PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just frustrated that people can't see this the way I do.  I feel like I'm failing in explaining myself.

These model runs are like my gf. Happy, mad, sad, and hungry all in 10 minutes. The model runs are all over the place 

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Historically speaking these excessively wet periods don't drag on for months.  Something has to give.

After November 2006, December was still significantly above average (7.30") and January was above average as well (6.22") at SEA. So not nearly to the same extent as Nov, but still pretty darn wet. Fortunately we had some snow in there as well, so it could stay wet and extra snowy. 

[SnowWillarrive]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Still seems kind of subdued on here today.  It's obvious the pieces are going to be there for cold weather coming up.  There's a good chance it's going to work out.

After all this extreme weather recently it is hard to believe we won’t get hit soon with some cold and snow. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just frustrated that people can't see this the way I do.  I feel like I'm failing in explaining myself.

You have also done the same thing many times and it did not work out.   You are a glass totally full all the time kind of person which is admirable.    But it also means that people will inevitably be skeptical when you are excited about things in the mid and long range.    That is just human nature.  You are explaining everything very well... but people have to see it get closer to believe it.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF is good.  Some lowland snow and decent cold less than a week out.  Just an opening salvo it appears.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just frustrated that people can't see this the way I do.  I feel like I'm failing in explaining myself.

Nah. I think people have just seen the models fall apart so many times. Also we kind of have to high of expectations for such a mild climate.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

These model runs are like my gf. Happy, mad, sad, and hungry all in 10 minutes. The model runs are all over the place 

They're actually kind of consolidating around at least a chilly outcome now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowChild said:

After all this extreme weather recently it is hard to believe we won’t get hit soon with some cold and snow. 

I agree.  Extremes usually beget more extremes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just frustrated that people can't see this the way I do.  I feel like I'm failing in explaining myself.

If you lived down here you would understand.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just frustrated that people can't see this the way I do.  I feel like I'm failing in explaining myself.

I’ve been selling December for almost a year. I couldn’t give two sh*t’s about who’s on board, in board, off board or stiff as a board. It’s coming!!! Just not for at least a couple more weeks.

Take an Ativan and enjoy the ride, Jimbo!

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s about consistency Jim. It’s all just noise at this point. Don’t force us to celebrate with you. I don’t even think it’s negative on here.

Yea. Pretty much this.  I don’t think we are in a bad spot right now. But cheerleading isn’t going to make it snow.  
 

To Me it feels like we will probably see some type of cold air intrusion in the next 10 days. Perhaps even continental but any real arctic pattern will probably hold off for awhile yet. 

[snow_wizard]

Widespread lows in the 20s Saturday night on this ECMWF run.  Now we're getting somewhere.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve been selling December for almost a year. I couldn’t give two sh*t’s about who’s on board, in board, off board or stiff as a board. It’s coming!!! Just not for at least a couple more weeks.

Take an Ativan and enjoy the ride, Jimbo!

Thanks.  I'm just wound up a little bit right now.  I can really feel this one.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

I mean, you were poopooing a wind storm with "lets pull out the forks, non event, no one should get excited, wind is bad" and then a couple hours later it was "oh look, the temps are getting down to 49º, lets get the night shift going"

We like it when you're excited about cold, when you're the first to sniff out snow at hour 385, but it doesn't mean everyone needs to get up and cheer with you. Things pick up around here when something can stay on the runs for more than two days. Even if it starts out at hour 384, if it can stay on the run by day three, then people get excited.

You're right.  I was a bummer about one or two of those windstorms.

[Kolk1604]

At least the GFS is back to cold. 

[snow_wizard]

I like this ECMWF run.  Nothing wild, but a good solid round of chilly weather with a skiff of snow in a few places.  A lot of our greats start out with something like that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

At least the GFS is back to cold. 

The ECMWF is solidly nippy as well.

[ShawniganLake]

Just enough drizzle this morning to remind people it’s been one of the wettest autumns in history.  Around 26” for the season

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thanks.  I'm just wound up a little bit right now.  I can really feel this one.

That’s certainly not lost on anyone right now.

[The Swamp]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thanks.  I'm just wound up a little bit right now.  I can really feel this one.

 

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If you lived down here you would understand.

I don’t know what’s with the heavy N/S gradient in recent years. Feels like NW WA is 54°N coast range BC and the southern Willamette Valley is a few miles over from Bakersfield.

[snow_wizard]

Some overrunning lowland snow on Sunday night on this ECMWF run with a low tracking south.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

 

Lol I always think of the weather maker from TMNT S1 Ep4 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some overrunning lowland snow on Sunday night on this ECMWF run with a low tracking south.

Not really all that exciting.

[van city]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not really all that exciting.

NIPPY is good enough. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I don’t know what’s with the heavy N/S gradient in recent years. Feels like NW WA is 54°N coast range BC and the southern Willamette Valley is a few miles over from Bakersfield.

It's beyond ridiculous at this point.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, van city said:

NIPPY is good enough. 

50F AKA late summer nighttime temperatures are nippy I guess.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not really all that exciting.

Well that’s not Sunday night.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Well that’s not Sunday night.

Sunday might stay below 40F for just the 5th time in the last 3 years.

That's all we got on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sunday might stay in the 40s for just the 5th time in the last 3 years.

That's all we got on this run.

30s you mean? At this point a non inversion based sub 40 high would be a big win. 

[snow_wizard]

Nice improving trend on the EPS over the last 3 or 4 runs.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sunday might stay below 40F for just the 5th time in the last 3 years.

That's all we got on this run.

It's only the beginning.  One accomplishment you can check off the list already if it happens.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

30s you mean? At this point a non inversion based sub 40 high would be a big win. 

Meant to say below 40F. This is the fewest number of sub-40F days in a 2+ year span ever for this location. Easily the worst in the inland PNW except for maybe Roseburg and Medford...maybe.

Might have been different in the past. This is the new normal...period.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not really all that exciting.

That's later than the peak of the cold.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Meant to say below 40F. This is the fewest number of sub-40F days in a 2+ year span ever for this location. Easily the worst in the inland PNW except for maybe Roseburg and Medford...maybe.

Might have been different in the past. This is the new normal...period.

Have you checked out the late 30s / early 40s?  As I've mentioned before that period was horrid.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That's later than the peak of the cold.

We get down to 37F for a high. If that's the highlight of this winter then we have reached a new low.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Have you checked out the late 30s / early 40s?  As I've mentioned before that period was horrid.

Yes. This stretch is worse and there were more sub-freezing highs back in those days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We get down to 37F for a high. If that's the highlight of this winter then we have reached a new low.

That would be pretty chilly. But remember these maps are usually a bit to cold. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That would be pretty chilly. But remember these maps are usually a bit to cold. 

Yup. Should easily make it into the 40s.

[Phil]

Can we just call a spade a spade?

This is the D10 ensemble mean. One of the strongest +NAM/+EPO signals you will ever see.