmp mean, eps mean and control, and GEFS at day 15 6 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Hasn’t rained too much the last couple hours but it looks like it’s going to pick up soon. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 Salem will end November with near average rainfall, we will be decently above average. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Salem will end November with near average rainfall, we will be decently above average. We might get close to double the average for November here…sucks it isn’t the other way around. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: We might get close to double the average for November here…sucks it isn’t the other way around. I guess, but with no snow pack it doesn’t matter much anyway. We have enough to fill the creeks and recharge the groundwater. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: Non Traditional T-giving here. Having crabs. I guess they are from AK as WA season isn't open yet I absolutely love turkey. I would probably skip attending if the hosts were not to serve turkey. I love Thanksgiving and not having turkey is blasphemy lol. Anyway, a quiet day weatherwise here. Dry and overcast though we had some sprinkles earlier. 4 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I guess, but with no snow pack it doesn’t matter much anyway. We have enough to fill the creeks and recharge the groundwater. Me thinks it’ll be caught up by Christmas time. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2021 Report Share Posted November 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: I absolutely love turkey. I would probably skip attending if the hosts were not to serve turkey. I love Thanksgiving and not having turkey is blasphemy lol. Anyway, a quiet day weatherwise here. Dry and overcast though we had some sprinkles earlier. I guess its good its just the Wife and I. Last year we did a standing rib roast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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