PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 This isn't bad.

The torch ends

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Now imagine if that ridge was amplified.

Better than nothing

[Phil]

Flat.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Flat.

Yep, our little ridge still has a training bra.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Call me crazy, but I don't hate the EURO.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Call me crazy, but I don't hate the EURO.

No complaints here. I'll take it.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Call me crazy, but I don't hate the EURO.

Definite improvements with the 12z and now 00z runs.

6z GFS in 2 hours 43 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

@snow_wizard I think you'll like this run, Jim.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's always nice to see the EURO showing a nice run or improvements far more than the GFS. There is that.

[Phil]

[Kolk1604]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Yup showing some snow around day 8

[snow_wizard]

I hope we can all agree this at least looks promising.  That finish on the GFS was incredible.

On the ECMWF, late in the run, it shows a gigantic ridge over over Eastern Asia and the NW Pacific that would force a very deep trough over the Central Pacific and likely a high amp ridge over the GOA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I hope we can all agree this at least looks promising.  That finish on the GFS was incredible.

On the ECMWF, late in the run, it shows a gigantic ridge over over Eastern Asia and the NW Pacific that would force a very deep trough over the Central Pacific and likely a high amp ridge over the GOA.

I'm cautiously optimistic. Still a long ways to go. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Well I am exhausted, so going to bed early. I have to get more sleep. I may be here for 12z runs, the improved 12z runs that is! Wishful thinking. Cautiously optimistic, but can't quite pull the MBG out of the bag. C'MON!!!! Have a great night all.

12z GFS in 8 hours 27 minutes
12z ECMWF in 10 hours 37 minutes

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I hope we can all agree this at least looks promising.  That finish on the GFS was incredible.

On the ECMWF, late in the run, it shows a gigantic ridge over over Eastern Asia and the NW Pacific that would force a very deep trough over the Central Pacific and likely a high amp ridge over the GOA.

I'm down! 

Temps went up abit compared to the 12z. Let's see if they drop again next run

 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I'm down! 

Temps went up abit compared to the 12z. Let's see if they drop again next run

 

At least the basic pattern evolution seems to be more in focus now, and it looks decent.  I'm sure those lows will be frosty away from the big cities.

[snow_wizard]

Let's hope this is just the beginning of some fun model runs and observed weather ahead.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the GFS extended ensemble from yesterday's 0z (it's not updated until late the following day) showed huge promise for early January.  I would love to see January perform this winter.

[snow_wizard]

I'll take one order of the 18z CFS please.  That was one insane run!  Sustained deep cold for weeks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FWIW the GFS extended ensemble from yesterday's 0z (it's not updated until late the following day) showed huge promise for early January.  I would love to see January perform this winter.

I'm sure January will deliver...in 2027 or so.

[Phil]

00z EPS = flat flat flat.

[MossMan]

Windy!

57 degrees. 

[Phil]

Winter of the century?

[Skagit Weather]

Picked up 0.5" on Saturday to bring the monthly total to 9.45". Looks like still another 2-3" incoming. Can confirm that everything is quite soggy.

[Deweydog]

PDX couldn’t get its sh*t in one bag before midnight to set a new record high for the 27th, but at the stroke of midnight they won the 28th!

[Phishy Wx]

lol 55 @12:20am

 

is this Houston?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol 55 @12:20am

 

is this Houston?

The new normal.

52F and partly cloudy. Pretty stars to the south at least.

Still beyond ready to move.

[Meatyorologist]

Holy +AO hell... Difficult to sustain such prolific, widespread midlatitude ridging. Positive height anomalies between 30-60°N at nearly all longitudes. Not even Fairbanks is scoring cold. Only Siberia and Baffin Island. Maybe extreme NNE US.

As I said, hell.

[Meatyorologist]

WTF 

1999-00...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1933-34

[Meatyorologist]

Anyways here's this 33°F thumping at hr 378

[smerfylicious]

It's a tad breezy in Seattle atm. Nice 20mph gusts. Must be part 2 moving in.

[The Blob]

57 at work

[smerfylicious]

That 6z was a pretty good run! 4 shots of snow starting ~hour 168. I'd be looking at a foot in the clown range. Nice n chilly too!

[The Blob]

Nice defined line on my way home

[TT-SEA]

Western WA was one of the warmest places in the entire country overnight...