PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Can we just call a spade a spade?

The EPS at day 10 shows the cold air back up over Alaska... which I have a feeling will just continue our wet pattern.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

A lot of the ocean temp progressions are out of a favorable window by mid Jan. December is probably our chance but I agree with you it isn't happening. Much like you, I think people should be getting excited about your upcoming MLK Day blizzard posts and the winter of 23-24 where the next ice age is going to start picking up. Hopefully by the winter of 29-30 we get a chance at a 2008 repeat.

If I’ve learned anything as a wx weenie it’s that wishcasting generally leads to heartbreak.

Hope for the best, expect the worst.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The EPS at day 10 shows the cold air back up over Alaska... which I have a feeling will just continue our wet pattern.

 

Staring into the void.

Usually I can find something in the system state that offers a potential conduit to blocking/cold within 3-4 weeks, even if it doesn’t ultimately work out.

Right now I can’t find a d**n thing. Sucks.  Hopefully I’m missing something and will be proven laughably wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just hope Oregon has a snow pack this winter. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's beyond ridiculous at this point.

New microclimates

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now we have Phil and Jim playing the extremes. 

[FroYoBro]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Right now we have Phil and Jim playing the extremes. 

Don’t forget Tiger. This place is extra stupid today and it’s not even December yet. 

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Staring into the void.

Usually I can find something in the system state that offers a potential conduit to blocking/cold within 3-4 weeks, even if it doesn’t ultimately work out.

Right now I can’t find a d**n thing. Sucks.  Hopefully I’m missing something and will be proven laughably wrong.

Well a lot of Euro members actually drop that deep trough over Alaska towards our area after day 10.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like a real soaker in the flood zones over the next 24 hours:

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Staring into the void.

Usually I can find something in the system state that offers a potential conduit to blocking/cold within 3-4 weeks, even if it doesn’t ultimately work out.

Right now I can’t find a d**n thing. Sucks.  Hopefully I’m missing something and will be proven laughably wrong.

I would sure love if you were wrong too.    The 10-15 day EPS mean does not offer much hope of enough blocking to bring colder air and shut off the rain.   Cold is just parked over Alaska.

 

 

[Blizzard777]

35 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We get down to 37F for a high. If that's the highlight of this winter then we have reached a new low.

You got it Tiger!  She will now be prompted to give you more

All my windows have the same screensaver on today…..rain

.03 total with rain rate of .01

 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would sure love if you were wrong too.    The 10-15 day EPS mean does not offer much hope of enough blocking to bring colder air and shut off the rain.   Cold is just parked over Alaska.

 

 

That’s a 5 day mean, so the last day or two could be cold. I see the GEFS and euro members dropping a cold trough over us late in the period.

[snow drift]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would sure love if you were wrong too.    The 10-15 day EPS mean does not offer much hope of enough blocking to bring colder air and shut off the rain.   Cold is just parked over Alaska.

 

 

I've seen this movie before. The Alaskan trough is a stable and persistent pattern. 

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just frustrated that people can't see this the way I do.  I feel like I'm failing in explaining myself.

Are you kidding me? Not long ago when some on here were excited at the prospect of a windstorm, you pretty much downright downplayed it and told these people not to get excited because you’re not a “windstorm fan” and you told everyone to put a fork in it 5-6 days out. 
 

Now the models are showing something in the LR and I mean LR and you’re frustrated people aren’t as excited as you? I applauded you yesterday for your optimism and rightfully so because it’s still Nov, but let people feel how they feel about the models without you sideswiping everyone. This happens on a yearly basis with you and how we should be on the Jim train or be scold at.

You also don’t need to explain yourself, enjoy the models for what they are. If you want to get burn like those that wanted the windstorm, by all means.

[Bryant]

20 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks like a real soaker in the flood zones over the next 24 hours:

3" over the next 24 hours in Whatcom County. Brutal

[snow drift]

They are forecasting 54 for Sunday and 55 for Wednesday, the 1st day of meteorological winter. Both highs would be 15-20 degrees above average if they are reached.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow drift said:

They are forecasting 54 for Sunday and 55 for Wednesday, the 1st day of meteorological winter. Both highs would be 15-20 degrees above average if they are reached.

What a way to start the greatest winter of the century. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brrrrr

[VancouverIslandSouth]

6 minutes ago, Bryant said:

3" over the next 24 hours in Whatcom County. Brutal

At least 3" based on that (it's in the 3-5" zone), plus that only include 4pm today to 4pm tomorrow, there will be more rain before and after that. Looks like over 2" here in Victoria as well. It seems like a pretty narrow stream of moisture will make it through the Juan de Fuca with areas north and south getting less. The wind here is currently coming from the NE and that's one of the telltale signs of a big rain event as it enhances precipitations streaming in from the west above.

48 hour totals:

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

That’s a 5 day mean, so the last day or two could be cold. I see the GEFS and euro members dropping a cold trough over us late in the period.

At that range... the 10-15 day mean is usually more meaningful.   What it shows at day 15 will change many times.    

But here is the 12Z EPS at day 15... cold is still parked over Alaska.

