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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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This regime is still way too progressive. Vortex in NE-Canada and flat-topped Aleutian ridge ain’t gonna cut it.

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Swing and a miss

500h_anom.na.png

Not exactly a miss.  Nice clipper.  I'll gladly take that at this point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Phil said:

This regime is still way too progressive. Vortex in NE-Canada and flat-topped Aleutian ridge ain’t gonna cut it.

Things are just getting started.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Big ridge is just too far west. This is far better than previous runs though.

Much.

The Pacific gets shut down.

 

cold.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Things are just getting started.

Maybe. Mid/late December has potential. Doesn’t mean it will be realized.

There is a decent chance it could succeed, but also a number of ways for it to implode. 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
I like the improvements this run Day 4 to 7. It allows for optimism.

Agreed.  I think I like it more than you, but you see why I like it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Maybe. Mid/late December has potential. Doesn’t mean it will be realized, though.

There is a decent chance it could succeed, but also a number of ways for it to implode. 

Fair enough.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hopefully we can get an interesting zonal pattern going .

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Day 9 we have a weak NE gradient with a chilly air mass over us.  Could be really chilly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Animation of actual 850mb temps.

Note the migration of the gradient up in the Yukon. Going to be a challenge to push that south absent some -EPO component.

382A4324-B199-4343-8768-C6245B383AAA.gif

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Yup.  Highs mid to upper 30s on this run on day 9.  That's getting somewhere.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not what I see when I close my eyes and envision a Pacific closed for business.

That's why I posted the surface pressure map.  That is pretty dead.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

500h_anom.na.png

That’s taking the 1999 route verbatim. +EPO w/ +NAM building.

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Euro!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

That’s taking the 1999 route verbatim. +EPO w/ +NAM building.

I'm sure that has never happened in a good year. 🙄

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil is certainly in the glass half empty camp right now.  No matter how good something looks it's bad.

We've now graduated from 2007 to the hideous 1999.  Why not try for 1933?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure that has never happened in a good year. 🙄

For Andrew? Sure it has. Plenty of times.

I’m gonna sign off. Don’t want to give you a stroke. :lol: 

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Just now, Phil said:

For Andrew? Sure it has. Plenty of times.

I’m gonna sign off. Don’t want to give you a stroke. :lol: 

That kind of pattern could deliver big time... not so much below 1000’.

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  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

For Andrew? Sure it has. Plenty of times.

I’m gonna sign off. Don’t want to give you a stroke. :lol: 

I think you've kind of gone off the deep end on the doom and gloom this season.  I just don't see it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Phil is certainly in the glass half empty camp right now.  No matter how good something looks it's bad.

What can I say..I haven’t liked any of the pattern developments over the last 7-10 days. And I’m looking hard, from the tropics to the pole(s).

Hope I’m wrong but I think the chances of a 1974/75, 2007/08, 1999/00 type winter are increasing exponentially.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That kind of pattern could deliver big time... not so much below 1000’.

You will have your fun this winter and so will the rest of us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

What can I say..I haven’t liked any of the pattern developments over the last 7-10 days. And I’m looking hard, from the tropics to the pole(s).

Hope I’m wrong but I think the chances of a 1974/75, 2007/08, 1999/00 type winter are increasing exponentially.

I still say it's way too early to put much stock in that.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

What can I say..I haven’t liked any of the pattern developments over the last 7-10 days. And I’m looking hard, from the tropics to the pole(s).

Hope I’m wrong but I think the chances of a 1974/75, 2007/08, 1999/00 type winter are increasing exponentially.

2/3 are good here and probably horrible for many posters in Western Washington and Western Oregon.

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The SPV also looks to remain strong for the foreseeable future (with a pattern that will inhibit +WAFz). Could strengthen even more next month..any SSW signal on seasonal/subseasonal LR guidance has disappeared.

Also the subtropical stratosphere is on fire. Warmest ever observed for a non-volcanic year. Another factor that favors +NAM (thermal wind laws, etc). 

I’d said earlier in the autumn that I thought early season amplification would be crucial to the midwinter evolution. Well..we likely have the strongest (S/O/N trimonthly avg) +EPO on record. Pretty much a worst case outcome.

Nothing is impossible and there are plenty of ways (and plenty of time) to turn things around, but I don’t see it (yet).

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