Jump to content

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

You should consider moving to Eastern Oregon. Bend would be a no brainer if I lived down there.

If I had the money I would be moving my family there pronto. Or to Indiana where we have family. Sadly, I'm very poor with severe epilepsy and that's not an option.

  • Sad 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, but who wants to wait until then.  I don't. I want Cold and SNOW! before the 10th.

I still think we have a great shot in early December.  Even better by mid month.  I just looked at everything and almost every model shows it getting cold by mid December or so.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z EPS must be a flaming hot pile of Christmas cheer as no one has posted it.

It's actually pretty good later on.  People have just ruined the mood on here for the time being.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If I had the money I would be moving my family there pronto. Or to Indiana where we have family. Sadly, I'm very poor and that's not an option.

I think you're going to do fine this winter.  I don't blame you for your attitude at all right now.  I would be beyond bummed being in your shoes over the past few years.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Sorry to hear that. Wishing you the best 🙏🏼

Yeah....my heart goes out to him.

In reality a lot of people on this forum would rather live in a better climate, but there is always something to keep you here.  In my case I still plan on getting out of here eventually.  Until then let's hope for at least a few really good winters over the next 5 years.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On another note it's pretty impressive to see how CA went right back into not being able to buy a drop of rain since the huge AR a while back.  I think that will change when the cold sets in up here.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Swamp said:

56 and beautiful sunshine.

wow.  what a day.  what happened to the AR?

Does it seem like every rainstorm is now called an AR for dramatic effect by the media?

We used to just have a rain storm and dry off and then have another one.

 

Today is a break in the AR... but its been pouring rain here and from downtown Seattle northward for much of the day.    I wish your rain shadow hole in the clouds was representative of the entire Seattle area but sadly its not.  

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52F and cloudy. Off and on showers.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Rain 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously with all of the blocking coming up the AK cold will be a moot point anyway.  Big change coming according to all models.

Maybe.

  • Popcorn 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like S/O/N will come in with the strongest +EPO average on record. 😬

The most +EPO La Niña autumns on record are 2011/12, 2005/06, 1999/00, and 1988/89. We’ll like blow past all of those.

 

  • Snow 1
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like S/O/N will come in with the strongest +EPO average on record. 😬

The most +EPO La Niña autumns on record are 2011/12, 2005/06, 1999/00, and 1988/89. We’ll like blow past all of those.

 

I can definitely see January going the 2006 route. Maybe a bit chillier…

  • Like 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

56 and beautiful sunshine.

wow.  what a day.  what happened to the AR?

Does it seem like every rainstorm is now called an AR for dramatic effect by the media?

We used to just have a rain storm and dry off and then have another one.

 

We're actually going to get fire hosed again.  Some years the rain sets up in these concentrated zones (AR) and they can come in bunches.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like S/O/N will come in with the strongest +EPO average on record. 😬

The most +EPO La Niña autumns on record are 2011/12, 2005/06, 1999/00, and 1988/89. We’ll like blow past all of those.

 

It's not a good list to be on. 1988-89 was +QBO winter and so was 1999-2000. 2005-06 and 2011-12 were both -QBO winters. I have a feeling this winter will be warmer than average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like S/O/N will come in with the strongest +EPO average on record. 😬

The most +EPO La Niña autumns on record are 2011/12, 2005/06, 1999/00, and 1988/89. We’ll like blow past all of those.

 

We're getting it out of the way early.  I can see your going to scream EPO nightmare right to the end this time.  Things usually change in the winter vs autumn.  BTW 1988-89 and 2011-12 worked out pretty nicely.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow drift said:

It's not a good list to be on. 1988-89 was +QBO winter and so was 1999-2000. 2005-06 and 2011-12 were both -QBO winters. I have a feeling this winter will be warmer than average.

Even ones like 2007-08 were colder than normal.  Highly unlikely the winter will be warm from the Nina standpoint alone.  Apparently observed weather in the autumn doesn't mean much to some on here.  This autumn has been very akin to ones that lead to our very good winters.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll gladly take bets from anyone who wants to go warm this winter.  Ain't going to happen, even if the EPO is high.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Even ones like 2007-08 were colder than normal.  Highly unlikely the winter will be warm from the Nina standpoint alone.  Apparently observed weather in the autumn doesn't mean much to some on here.  This autumn has been very akin to ones that lead to our very good winters.

