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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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40 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

 

CC5917C7-43A4-417E-9E95-943A0AD67523.png

If it was that easy we would be perpetually buried in snow just from the actions of the people on this forum!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12z GFS ensemble is a complete puzzle.  Totally out of synch with the operational and very different than any other ensemble mean.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the area hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

Wow yeah it’s trended significantly wetter here too…double what the 00z was showing through the end of the month last night. Looks like the 12z gfs is significantly wetter than the run last night too. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

Yeah....there are some significant changes with trajectory and other key factors.

Looks like more energy from the Western ridge is poised to bleed back into the high pressure cell approaching from Asia.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

If it’s spread out with an inch or so every day things hopefully won’t be too bad. If we see more damage on the lower mainland it would be pretty bad. Fuel rations and supply chain issues will maybe continue thru Christmas. 

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Yesterday I thought we would just barely crack 10” of rain for the month here…based on this morning’s runs exceeding 12” for the month seems within reach. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Reminded me of the Thanksgivings as a kid with wind and rain in my face as I was finishing phase 4.5 of the outside illumination holiday project this morning. Wind gust almost blew me off the ladder. Up to .33” on the day, 12.12” for the month. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF dumps tons of rain and then looks just like the 12Z GEFS.    Horrible.

There’s a good shot sea tac passes December 2015 for the wettest month since November 2006. Getting into top 10 all time wet months seems likely…and wettest fall ever also looks pretty probable. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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My wife sent me to the garden to pick herbs for our turkey prep (herbs go all winter) and we have roses still blooming out there so we did not have a hard freeze yet.   Definitely a 2016 feel... its going to crash at some point in December.  Lock it in! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife sent me to the garden to pick herbs for our turkey prep (herbs go all winter) and we have roses still blooming out there so we did not have a hard freeze yet.   Definitely a 2016 feel... its going to crash at some point in December.  Lock it in! 

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20211125_110235.jpg

in E WA and I still have mushrooms coming up on my back lawn

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Terrible ECMWF run.  This may not be the one, but we still have the favorable MJO forecast so it's not hopeless.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Right now it looks like it’s the only friend we got

The GFS operational was pretty good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Terrible ECMWF run.  This may not be the one, but we still have the favorable MJO forecast so it's not hopeless.

Far from hopeless... a delay really feels like it will payoff from mid December onward in this situation.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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🦃🍗 HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🥧🍴

12z GFS nice eye candy with the ridge merger at Day 7 resulting in a chilly warning shot and perhaps lowland snow potential. 12z GEFS hot turd no ridge merger with at times a La Nina pattern shows itself. 12z GEM ridge merger Day 6.5 to 7.5 promising. 12z CMCE long range much improved, but not ideal yet. 12z ECMWF was an unmitigated hot, flaming, burning, incinerated turd, but at least we manage strong east winds.

As far as Rainfall potential for northern Washington and southern BC it is literally a worst case scenario when adding on melting snowpack. Let's all root, hope, pray, chant, whatever for the models to show an abrupt pattern change to spare folks up north.

I have to think over the next 2-3 days model solutions will change, perhaps dramatically, but in what who knows. I just think the way models are currently handling the cut-off/kona low and evolution of the ridge potential merger is going to be very different by Saturday-Sunday 00z.

[Model Countdown]

Next up....
18z GFS in 2 hours 3 minutes

This evening....
00z GFS in 8 hours 3 minutes

Later this evening....
00z ECMWF in 10 hours 13 minutes

Even later this evening....
00z EPS(Pivotal) in 12 hours 57 minutes

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

Looks like areas south of Seattle are forecasted to get more. We could always hope it shifts south with each run.

I'll take some, I can take it. 

 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS control run still on board...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-9051200.png

so wait that looks like the 'no-no' aka arctic cold from AK?  '89 part deux?  I only know that because all the historians around here.  in '89 I was cleaning up from a Hurricane in SC (Hugo) and later had 18" of snow 2 days before xmas.  extremely rare in those parts

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much worse again for areas to the north and excessive rain.    The favorable trend has reversed.    Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days are about double up there from the 00Z run.    It shows 6+ inches of rain for the areas hit hard last time... and that is just through 144 hours.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8360000.png

The river forecasts are trending worse up here.  Nothing like we saw a couple of weeks ago but still going the wrong direction.

Up to .89" here with occasional bouts of high wind.

 

BTW Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!!

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27 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks like areas south of Seattle are forecasted to get more. We could always hope it shifts south with each run.

I'll take some, I can take it. 

 

lol looks like we’re gonna get a bunch too but not quite as much as up north. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Salem will end November with near average rainfall, we will be decently above average.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem will end November with near average rainfall, we will be decently above average.

We might get close to double the average for November here…sucks it isn’t the other way around. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We might get close to double the average for November here…sucks it isn’t the other way around. 

I guess, but with no snow pack it doesn’t  matter much anyway. We have enough to fill the creeks and recharge the groundwater. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Non Traditional T-giving here.  Having crabs.  I guess they are from AK as WA season isn't open yet

I absolutely love turkey. I would probably skip attending if the hosts were not to serve turkey. I love Thanksgiving and not having turkey is blasphemy lol. Anyway, a quiet day weatherwise here. Dry and overcast though we had some sprinkles earlier.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess, but with no snow pack it doesn’t  matter much anyway. We have enough to fill the creeks and recharge the groundwater. 

Me thinks it’ll be caught up by Christmas time. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I absolutely love turkey. I would probably skip attending if the hosts were not to serve turkey. I love Thanksgiving and not having turkey is blasphemy lol. Anyway, a quiet day weatherwise here. Dry and overcast though we had some sprinkles earlier.

I guess its good its just the Wife and I.  Last year we did a standing rib roast.

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