SalemDuck Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 euro sends the system into Vancouver Island 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Slide that puppy south, right into the mouth of the Columbia pls. Still shaping up to be a decent run, just not as good as GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Just now, smerfylicious said: Slide that puppy south, right into the mouth of the Columbia pls. Still shaping up to be a decent run, just not as good as GFS. Florence please. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Where’s JIM! shopping 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: euro sends the system into Vancouver Island Some consistency on a storm system around then. Could be snow or a major windstorm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 61 and beautiful in The Swamp. Yesterday for the most part was fantastic as well. The AR threat seems to peter out south of Seattle lately. Those folks up north are getting pounded though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Swamp said: Those folks up north are getting pounded though. Can confirm. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 12Z ECMWF is a steaming pile of crap in the long range... lets just keep the AR focus on western WA and SW BC. 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 The wettest precip anomalies over the next 10 days did shift a little north on the 12Z run compared to the 00Z run. But the N/S gradient still persists. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Well this will get people talking this morning... and its within 10 days. Get that inside 3 days, then I'll talk. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Interesting to see how the next few weeks play out. We are working on a 6-7 week blow torch... maybe if we ever flip back cold we can get 2-3 weeks of troughing. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interesting to see how the next few weeks play out. We are working on a 6-7 week blow torch... maybe if we ever flip back cold we can get 2-3 weeks of troughing. With yesterday's +13.6F departure, we have now had 26 double-digit positive temp departures since our last negative double-digit temp departure. Has anyone else on here ever had this happen? I can't find any other instances of it on ACIS. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interesting to see how the next few weeks play out. We are working on a 6-7 week blow torch... maybe if we ever flip back cold we can get 2-3 weeks of troughing. EPO will need to cooperate. oof 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interesting to see how the next few weeks play out. We are working on a 6-7 week blow torch... maybe if we ever flip back cold we can get 2-3 weeks of troughing. Is it ever NOT interesting to see how the next few weeks will play out when it’s 11/28? 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 12Z EPS is not board. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 60F with patchy clouds here in far SE WA. 2 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Kind of unfortunate to see the models becoming less amplified over the last couple of runs. Rather puzzling considering the MJO wave on the latest update was forecast to be stronger than previous runs. This may end up taking a bit longer than it looked yesterday, but we should still see some kind of chilly weather next weekend. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Is it ever NOT interesting to see how the next few weeks will play out when it’s 11/28? A bit more interesting than when it's 11/27 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Very few members send it to an okay spot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 At least the 12Z EPS shifted the focus of the heaviest farther up into BC over the next 10 days compared to the last couple of runs. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 broken record might be time for a new hobby, maybe water polo 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Interestingly the only thing that looks better vs the 0z is the EPS. It's a bit more amplified as we get into week 2 vs earlier runs. Meanwhile I'm approaching a foot of rain IMBY for the month. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 We are pretty close to losing the first two weeks of December. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Assuming the EPS is leading the way on this, the last weeklies update showed big amplification over the GOA around mid December. It's pretty easy to jump the gun as anxious as we all are to get things going. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Lovely tree cutting weather! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Interestingly the only thing that looks better vs the 0z is the EPS. It's a bit more amplified as we get into week 2 vs earlier runs. Meanwhile I'm approaching a foot of rain IMBY for the month. My backyard is absolutely soaked. Really hope the 12z GFS is onto something for next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: We are pretty close to losing the first two weeks of December. Quite often our best winters get going around mid month so it's not time to panic yet. Just a waiting game right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowChild said: My backyard is absolutely soaked. Really hope the 12z GFS is onto something for next weekend. Pretty hard to imagine this firehose not getting shut off at some point. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Quite often our best winters get going around mid month so it's not time to panic yet. Just a waiting game right now. I feel much more confident about the second half of December. We should check with Matt though on this one. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: broken record might be time for a new hobby, maybe water polo I played for five years. I can train you 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 The 12z EPS gets a nice look to it as we get deeper into December. Best looking run yet on that model. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 58F and cloudy but dry for now. Looks like we picked up 0.01" overnight. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The 12z EPS gets a nice look to it as we get deeper into December. Best looking run yet on that model. 4 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Pretty shade of blue on this EPS run. This dovetails with the weeklies pretty nicely. Just noticed the SE ridge signal as well. Hmmmm. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Lovely tree cutting weather! Ventured down to Silverton earlier and the tree farms were packed. A bit muddy, but super mild. My favorite tree cutting memory was 2013, a fresh inch of snow and temps in the teens around 11am. 5 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: D**n! You beat me by a few seconds. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Even though Phil says the PNA doesn’t count for crap around here..I am posting it anyway. 7 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Pretty shade of blue on this EPS run. This dovetails with the weeklies pretty nicely. Just noticed the SE ridge signal as well. Hmmmm. Also dovetails with me heading out of town for a week. I'll be right around that "570" in NE Oklahoma. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Ventured down to Silverton earlier and the tree farms were packed. A bit muddy, but super mild. My favorite tree cutting memory was 2013, a fresh inch of snow and temps in the teens around 11am. That 2013 cold snap was really impressive. Amazing how much that winter was like 1932-33 with the big Feb blast also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I feel much more confident about the second half of December. We should check with Matt though on this one. It’s coming. Jim’s acquiescence today is even more encouraging. Not gonna get a full-on Jimeltdown on 11/28 so it’s the best we can ask for. 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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