The Pacific jet is relentless this year. There is no reason to bet against it. I see it flooding the Conus with warm air for a good portion of the winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like S/O/N will come in with the strongest +EPO average on record. 😬

The most +EPO La Niña autumns on record are 2011/12, 2005/06, 1999/00, and 1988/89. We’ll like blow past all of those.

 

BTW...why isn't 2007 on the list?  I thought that was the gold standard this season.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're getting it out of the way early.  I can see your going to scream EPO nightmare right to the end this time.  Things usually change in the winter vs autumn.  BTW 1988-89 and 2011-12 worked out pretty nicely.

It’s literally the strongest autumn +EPO on record. What else am I supposed to do? Wish it away?

Imagine if this were the coldest Sep-Nov on record in Seattle. You would be screaming from the rooftops about what it means for winter. ;) 

  • Angry 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow drift said:

The Pacific jet is relentless this year. There is no reason to bet against it. I see it flooding the Conus with warm air for a good portion of the winter.

Tell that to the blocking the models are showing going forward.  This type of autumn normally leads to a Pacific shutdown like 2016-17.  We'll see who's right soon enough!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...why isn't 2007 on the list?  I thought that was the gold standard this season.

That was very positive too.

But there was a period of -EPO in November 2007. This year we haven’t even managed that much. At least thus far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s literally the strongest autumn +EPO on record. What else am I supposed to do? Wish it away?

Imagine if this were the coldest Sep-Nov on record in Seattle. You would be screaming from the rooftops about what it means for winter. ;) 

You know full well winter is often a very different pattern than autumn.  You are wrong on this.  Let's talk in a couple of weeks when everything is blocked.

  • Excited 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Phil said:

That was very positive too. But there was a period of -EPO in November.

This year we haven’t even managed that much.

I can't believe how short sighted you're being.  Just assuming this exact same regime will lock in all winter.  It's never that simple.

  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Tell that to the blocking the models are showing going forward.  This type of autumn normally leads to a Pacific shutdown like 2016-17.  We'll see who's right soon enough!

We'll have periods of blocking, but the prevailing theme will be warmer. We will be approaching 60 on Sunday.👺💥

  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You know full well winter is often a very different pattern than autumn.  You are wrong on this.  Let's talk in a couple of weeks when everything is blocked.

I hope you’re right, man. You know me, I love blocking as much as the next guy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Weather arguments. 

It just drives me nuts how some on here completely disregard the observed weather we have seen this autumn and what it normally foretells.

  • Sad 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

We'll have periods of blocking, but the prevailing theme will be warmer. We will be approaching 60 on Sunday.👺💥

It's very early.  1861 had a torch in early December.  So what?

  • Excited 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I really hope people realize how precariously close we are to going into a major arctic pattern. 2 of the pieces are in place. Strong Aleutian ridge and the ridge over us has trended slowly to back offshore with building heights more quickly. We just need the ridge merger now.

I really can't believe that some have jumped to this being a warm winter now.  I think even Phil realizes that isn't likely.  Even bad ones like 1975 and 2007 were colder than normal.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll gladly take bets from anyone who wants to go warm this winter.  Ain't going to happen, even if the EPO is high.

Depends on location. Almost every month is warmer than normal here now. Look back thru the last couple years.

Gonna be warmer than normal…again.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then of course you have this.  These guys are getting paid the big $$$ to make these forecasts.

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook (noaa.gov)

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I really can't believe that some have jumped to this being a warm winter now.  I think even Phil realizes that isn't likely.  Even bad ones like 1975 and 2007 were colder than normal.

Down here 2007 was a dream Winter if you lived above 1000-1500' feet upon feet of snow. Not so lucky for the lowlands though. Oh and the massive 3 day wind storm for the coast.

 

18z is running! C'MON!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Depends on location. Almost every month is warmer than normal here now. Look back thru the last couple years.

Gonna be warmer than normal…again.

Like I say...make your bets.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 178

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 178

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

    3. 178

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...