[snow drift]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Brrrrr

I hope you have some mittens and a parka.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I've seen this movie before. The Alaskan trough is a stable and persistent pattern. 

that and the +EPO doing work

[Omegaraptor]

What do you guys like more, fan palms or date palms?

Trying to figure out which one I should plant.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

What do you guys like more, fan palms or date palms?

Trying to figure out which one I should plant.

Sabel Palmetto

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabal_palmetto

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

What do you guys like more, fan palms or date palms?

Trying to figure out which one I should plant.

Date palms are the best. You can harvest the fruit, right? Hey, it is nice seeing Alaska cold for once. Eventually that cold will get dislodged and head somewhere.

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yes. This stretch is worse and there were more sub-freezing highs back in those days.

Now that I have this great website, thought I would post the graph, because I was interested in the data. Truly the worst two winter stretch. 1933/34/35 had 6 as did 2002/03/04 while 2019/20/21 has had 5 in Eugene. Hopefully this winter makes up for it.

[Omegaraptor]

Bachelor has thrown in the towel and has no target opening date now.

[Omegaraptor]

Wednesday is December 1. Some favored spots in central OR (Madras/Redmond) could get close to 70.

[Gradient Keeper]

Morning model re-cap

12z GFS Op nice improvement, long range pretty sweet and nice snow storm for PDX/central Willamette Valley. 12z GEFS improved and good signal for possible backdoor cold when looking at Yakima ensembles. After December 4th we return to a full blown La Nina pattern. 12z EURO vastly improved, nice chilly shot. Low snow levels. 12z GEM/CMCE flaming turds inside of a bun dipped in an outhouse of diarrhea lava. It's like a french dip in Au Jus Sauce, but not really.

Onto 00z! but first....

18z GFS in 44 minutes

00z GFS in 6 hours 42 minutes
00z ECMWF in 8 hours 52 minutes

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Tough day to be a Buckeye fan….logging off early to do some soul searching. Be back soon 

[Gradient Keeper]

37 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

At least 3" based on that (it's in the 3-5" zone), plus that only include 4pm today to 4pm tomorrow, there will be more rain before and after that. Looks like over 2" here in Victoria as well. It seems like a pretty narrow stream of moisture will make it through the Juan de Fuca with areas north and south getting less. The wind here is currently coming from the NE and that's one of the telltale signs of a big rain event as it enhances precipitations streaming in from the west above.

48 hour totals:

Good post and info. That looks really bad. Let's shift this Salem southward.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tough day to be a Buckeye fan….logging off early to do some soul searching. Be back soon 

At least you aren't a Washington husky fan, so it could be far worse.

[Slushy Inch]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At that range... the 10-15 day mean is usually more meaningful.   What it shows at day 15 will change many times.    

But here is the 12Z EPS at day 15... cold is still parked over Alaska.

Just saying that I see a progression similar to what the GEFS has. Which ends with favorable 500mb heights. And the Euro kind of mirrors it up to 360 hours, which is impressive agreement.

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

What do you guys like more, fan palms or date palms?

Trying to figure out which one I should plant.

Windmill palms grow quite well in the PNW. Once established it’ll never get cold enough to kill them. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Just saying that I see a progression similar to what the GEFS has. Which ends with favorable 500mb heights.

Me too. I know I've said it, Jim has probably said it, many others have, but this just feels like November 2008 and as we entered December I believe the 3rd or 4th the models abruptly shifted which will go down in history as the best model agreement we've ever seen 8 days out.

00z GFS(December 3rd) in 150 hours 22 minutes
00z GFS(December 4th) in 174 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF(December 3rd) in 152 hours 32 minutes
00z ECMWF(December 4th) in 176 hours 32 minutes

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Me too. I know I've said it, Jim has probably said it, many others have, but this just feels like November 2008 and as we entered December I believe the 3rd or 4th the models abruptly shifted which will go down in history as the best model agreement we've ever seen 8 days out.

00z GFS(December 3rd) in 150 hours 22 minutes
00z GFS(December 4th) in 174 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF(December 3rd) in 152 hours 32 minutes
00z ECMWF(December 4th) in 176 hours 32 minutes

Would have been fun to be model riding back then, but I was only eight. 

[FroYoBro]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tough day to be a Buckeye fan….logging off early to do some soul searching. Be back soon 

Wait, don’t you go to UW? Why are you a Buckeye fan? (Go ducks)

[snow drift]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Me too. I know I've said it, Jim has probably said it, many others have, but this just feels like November 2008 and as we entered December I believe the 3rd or 4th the models abruptly shifted which will go down in history as the best model agreement we've ever seen 8 days out.

00z GFS(December 3rd) in 150 hours 22 minutes
00z GFS(December 4th) in 174 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF(December 3rd) in 152 hours 32 minutes
00z ECMWF(December 4th) in 176 hours 32 minutes

I remember that time period. A lot of people were expecting a retrogression, and we got one. We just had to play the waiting game. 

[van city]

Going East guys. Winter cancel.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Wait, don’t you go to UW? Why are you a Buckeye fan? (Go ducks)

I go to CWU for graduate school, I just happened to be at the Apple Cup yesterday, and I’ve been a life long Buckeyes fan. It gets confusing