PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

BTW...1949-50 had nothing until mid December.  Lots of torching early.  It's incredibly short sighted to say the winter is going to be warm based on Nov / early Dec temps.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Rainfall totals ending 4 PM Monday

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

One of these days, I would love to see a neutral winter. The Pacific jet causes too many problems during la niña winters.

The mean for La Nina winters is cold.  2008 and 2016 were our two coldest winters of this century and both were Nina.  If you want a -QBO cold Nina winter check out 1984-85.

[Snownerd3000]

Calling my shot. The historic -pdo overrides the epo. We get our ridge, and an epic 2nd half of December. The cold we see on the deteminstic models will be the teaser to the blast to end the year. 

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The mean for La Nina winters is cold.  2008 and 2016 were our two coldest winters of this century and both were Nina.  If you want a -QBO cold Nina winter check out 1984-85.

I know some of them are cold, but some are warm, too. 1998, 1999, 2005, 2011, 2017, and 2020 were all pretty mild.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z continues the trend of putting a higher percentage of the above normal heights off the coast in the early going.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Calling my shot. The historic -pdo overrides the epo. We get our ridge, and an epic 2nd half of December. The cold we see on the deteminstic models will be the teaser to the blast to end the year. 

Some are getting way too hung up on the -QBO...which isn't even all that minus compared to years like 2007.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think you're going to do fine this winter.  I don't blame you for your attitude at all right now.  I would be beyond bummed being in your shoes over the past few years.

last few years have been warm everywhere 

[snow_wizard]

The thing that's most surprising to me is people aren't waiting to see if the models are actually right about the major blocking coming up or not.  All of this high EPO talk could well be moot in a week.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) Devastating trends. Not looking favorable thus far.

[Gradient Keeper]

That piece of energy is a bu'hole.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

last few years have been warm everywhere 

We're just taking about winter.  There have been way more good bouts of winter in WA than OR the past few years.  Especially if you're talking about OR south of PDX.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) Devastating trends. Not looking favorable thus far.

Looks like July.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

That piece of energy is a bu'hole.

It rearranges later even if we biff the first try.  The blocking is the big prize to begin with.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, snow drift said:

Looks like July.

Just wait and see how the run unfolds.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that's most surprising to me is people aren't waiting to see if the models are actually right about the major blocking coming up or not.  All of this high EPO talk could well be moot in a week.

The list of things we’re all doing wrong is longer than a spoiled eight year old’s Xmas list.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're just taking about winter.  There have been way more good bouts of winter in WA than OR the past few years.  Especially if you're talking about OR south of PDX.

 

[snow drift]

51 here with birds chirping outside

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

last few years have been warm everywhere 

Not in Eureka

[Slushy Inch]

Truly a disgusting 18z run, unless you like inversions

[snow_wizard]

Helluva Kona low on the 18z.  It's going to rearrange.

[Omegaraptor]

Over/under on Bachelor opening all lifts by Christmas?

[Anti Marine Layer]

25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) Devastating trends. Not looking favorable thus far.

Maine keeps getting the good stuff.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Truly a disgusting 18z run, unless you like inversions

Just wait.

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Truly a disgusting 18z run, unless you like inversions

I like inversions and freezing fog. Hey, it's better than nothing.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Maine keeps getting the good stuff.

The blocking is the prize in the early going regardless of how it initially sets up.

[Thunder98]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Maine keeps getting the good stuff.

Lets all move to Maine.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Maine keeps getting the good stuff.

Mr Maine Layer is probably a fan of that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

I like inversions and freezing fog. Hey, it's better than nothing.

I agree.  Many of our coldest winters are a nice mix of real and fake cold.

People really do need to patient here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Over/under on Bachelor opening all lifts by Christmas?

I’m worried it won’t open this year. I’d love to go up there and learn how to do snowshoeing. But it does not appear that snow is in the cards this go around.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree.  Many of our coldest winters are a nice mix of real and fake cold.

People really do need to patient here.

Fake cold....

[AlTahoe]

52 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We'll have periods of blocking, but the prevailing theme will be warmer. We will be approaching 60 on Sunday.

The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol

Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. 

[snow_wizard]

Can't wait to see how the wave coming off of Asia breaks.  Pretty epic amount of above normal heights to work with over the North Pacific.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Lets all move to Maine.

Some like it hot

[snow_wizard]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol

Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. 

Reminds me of the mood on here in 2008.

[snow drift]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol

Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. 

2016 was the last decent December. Nowadays we torch in December and January.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Fake cold....

If it happens with snow on the ground you might think differently.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol

Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. 

Winter starts in February and summer starts in April. It’s the new normal.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2016 was the last decent December. Nowadays we torch in December and January.

And that will change.

Have you noticed the GFS looks a bit different a little deeper into the run?

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2016 was the last decent December. Nowadays we torch in December and January.

Yeah its crazy. 3 of our last 4 winters have come down to a 2 week storm period and that's it. Hopefully this years wasn't the 1 week storm we had in Oct.