PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just plain gorgeous analogs tonight.

 

Both the 6-10, 8-14 day look EXCELLENT!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

I think the ridge over us is trending weaker on the EURO.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I think the ridge over us is trending weaker on the EURO.

Looks like it

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Euro is MUCH wetter than the GFS. I did not want to see that.

 

[van city]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 2 00z runs)

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, van city said:

Are they a good or bad sign? Can they extrapolate?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Meh.... NOPE

 

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 Meh.... NOPE

 

Frosty nights at least

[smerfylicious]

I can't see the AL behaving in that way after day 6, but stranger things have happened.

[Deweydog]

Tryptophan-induced nugget of joy for the night:

When hour 384 on tonight’s GFS verifies, winter will be 12.2% over.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 YUCK, but at least we manage strong east winds and inversions. Yay!

[van city]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 YUCK, but at least we manage strong east winds and inversions. Yay!

Yep. It could be worse. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Tryptophan-induced nugget of joy for the night:

At point hour 384 on tonight’s GFS verifies, winter will be 12.2% over.

Might as well call this one a wrap and look forward to 22-23. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[SouthHillFrosty]

Winters have been back loaded significantly the last couple years. No reason this year won’t be the same 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 looks a lot like the GFS with the ridge merger and potential for big time cold Day 11+

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TacomaWaWx]

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ends on a promising note.  Looks like we're on the upswing again.

[TacomaWaWx]

Current euro projection puts us at 12” of rain for this month…21.50” for this fall surpassing the previous record fall by over 2 inches of rainfall. Very wet. 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.76” since midnight here…probably only going to get a few hundredths more before midnight but a solidly wet day still with probably over 3” of additional rain by Tuesday. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF ends on a promising note.  Looks like we're on the upswing again.

Agreed and perhaps a reason for a night shift. I dunno. I do get a sense that we may be seeing real good runs soon perhaps my prediction of Saturday 00z may ring true. C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 2 hours 31 minutes

[snow_wizard]

 

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Can you rate each one on scale of 1-10

For what eventually happened going forward from each analog...

1979 = 7

1972 = 8

1990 = 8

1970 = 6 (7 if you count late Feb/early Mar)

2008 = 8

1971 = 8

1984 = 8

1995 = 7

1956 = 9

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It's just ridiculous how many of those had Arctic outbreaks within the next month or so.  One of the two bad ones was a Nino.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just ridiculous how many of those had Arctic outbreaks within the next month or so.  One of the two bad ones was a Nino.

I think we will see something decent this winter. Hopefully next month! 

[GHweatherChris]

1.8" of rain so far today, 17.73" total MTD.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

1.8" of rain so far today, 17.73" total MTD.

Might get close to 2 feet of rain for the month. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Might get close to 2 feet of rain for the month. 

Nothing new, just November.  

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nothing new, just November.  

Lol I’m sure that’s well above average but I know it takes a lot to impress you 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I’m sure that’s well above average but I know it takes a lot to impress you 

After this past June, nothing is shocking anymore, well yet anyways..... in regards to our weather.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Winters have been back loaded significantly the last couple years. No reason this year won’t be the same 

OTOH, it could all just be random coincidence. Seattle didn’t miss having a snowy January by much in 2020 (Skagit County north had one, with full-on arctic blast conditions in Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland.)

[snow_wizard]

The EPS looks like it's trying to force a Kona low by day 9 or so.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS looks like it's trying to force a Kona low by day 9 or so.

That would be nice! $$$$

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think we will see something decent this winter. Hopefully next month! 

November 1990 is a very good analogue for this month, and we all know (or rather, should know) what December 1990 was like (and the fun extended well into January 1991 in Whatcom and the BCLM).

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

After this past June, nothing is shocking anymore, well yet anyways..... in regards to our weather.

Has been some pretty interesting weather events this year…huge snowstorm in February, record breaking heatwave in June and some insane flooding and rainfall this fall. Hopefully something historically Arctic in December but we will see. If we get anything this winter I think it’s just going to be a few days in the low to mid 30s with a bit of snow that’s my prediction nothing crazy cold IMO. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS control is showing a classic retrogression sequence for week two.